{"id":7543,"date":"2024-08-30T13:32:36","date_gmt":"2024-08-30T17:32:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/greatamericanewsdesk.com\/?p=7543"},"modified":"2024-08-30T13:32:37","modified_gmt":"2024-08-30T17:32:37","slug":"nate-silver-reveals-the-one-battleground-state-that-could-cost-kamala-the-white-house","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/greatamericanewsdesk.com\/2026\/nate-silver-reveals-the-one-battleground-state-that-could-cost-kamala-the-white-house\/njackson\/2024\/08\/","title":{"rendered":"Nate Silver Reveals The One Battleground State\u00a0That Could Cost Kamala The White House"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Polling and data guru Nate Silver said Thursday that Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to be a &#8220;slight underdog&#8221; in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state with 19 electoral college points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Silver, a prominent elections analyst and statistician,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/pennsylvania-may-be-a-problem-for?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=1198116&amp;post_id=148272825&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=8atam&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">wrote on Substack<\/a>&nbsp;that while Harris is leading by 3.8 points in his national poll tracker and is slated to win the popular vote, his nuanced election forecast model predicts former President Trump is electorally favored to win the White House by a 52.4% chance, versus Harris, who now shows a 47.3% chance of pulling off an electoral victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Kamala Harris had one of her worst days in some time in our forecast on Thursday despite gaining in our national polling average,&#8221; Silver wrote.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>But, he continued, &#8220;There\u2019s another, longer-term concern for Harris, though: it\u2019s been a while since we\u2019ve seen a poll showing her ahead in Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than a third of time in our model.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest Emerson College swing state poll shows&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-election-in-swing-states\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Trump and Harris tied<\/a>&nbsp;at 48% each in Pennsylvania.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;The model puts a lot of weight on this recent data because of all the changes in the race,&#8221; Silver explained. &#8220;And you can see why it thinks this is a problem for her: if she\u2019s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>At the current date, Silver said his model shows a 17% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, calling it &#8220;a big concern for her campaign all along.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;If she won the popular vote nationally by between 1 and 2 points, for instance, the model estimates that she\u2019d still be a 70\/30 underdog in the Electoral College,&#8221; he wrote.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, Silver acknowledged that Harris&#8217; unusually late entry into the race could skew his forecast results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;While there\u2019s a solid basis for this empirically, you could argue we\u2019re under unusual circumstances because of her late entry into the race. So if you want to treat all of this as a little fuzzier than usual, I don\u2019t really mind that,&#8221; he wrote.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Polling and data guru Nate Silver said Thursday that Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to be a &#8220;slight underdog&#8221; in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state with 19 electoral college points. Silver, a prominent elections analyst and statistician,&nbsp;wrote on Substack&nbsp;that while Harris is leading by 3.8 points in his national poll tracker and is slated [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,26],"tags":[327,892,184,1194,516,285],"class_list":["post-7543","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-28","category-news","tag-327","tag-battleground-states","tag-kamala-harris","tag-nate-silver","tag-pennsylvania","tag-polls"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Nate Silver Reveals The One Battleground State\u00a0That Could Cost Kamala The White House - Great America News Desk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/greatamericanewsdesk.com\/2026\/nate-silver-reveals-the-one-battleground-state-that-could-cost-kamala-the-white-house\/njackson\/2024\/08\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nate Silver Reveals The One Battleground State\u00a0That Could Cost Kamala The White House - Great America News Desk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Polling and data guru Nate Silver said Thursday that Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to be a &#8220;slight underdog&#8221; in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state with 19 electoral college points. 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