A year ago, the path appeared clear for Vice President JD Vance to emerge as the heir apparent to President Donald Trump and the MAGA movement heading into the 2028 election.
Vance, who was just 40 years old at the time of the 2024 election, entered office with a wave of support from Republicans and the strong backing of Trump’s family. Early in the administration, many within the party saw him as the natural successor to Trump.
While the vice president remains well positioned for a likely 2028 run, quiet questions are beginning to emerge about whether his path to the nomination is as inevitable as it once seemed. Much of that speculation centers on the rising profile of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose influence within the administration has grown significantly during the first year of Trump’s second term — particularly following the U.S. strikes on Iran.
The long-term political consequences of the conflict remain unclear. But Rubio’s growing visibility has caught the attention of many of Trump’s closest allies — including the president himself. According to multiple sources who spoke with ABC News, Trump has privately remarked on how “popular” and “loved” Rubio has become within the administration.
People close to the president say Trump has repeatedly praised Rubio both publicly and privately. At times, the president has even started standing ovations for him during events and declared that Rubio will go down as “the greatest secretary of state in history.”
Despite the growing speculation, Trump has so far declined to formally endorse either Vance or Rubio as his preferred successor. Instead, he has occasionally floated the idea of the two running together on a joint ticket — without specifying which would lead it.
Behind closed doors, however, Trump has continued to raise the question with allies and donors. According to sources, the president has asked people directly: “Marco or JD?” — including during a discussion with donors at his Mar-a-Lago resort in late February, as first reported by Axios.
‘Draft Rubio’ movement begins to form
As Rubio’s prominence grows, some Republican donors have quietly begun discussing ways to strengthen his political future ahead of the 2028 election.
Multiple sources told ABC News that a group of donors and party figures has started exploring the possibility of organizing a “draft Rubio” effort after the 2026 midterm elections. Those discussions are being driven by supporters and political allies rather than Rubio himself, reflecting what some in Trump-aligned circles see as increasing enthusiasm for the secretary of state within the party.
Still, Republican operatives note that donor enthusiasm does not necessarily determine the eventual nominee.
“Donors don’t pick the nominee — the base picks,” one senior Republican operative told ABC News. “Donors tried to abandon President Trump and tried to pick [Florida Gov. Ron] DeSantis, and we all saw how that went.”
When asked about donor interest in Rubio’s future, White House communications director Steven Cheung downplayed the speculation.
“The President has assembled an all-star team that has achieved unprecedented success in just over one year,” Cheung said in a statement to ABC News. “No amount of crazed media speculation about Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio will deter this Administration’s mission of fighting for the American people.”
The vice president’s office declined to comment.
Rubio’s Expanding Role in the Administration
Over the course of the administration’s first year, Rubio has steadily taken on a larger role in Trump’s government.
In addition to serving as secretary of state, Rubio has at times taken on other major responsibilities, including acting national security adviser and acting director of the U.S. Agency for International Development. His growing list of assignments has even become something of a running joke around Washington, with some observers wondering what position Rubio might take on next.
His profile rose even further following the administration’s recent military strikes on Iran.
Rubio emerged as one of the leading public voices explaining the operation alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. When Trump authorized the sweeping strikes — known as Operation Epic Fury — Rubio was already traveling to Mar-a-Lago, where he joined the president in a makeshift situation room to monitor the opening hours of the operation.
Meanwhile, Vance remained in Washington during the strikes.
The vice president monitored the operation from the White House Situation Room alongside Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. They were connected by conference line to Trump and the rest of the national security team at Mar-a-Lago.
A spokesperson for Vance told ABC News that the vice president stayed in Washington “to maintain operational secrecy and in keeping with the administration’s security protocol to limit the President and Vice President co-locating away from the White House.”
During the early days of the conflict, Rubio remained by Trump’s side at Mar-a-Lago, further fueling speculation about his rising influence inside the administration.
At the same time, that higher profile could carry political risks. If Rubio ultimately pursues the presidency, his role in the Iran operation could become a central issue. Early polling suggests the military strikes are unpopular with many Americans. According to an Ipsos poll, just 29% approve of the strikes, while 43% disapprove and 26% remain unsure.
Vance Keeps a Lower Public Profile
In contrast, Vance — a Marine Corps veteran who served in Iraq — maintained a relatively low public profile in the early days of the conflict.
More recently, however, the vice president has begun ramping up both his political and official appearances. On Friday he spoke in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, where he briefly addressed the Iran conflict in remarks to supporters.
Vance has also been noticeably less active on social media platforms like X than in the past.
A senior White House official told ABC News that the administration intentionally limited public messaging during the early stages of the operation.
“The national security team was deliberate on letting the President’s statements and addresses to the nation stand as the operation unfolded,” the official said.
Vance was also scheduled to participate in a town hall with CBS News that was expected to air Saturday, but the broadcast was postponed following the Iran strikes.
Despite the quieter public posture, the vice president remains deeply engaged politically. As finance chair of the Republican National Committee, Vance continues to maintain a busy fundraising schedule, with events planned in Dallas and Austin later this month, according to fundraiser invitations obtained by ABC News.
During a press conference Monday, Trump acknowledged that he and Vance had differed somewhat on the Iran decision.
“I don’t think so. No, no, we get along very well on this,” Trump said. “He was, I would say philosophically a little bit different than me. I think he was maybe less enthusiastic about going, but he was quite enthusiastic. But I felt it was something we had to do. I didn’t feel we had a choice. If we didn’t do it, they would have done it to us.”
Betting Markets Reflect Uncertainty
Prediction markets and betting sites are also reflecting the emerging uncertainty surrounding the 2028 race.
On Kalshi, Rubio recently moved ahead of both Vance and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) to become the market’s top choice to succeed Trump. Kalshi traders currently give Rubio a 19% chance of winning the 2028 election, with both Vance and Newsom at 18%.
On Polymarket, however, Vance remains the favorite with a 21% chance, followed by Newsom at 18% and Rubio at 16%.
Traditional betting markets still place Vance slightly ahead as well. DraftKings lists Vance at +376 to win the presidency, meaning a $100 bet would yield $376 if he wins. Newsom stands at +426, while Rubio is listed at +488.
On BetMGM, Vance is seen as roughly twice as likely to win, with odds of +350 compared to Rubio’s +700.
For now, the 2028 race remains wide open — but Rubio’s growing prominence inside the Trump administration has begun to complicate what once looked like a straightforward path for Vice President JD Vance.
