The high-stakes Wisconsin Supreme Court race shaped up to be competitive as predicted, with control of the court—and potentially the future of election law, redistricting and abortion access in the battleground state—hanging in the balance.
However, the end result saw Susan Crawford, a liberal-leaning Dane County Circuit Court Judge, defeat Brad Schimel, a conservative Waukesha County Circuit Court Judge, preserving the court’s 4-3 liberal majority until at least 2028.
As The Hill reports, Tuesday night’s outcome comes as a blow to President Donald Trump and Elon Musk:
The election offered the first big test for both parties since the November elections and came after record-breaking amounts of money poured into the race. In particular, the race was seen as a test of Musk’s political sway, as his super PAC, America PAC, alone spent more than $12 million to support Schimel. He also traveled to Wisconsin the Sunday before the election, where he handed out $1 million checks to voters who had signed his petition against “activist judges.”
Musk’s involvement sparked controversy, with Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul unsuccessfully suing to block his actions as potential vote-buying.
Musk’s unpopularity may have played a role in the election, though it’s not the sole factor in Crawford’s victory. Economic uncertainty, a declining stock market and sweeping cuts to government programs with little congressional oversight seems to have motivated Democrats and independents.
Trump also waded into the race, repeatedly urging voters to go to the polls and support Schimel.
The race will also be a bitter disappointment for Wisconsin Republicans, who lost a chance to keep their conservative majority after Justice Janet Protasiewicz defeated conservative candidate Dan Kelly in 2023.
This year’s race, which shattered the 2023 race’s fundraising records by tens of millions of dollars, received outsized national attention not just because it determined the partisan tilt of the court, but also because it comes less than three months into Trump’s second term as president, making it the first critical referendum on the president.
Turnout was significant in key battleground counties, with Schimel performing worse than Trump in urban, suburban and rural areas.
According to projections from Decision Desk HQ, Crawford is expected to receive 54.5% of the vote, while Schimel is projected at 45.6%, giving Crawford a decisive 8.9-point margin of victory.
For context, Trump won Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election by approximately 0.9%.
With national implications in a perennial swing state that will help decide control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections, all eyes will remain on the Badger State as next year’s election cycle gets underway.
