According to\u00a0The New York Times\u2019<\/em>\u00a0chief political analyst and pollster\u00a0Nate Cohn silent Trump supporters could skew poll results once again, leaving prognosticators scratching their skulls in the finals hours before Election Day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Times<\/em> reported in Arizona,\u00a0Donald Trump\u00a0leads\u00a0Kamala Harris\u00a0by four points, and in Michigan, he has a one-point advantage. Harris, on the other hand, is beating Trump by one in Georgia, and three in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Sunday, the\u00a0Times\u00a0<\/em>and Siena College released their final poll from the seven battleground states, and the results were inconclusive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In his write-up of the results, Cohn submitted that they don\u2019t \u201cpoint toward a relatively clear favorite\u201d for a few reasons, even if Harris was perhaps slightly more pleased by its finding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cOn average, Ms. Harris fared modestly better than our last round of surveys of the same states, but her gains were concentrated in states where she was previously struggling,\u201d he wrote. \u201cMeanwhile, the so-called Blue Wall (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) does not look quite as formidable of an obstacle to Mr. Trump as it once did. As a result, Ms Harris\u2019s position in the Electoral College isn\u2019t necessarily improved.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n Cohn<\/a> also warned<\/a> that nonresponse bias from Republicans may be continuing to skew the results, just as they did in 2016 and 2020:<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s hard to measure nonresponse bias \u2014 after all, we couldn\u2019t reach these demographically similar voters \u2014 but one measure I track from time to time is the proportion of Democrats or Republicans who respond to a survey, after considering other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That\u2019s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it\u2019s not much better than our final polls in 2020 \u2014 even with the pandemic over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again,\u201d he concluded.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n\n
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