New districts could cement GOP control for years to come…
President Donald Trump is pushing Texas Republicans to redraw the state’s congressional map in a bid to add five new GOP-friendly U.S. House seats ahead of the next year’s midterms, according to Punchbowl News and other outlets.
Texas currently holds 38 House seats — 25 Republican, 13 Democrat. To carve out more red territory, state lawmakers would need to undertake a mid-decade redistricting effort, something rarely attempted. GOP leaders plan to tackle it during a special legislative session starting July 21.
Critics have called the move a blatant power grab, warning it could dilute Black and Latino voting strength and open the door to racial gerrymandering lawsuits. Some Republicans agree the plan is a legal and political gamble, potentially weakening solid red seats by spreading GOP voters too thin.
Still, Trump and Governor Greg Abbott remain steadfast — with supporters citing the GOP’s razor-thin House majority and rumblings of a potential blue wave in 2026. For the president, the redistricting effort is a preemptive strike to fortify the party’s grip where it’s strongest.
Critics argue the state’s 2021 maps already wrung every possible advantage for the GOP. “Crocodile tears,” is how Rice University political scientist Mark P. Jones described Democratic outrage, noting the existing lines were carefully engineered to protect Republican incumbents — not expand their reach.
Jones warned that any map changes would hurt sitting Republicans and carry a serious risk of political blowback, according to The Dallas Morning News:
“Texas Democrats want Republicans to engage in this redistricting, because they’ll be able to, from a PR perspective, use it to criticize Republicans for trying to stack the deck and change the rules and manipulate the districts for political gain,” Jones said. “But at the same time, those Democrats know that those new districts will actually be more favorable for Texas Democrats than the current districts.”
Abbott’s redistricting effort was prompted by a letter this week from the Department of Justice, which raised concerns over the legality of four districts in Houston and the Dallas area that have non-white majority populations. All four districts strongly lean sharply to the left, and voters in each district elected Democrats by margins greater than 30 points.
While Republicans have little left to gain in Dallas or Houston, the GOP sees opportunity in South Texas — where Trump-era gains have reshaped the political map. But redrawing lines there could backfire, potentially making neighboring red districts more competitive for Democrats, who pushed their statewide vote share up to 46% in recent cycles.
Redistricting expert Michael Li, of NYU’s Brennan Center for Justice, warned the GOP effort could turn into a “dummymander” — a gerrymander that overreaches and ultimately backfires:
That happened in Arkansas in 2013 after that state’s Democratic-led legislature redrew congressional districts to elect a second Democrat to Washington. Instead, Republicans won all four of the state’s seats and have held them since.
“When you gerrymander, you’re making a bet that you know what the politics of the future look like,” Li said. “That’s a very hard thing to predict in Texas, because the state is changing so fast.”
Nevertheless, success could deliver Texas Republicans a crucial edge going into a volatile 2026 cycle. The question is whether the courts — and the electorate — will let it happen.
