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New York Times Pollster Warns That Shy Trump Voters Could Be Skewing Surveys — Again

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Famartin, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

The silent red tsunami could be on the horizon…

According to The New York Times’ chief political analyst and pollster Nate Cohn silent Trump supporters could skew poll results once again, leaving prognosticators scratching their skulls in the finals hours before Election Day.

The Times reported in Arizona, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by four points, and in Michigan, he has a one-point advantage. Harris, on the other hand, is beating Trump by one in Georgia, and three in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

On Sunday, the Times and Siena College released their final poll from the seven battleground states, and the results were inconclusive.

In his write-up of the results, Cohn submitted that they don’t “point toward a relatively clear favorite” for a few reasons, even if Harris was perhaps slightly more pleased by its finding.

“On average, Ms. Harris fared modestly better than our last round of surveys of the same states, but her gains were concentrated in states where she was previously struggling,” he wrote. “Meanwhile, the so-called Blue Wall (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) does not look quite as formidable of an obstacle to Mr. Trump as it once did. As a result, Ms Harris’s position in the Electoral College isn’t necessarily improved.”

Cohn also warned that nonresponse bias from Republicans may be continuing to skew the results, just as they did in 2016 and 2020:

It’s hard to measure nonresponse bias — after all, we couldn’t reach these demographically similar voters — but one measure I track from time to time is the proportion of Democrats or Republicans who respond to a survey, after considering other factors.

Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over.

“It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again,” he concluded.

Trump Intentionally Drives Dems Crazy With Third Term Talk

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Photo via Gage Skidmore Flickr

Trump knows exactly how to drive Democrats crazy…

Trump has occasionally suggested he may run for a third term and even has “Trump 2028” hats in the Oval Office, much to the chagrin of his Democrat rivals.

On Monday, Trump declined to rule out running again when asked by a reporter which has prompted a fresh wave of meltdowns from liberal lawmakers and pundits.

The President made the admission while aboard Air Force One as it headed to South Korea on Tuesday night, or late Wednesday morning, local time.

“I would say that, if you read it, it’s pretty clear,” Trump said, referring to the Constitution during an in-flight gaggle with reporters. “I’m not allowed to run. It’s too bad. I mean, it’s too bad. But we have a lot of great people.”

On Monday, Trump also said Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marc Rubio would be great Republican presidential nominees, setting up a potential rivalry between the two ahead of 2028.

A number of Republicans have claimed that Trump could in theory serve another term in the White House, potentially even as Vice President.

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) suggested that the president “might be able to go around the Constitution” to serve a third term.

“If you read the Constitution, it says it’s not [possible],” Tuberville stated. “But if he says he has some different circumstances that might be able to go around the Constitution. But that’s up to him. We got a long way to go before that happens.”

Serving a third term is not “up to” the president.

A reporter then said, “But you’re open to it?”

“Well, I think that there’s going to be– have to have to be an evaluation from President Trump’s viewpoint to the Constitution,” the senator replied. “There will be a lot of legal aspects to it. Will it happen? It’s very unlikely. But, don’t ever close the book on President Trump.”

His former adviser, Steve Bannon, has ralso epeatedly claimed Trump can serve another term and that “there’s a plan” in place, and that the president will win in 2028.

However, despite some calls for Trump to potentially amend the Constitution, House Speaker Mike Johnson soundly rejected the proposal earlier this week.

“I think the president knows, and he and I have talked about the constrictions of the Constitution,” the speaker said. “I don’t see a way to amend the Constitution, because it takes 10 years to do that.”

Despite the glaring Constitutional issues associated with President Donald Trump serving a third term- which Trump has openly admitted to- Democrats still can’t pass on an opportunity to stage a meltdown over the matter.

California Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom said he is “deeply concerned” about remarks from President Donald Trump and his close allies about possibly seeking a third term in 2028.

Newsom, who is widely considered a potential 2028 presidential contender himself, was asked by ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl if he takes such talk seriously.

“They’re not screwing around,” Newsom said.

Tim Walz Says He Was Selected As 2024 Running Mate ‘To Code Talk To White Guys’

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The truth comes out…

Former vice presidential nominee Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) is pulling back the curtain on the reasoning behind Democrats’ disastrous 2024 election decision-making.

The unsuccessful vice presidential candidate who is currently on a self-described “listening tour” across the country at a Harvard Kennedy School forum on Monday night said Harris chose him to be her running mate, in part, because, “I could code talk to White guys watching football, fixing their truck” and “put them at ease.”

Office of Governor Tim Walz & Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

The Minnesota governor described himself as the “permission structure” for White men from rural America to vote for Democrats. 

“I think I’ll give you pretty good stuff, but I’ll also give you 10% problematic,” Walz added when pushed by moderator Brittany Shepherd, ABC News national political reporter, about why he didn’t take that message to cable news to reach a larger audience. Walz laughed off criticism over inconsistencies in his background on the 2024 campaign trail, describing himself as a “knucklehead.”

Despite the claim the Walz was chosen by the Harris campaign to relate to White men, he has been unable to escape the nickname “Tampon Tim,” coined by conservatives for his bill providing free menstrual products to “all menstruating students” in school restrooms grades 4 to 12, including the boys’ room. (RELATED: Watch: Veterans Heckle Tim Walz For Stolen Valor Claims, China Ties)

Regardless of the comment or legislation, conservatives find a way to criticize “Tampon Tim,” including when Walz claimed he could fight most Trump supporters earlier this year. (RELATED: Tim Walz Complains About Attacks On His Masculinity)

Earlier this month, Walz confirmed to CNN’s Jake Tapper that he was considering a third bid for Minnesota governor but was not mulling a run for president in 2028.

When asked what he would have done differently in 2024, Walz replied, “We would have won.” While acknowledging that Democrats lost in November, Walz said the party is “better off doing more” in “every forum,” following criticism that Democrats didn’t prioritize media appearances enough in 2024, whether long-form podcasts or traditional network news shows. 

Further reflecting on the Democrats’ 2024 losses, Walz said the party wins on the issues and “competency,” but “we lose the message, and we lose power.”

“Why have we lost the self-identity that the Democratic Party is for personal freedoms, middle-class folks, for labor folks. How did we lose it, where people didn’t self-identify with that? How did we get to a point where people didn’t feel like this was an important enough election to get out and vote?” Walz asked during his speech Monday. 

Does Walz stand any chance of rebuilding his political reputation? Tell us what you think in the comments below!

Chris Cuomo Slams Democrats For Not Criticizing Kamala Harris ‘Because Trump’

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Gage Skidmore Flickr

The hard truth…

Chris Cuomo called out Democrats for their apparent refusal to criticize Vice President Kamala Harris since she became the Democrat’s nominee for president.

On Tuesday’s episode of The Chris Cuomo Project, the former CNN and current NewsNation anchor claimed her supporters now treat her like “Black female Jesus” when, according to him, many of them didn’t even like her just months prior.

“Kamala Harris is not a godsend, alright?” Cuomo said. “You people didn’t even like her six months ago! Now, all of the sudden, she’s black female Jesus the way [Barack Obama] was Black Jesus. And let me tell you something: he had a lot more going for him than Kamala Harris does — and not just as firsts go — but his type of campaigning, his type of persuasion his charisma. He was imbued with things that she is not. And I don’t mean that as a criticism. It’s just a point of comparison. And her process fucked her also. There’s a convenience in it, but it fucked her also because there are a lot of misgivings about her. There is an underlying feeling that she didn’t get this the right way, she may not have won a primary. She didn’t even make it to the first round of primaries when she did run; and that is both fair and unfair at the same time.”

Cuomo then claimed Democrats refuse to criticize her as she’s running against Donald Trump. He believes that’s a mistake.

“But look, this idea of, ‘Don’t say anything bad about her because Trump,’ I don’t buy that,” he continued. “I don’t buy that, and it’s not how you get to a better place. It’s a relative assessment. She has negatives. So does he. Does he have more? Yeah. He also has a way more intense following. That’s why this race is so tight. Now explain that to me. Unless you want to write off half this country as bigots, how do you explain it being so tight? Maybe you’re not as right about everything as you think you are. Maybe you should be a little bit more to open to the people that you disagree with. Maybe they’re not all racists.”

Report: Pete Hegseth Discussed Leaving Pentagon Post For Public Office

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Missvain, CC BY 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has reportedly had discussions about resigning from his role in the Pentagon to run for political office next year.

If Hegseth were to follow through with a political campaign, it would amount to a major leadership shake-up at the department that oversees the American military and millions of federal employees. The Defense Department bars civilian employees from running for political office, meaning Hegseth would have to resign to do so.

By Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America – Pete Hegseth, CC BY-SA 2.0

In a statement, Sean Parnell, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman, said, “Hegseth’s focus remains solely on serving under President Trump.”

NBC reports:

One of the people said their discussion with Hegseth happened within the past three weeks and that it was serious, not simply spitballing ideas. The other person, who also characterized it as serious, wouldn’t say when they had spoken — except that it was since Hegseth became defense secretary in January. The two sources, along with others in this article, were granted anonymity to speak candidly.

The discussions centered on what it would take to run. One person said they discussed the eligibility requirements to run for governor of Tennessee and Hegseth’s chances of winning. The other person said they talked with Hegseth about the realities of a campaign.

The sources said Hegseth has mentioned a 2026 gubernatorial run in his home state of Tennessee, where Governor Bill Lee is term-limited.

David B. Gleason from Chicago, IL, CC BY-SA 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

However, officials close to Hegseth have strongly refuted the rumors that the Pentagon chief is planning an early exit.

Parnell said in the statement: “Fake news NBC is so desperate for attention, they are shopping around a made up story… again. Only two options exist: either the ‘sources’ are imaginary or these reporters are getting punked. Secretary Hegseth’s focus remains solely on serving under President Trump and advancing the America First mission at the Department of Defense.”

Others in Hegseth’s orbit said he doesn’t plan to launch a campaign. A person who spoke with the secretary last week asked him about speculation that he was looking for an off-ramp from being defense secretary, such as running for political office in Tennessee. This person said Hegseth was “very, very clear” that he wasn’t going to run and denied even considering it. The idea, this person said, is “totally off the table.”

NBC News reported that a longtime Trump adviser familiar with political discussions around Hegseth said he won’t run for office in Tennessee.

Hegseth, a former Army National Guard officer and Fox News host, has campaigned for political office before. He ran for the U.S. Senate in his home state, Minnesota, in 2012 and withdrew after he failed to win the GOP nomination.

Romney To Align With Dems To Quash Impeachment – But There’s A Catch

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Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons

Republican Sen. Mitt Romney (Utah) is poised to betray the Republican Party yet again.

The Anti-Trump Senator told Axios that he would be willing to dismiss articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. However, Romney included one stipulation for this vote, there must be a debate.

In the report by Stef W. Kight and Stephen Neukam, Romney indicated that he could vote with his Democrat colleagues in the Senate to end the historic impeachment by House Republicans. However, while he was skeptical about whether the allegations rose to a constitutional standard, Romney did insist that there should be a debate, even a brief one, to address the charges:

I don’t believe there’s a constitutional standard met. But at the same time, I think the Senate should give a chance for debate, even if it’s limited to two hours.

He added:

So if there’s a motion just to table without any discussion, that’s something I would oppose. If there’s a provision that allows debate, it’s something I’d be open to.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has publicly opposed the politically-motivated impeachment, but has not made clear what he plans to do. It takes a two-thirds majority to convict someone who has been impeached, and in the Democratic-led Senate, such a vote is highly unlikely. 

NYC Mayoral Candidate Kicks Off Anti-Trump Tour

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By Bingjiefu He - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0,

New York City’s Socialist mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani is officially launching his “Five Boroughs Against Trump” tour in the Big Apple.

Mamdani kicked off his anti-Trump tour alongside Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) in Manhattan on Monday morning. He reportedly plans to visit Brooklyn on Tuesday, Staten Island on Wednesday, the Bronx on Thursday and Queens on Friday, Fox News has confirmed

The 33-year-old self-described socialist’s tour is a rejection of the Trump administration’s sweeping second-term agenda and his so-called “authoritarian” attack on working New Yorkers, specifically, immigration and health care reform. 

“There is no borough that will be free from Trump’s cruelty,” Mamdani said on Monday. “We will feel the pain of this legislation, whether we are in Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx, Queens or Staten Island, and we will shine a light this week and every week on the costs of this vision that is coming out of Washington, D.C.”

Donald Trump is waging a full-scale assault on American democracy, dismantling our institutions, attacking our universities and our scientific research base, using government power to serve himself and his donors, and targeting New York City because New Yorkers have always seen him for what he is – a narcissistic, wannabe dictator,” Nadler said during the event on Monday.

Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams are also running as an independents, and CEO of the Guardian Angels, Curtis Sliwa, is the Republican nominee. 

“Comrade Mamdani is the American people’s worst nightmare,” White House spokeswoman, Abigail Jackson, told Fox News Digital. “His communist policies will crater our economy, increase crime, crowd out Americans with free health care for illegal immigrants, and defund the brave men and women of law enforcement who keep us safe.”

The White House added that “Mamdani’s idea of ‘immigration reform’ is no borders and amnesty for all the violent criminal illegal aliens that Joe Biden released into our country. The American people have repeatedly rejected this Communist agenda and the more Mamdani shares his radical policies, the more the American people will recoil.” 

The New York Times reported last week that Trump recently spoke on the phone with Cuomo and has been speaking with associates about which candidate has the best chance to beat Mamdani in November. Meanwhile, Mamdani has described how his administration would be Trump’s “worst nightmare.”

“We see far too many parallels between Donald Trump and Andrew Cuomo, far too many stories that make clear that both administrations have been characterized by corruption, by a sense of impunity, by an inability of an executive to understand that no means no, a prioritization of the interests of billionaires over working people, and an agenda that is driven by little else beyond the retention and accumulation of power,” Mamdani said Monday. 

Potential Cabinet Shifts As Trump Approaches One Year Back In Office

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As President Donald Trump approaches the one-year mark of his second term, the White House is preparing for the possibility of limited Cabinet adjustments — a normal process in any administration and one that officials stress is not indicative of instability.

Unlike Trump’s first term, which saw high turnover across many departments, the president’s current Cabinet has been deliberately steady. Senior officials say this has been intentional to reinforce continuity and reliability during the administration’s first year. While internal discussions about potential future changes have occurred, the White House maintains that no decisions have been made and no changes are expected before early next year.

White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt dismissed speculation about looming resignations, saying: “The cabinet is not changing no matter how much CNN wishes that it would because it thrives off drama.”

Department of Homeland Security: Praise for Noem, Scrutiny of Lewandowski

One of the departments that has drawn attention is the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), led by Secretary Kristi Noem. Trump has made immigration enforcement a central focus of his second-term agenda, and DHS has been central to carrying out those policies.

Multiple sources emphasized that the president remains pleased with Noem’s leadership. A senior White House official reiterated Trump’s confidence, saying: “The President loves Kristi. He loves the job she’s doing.”

However, internal friction has emerged around Corey Lewandowski, a longtime Trump ally who joined DHS as a special government employee with temporary status. His close working relationship with Noem has prompted speculation that the pair might eventually depart together if changes were made.

Lewandowski, who previously helped run Trump’s 2016 campaign, has taken an active role inside the department. Sources told CNN he has directed personnel changes, overseen administrative leave requests, and pushed senior leaders to accelerate deportation-related programs. While supporters view him as an enforcer of the administration’s priorities, others within the White House believe his management style has caused tension.

A person close to the White House noted that concerns have been raised internally: “Yes, he likes [Noem], but it has been brought to his attention that [Lewandowski] is a problem, and the agency is being mismanaged because of it.”

The White House and DHS pushed back strongly on that interpretation. White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson highlighted DHS’s results under Trump and Noem, saying:
“The tremendous results coming from the Department of Homeland Security … speak for themselves.”

A DHS spokesperson added that Lewandowski “has a reputation of reprimanding officials who impede or slow down the administration and undermine the will of the American people.”

In September, Trump met with Noem and Lewandowski to discuss DHS operations. According to two people familiar with the meeting, the conversation became tense at times — particularly between Lewandowski and the president — though Noem’s standing with Trump was not affected.

Department of Energy: Questions Around Secretary Chris Wright

The Department of Energy, led by former Colorado energy executive Chris Wright, is another agency where speculation has surfaced. Sources say some White House officials believe Wright has been reluctant on certain campaign-promised initiatives and that his department has faced senior-level turnover.

Energy Department spokeswoman Taylor Rogers defended Wright’s performance, saying:
“Secretary Wright has been working lockstep with President Trump since day one to restore America’s energy dominance.”
She added that U.S. oil production hit a record high in July under Trump’s policies.

Past Discussions About Other Cabinet Members

This is not the first time internal debate about Cabinet roles has surfaced. Earlier discussions took place around Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth after an accidental sharing of sensitive information, and Trump had expressed frustration over Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s stance on Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Both remained in their posts.

An upcoming Pentagon inspector general report on Hegseth’s messaging incident could renew attention but is not expected to carry formal consequences.

Youngkin Seen as a Potential Future Administration Pick

With Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin leaving office in January due to term limits, several Republicans close to Trump believe he may be considered for a future Cabinet position if an opening arises. Although the two men have not directly discussed a role, Youngkin has been publicly supportive of the president.

During a call with supporters, Youngkin told Trump:
“Mr. President, I want to thank you… I know that you will always put America first.”

Trump returned the praise, calling Youngkin “one of the great governors in our country.”

Sources say Youngkin would be interested in a position with an economic or business focus, while likely avoiding an immigration-first role such as DHS.

Routine Evolution in Any Administration

Cabinet adjustments are not unusual. During President Biden’s term, changes occurred at the Departments of Housing and Urban Development and Labor. Trump officials emphasize that any future changes would be part of routine administrative alignment, not broader turmoil.

Centrist Republicans Float Re-electing McCarthy as House Speaker In Wake of Israel Attacks

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Photo via Gage Skidmore Flickr

The old saying goes “the more things change the more they stay the same…”

Some Republicans are mulling a move to reinstate Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) as House Speaker in the wake of the deadly attacks in Israel.

On Saturday morning, Palestine militant group Hamas launched its surprise attack on Israel, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare war on the organization and order retaliatory action.

“Israel attacks have moderates holding out for the one person who can truly unite us: Kevin McCarthy,” a House GOP lawmaker said.

Last week, McCarthy was ousted by the votes of eight Republicans and all House Democrats thanks to a rule change McCarthy agreed to when he was elected speaker.

However, handing McCarthy back the Speaker’s gavel is an uphill battle due to the support Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) have already garnered. Last week, former President Donald Trump threw his support behind Jordan for Speaker.

McCarthy, for his part, is “aware and grateful” for the efforts to reinstate him, but he’s not engaging at this point, the House GOP lawmaker said.

However, some Republicans are optimistic that it could be done, given the severity of the attack in Israel. They believe the urgency surrounding the attacks could pressure the eight House Republicans who voted to oust McCarthy to switch their stance. Many Republicans are still upset with those who voted against McCarthy, who is a vocal supporter of Israel, and are “using this moment to show how wrong they were,” per the House GOP lawmaker.

“A short window is all we need in the House to reinstate Kevin McCarthy and change the rule,” Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) said.

House Republicans plan on meeting behind closed doors on Monday to hash out details and differences of opinion. On Tuesday, there will be a candidate forum to hear the pros and cons of each speaker candidate.

The conference plans to hold a secret vote on Wednesday to see who it wants to nominate for speaker on the floor. The nomination will go to whichever candidate secures a majority of the GOP conference. That figure could be as low as 113, including the three nonvoting GOP delegates to the House. If all 435 House members participate, a successful candidate will need 217 votes to become speaker.

RFK Jr. Drops Out Of Race, Endorses Trump

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UPDATE (3:03 p.m. ET):

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. confirmed the suspension of his campaign. Although his name will still appear on the ballot in red and blue states, he will be removing his name from the ballot in the 10 competitive states. In those competitive states, he is encouraging his supporters to vote for Donald Trump.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE:

PHOENIX – Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the most prominent independent presidential candidate, has suspended his campaign and endorsed former President Donald Trump, a move that could dramatically shift the dynamics of an already close presidential race. The announcement follows extensive negotiations between both campaigns.

CNN reported Friday that Kennedy had dropped an attempt to get on the ballot in Pennsylvania. In a filing, he wrote, “It is a result of today’s endorsement of Trump.”

Watch:

Negotiations Behind the Scenes

The possibility of Kennedy endorsing Trump arguably overshadowed the Democratic National Convention, where party leaders celebrated, even as the potential impact of his endorsement loomed large.

Speculation and Statements from Kennedy’s Campaign

It appeared increasingly likely over the course of this week that Kennedy would drop out and endorse the former president. Multiple sources told ABC News on Wednesday that RFK Jr. planned to endorse Trump for president at a live press conference on Friday at 2 p.m. ET in Phoenix, Arizona.

When asked about the reports, Kennedy neither confirmed nor denied the claim. A spokesperson for Kennedy’s campaign hinted earlier on Wednesday that the candidate would be addressing the “present historical moment” and outlining his “path forward” in his Friday remarks.

Hints of an Alliance from Nicole Shanahan

Speculation erupted after Kennedy’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, mentioned the possibility of an alliance with Trump during an interview on Tuesday. Shanahan said that their campaign was drawing more support from Trump’s base than from Kamala Harris, raising concerns about inadvertently aiding a Harris victory by staying in the race.

“There’s two options that we’re looking at and one is staying in, forming that new party, but we run the risk of a Kamala Harris and Walz presidency because we draw votes from Trump, or we draw somehow more votes from Trump,” Shanahan said.

Aiming to Avoid the “Spoiler” Label

Shanahan, a billionaire attorney from Silicon Valley, emphasized that Kennedy campaign’s goal was not to act as a spoiler. “I did not put in tens of millions of dollars to be a spoiler candidate,” she said. “I put in tens of millions of dollars to win, to fix this country, to do the right thing. We don’t want to be a spoiler.”

The Current State of the Race

The latest RealClearPolitics polling average shows a razor-thin margin in the decisive battleground states. Trump currently holds narrow leads in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, while Harris leads in Wisconsin and Michigan by small margins.

So, what do you think? Do you believe Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Donald Trump will significantly impact the outcome of the 2024 presidential election? We welcome your thoughts in the comments below!

This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.