In a stunning political reversal, new polling shows that naturalized immigrant voters — once seen as a reliable Democratic voting bloc — are now favoring President Donald Trump and his immigration policies, delivering a serious blow to the Democratic Party’s long-term strategy of winning elections through mass migration and demographic shifts.
CNN’s polling analyst Harry Enten revealed a dramatic change: immigrant voters, who gave Democrats a 32-point advantage in 2020, have swung right by 40 points. Republicans now lead among legal immigrant voters by 8 points — a staggering shift that few analysts saw coming.
“More so than any group I can find, the voters who’ve become more hawkish on immigration are immigrants themselves,” Enten said. “They’ve gone from sympathy for illegal immigrants to a clear preference for stronger borders and enforcement — and they’re aligning with Trump.”
In 2016, Trump received just 36% of the vote from naturalized citizens. That number jumped to 47% in 2024, with early 2025 polling suggesting the trend is continuing. Immigrant voters cite economic hardship, crime, and perceived unfairness in the immigration system as key reasons for the shift. Many are frustrated that they followed the legal process only to see unchecked illegal immigration flood the labor market and strain public services.
The frustration is especially acute among working-class immigrants, who face direct competition for jobs, housing, and school resources. Many now feel that the Biden administration’s immigration policies — spearheaded by DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas — have placed the interests of illegal border crossers ahead of those who played by the rules.
For years, Democrats openly embraced a long-term strategy to shift the electoral balance through high levels of immigration. Influential think tanks like the Progressive Policy Institute argued that growing diversity would create an enduring Democratic majority. But the strategy assumed that legal immigrants would remain politically aligned with newer arrivals — an assumption increasingly proven false.
This polling shift places Democrats in a bind: if they reduce migration, they’ll lose the influx of potential future voters. But if they continue mass migration, they risk alienating the immigrants already here — many of whom are becoming increasingly aligned with Trump’s America First policies.
Since returning to office in January, Trump has taken aggressive steps to reverse Biden-era immigration policies. Illegal border crossings have plummeted, and employers are reporting tighter labor markets, especially in the construction and service industries — leading to slow but steady wage increases for lower-income Americans.
The shift among immigrant voters adds to a growing list of Democratic vulnerabilities. Latinos, black voters, and even younger voters have begun drifting away from the party, especially in response to crime, inflation, and identity politics. Trump’s immigration stance — once demonized as “xenophobic” — now resonates as a defense of legal immigration and national sovereignty.
A recent poll found that 59% of Americans supported Trump’s crackdown on violent protests in Los Angeles following ICE raids, which saw rioters waving foreign flags and attacking police. Among naturalized citizens, support for the crackdown was even higher.
