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Biden vs. Trump: Latest Poll Reveals Surprising Lead Ahead Of Republican Convention

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Photo via Gage Skidmore Flickr

A+ Rated Poll Shows Biden Edging Out Trump – What Does This Mean for 2024?

Just days before the Republican National Convention kicks off, a newly released NPR/PBS News/Marist poll reveals that President Joe Biden is leading former President Donald Trump in a tight race among registered voters. The poll, conducted from July 9 to July 10, shows Biden ahead with 50% of the vote compared to Trump’s 48%, leaving 2% of voters undecided. This marks a slight shift from last month’s pre-debate poll, where both candidates were tied at 49%.

Key Findings:

  • Voter Concerns: By a margin of more than two to one, voters are more concerned with candidates who lie than with those who are too old to serve.
  • Mental Fitness: Despite Biden’s lead, nearly two-thirds of Americans question his mental fitness for the presidency. Respondents were evenly split regarding Trump’s mental acuity, suggesting concerns about both candidates.
  • Character Assessment: The poll highlights a stark contrast in public perception of character. A majority believe Biden is a man of integrity, while Trump is perceived as lacking the character required for the presidency.

Why Marist Polls Matter

Marist, known for its accuracy and methodological rigor, continues to be a trusted source in political polling. Their partnership with major media outlets and commitment to transparency and innovation ensure that their findings are both reliable and insightful.

NPR has additional information on the findings:

Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.

The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.

The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.

“This is an unpleasant rematch with two unpopular people,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, “but Biden gets points for honesty and character. As a result, there’s a lot of canceling out.”

Final Thoughts

Ultimately, poll numbers provide a snapshot of the current political climate. The only numbers that really matter will come in November.

That being said, who do you think will come out on top in the 2024 election? And does the latest poll change your opinion on the trajectory of the race for the White House?

READ NEXT: NY Times ‘Icon’ Reveals Shocking Truth Behind Trump Panic

Leading Dem Frontrunner Reveals The One Republican ‘Scarier’ Than Trump

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Casa Rosada (Argentina Presidency of the Nation), CC BY 2.5 AR via Wikimedia Commons

In a recent interview with MSNBC’s Inside with Jen Psaki, Newsom described Vance as “dangerous,” arguing that the former Ohio senator poses a more calculated political threat than the president himself.

“Vance, for whatever reason, scares me, almost more than Trump,” the Democratic governor said. “Talk about a guy who put a mask on and his face grew into it.”

Newsom accused both Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio of abandoning earlier criticisms of Trump after joining his administration. But he singled out the vice president as uniquely concerning.

“JD is a unique fraud and phony, and he’s a little more dangerous,” Newsom said.

A Warning Shot Toward 2028

The remarks amount to more than a passing critique. They reflect the early contours of what could become a defining political rivalry ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

Newsom is widely viewed as a leading Democratic contender should he enter the race. The two-term California governor has built a national profile as one of the party’s most visible counterweights to Trump-era Republicanism, frequently clashing with GOP governors and positioning California as a policy and cultural foil to red-state leadership.

At the same time, Vance has emerged as a potential heir to Trump’s political movement. As vice president, he has solidified his standing with the Republican base while cultivating relationships with conservative intellectuals and populist activists. Many analysts see him as a plausible frontrunner in a post-Trump GOP primary, particularly if he successfully fuses Trump-style populism with a more disciplined, ideologically coherent message.

Newsom’s comments suggest Democrats are already thinking beyond Trump himself and preparing for what they view as a more strategic successor.

Concerns About a Third Term and Election Security

During the interview, recorded a day after Trump’s State of the Union address, Newsom also expressed alarm over Trump’s public musings about seeking a third term — an idea that would face significant constitutional barriers.

The governor issued what he called a “code red” about the state of American democracy and election security, warning Democrats not to lose focus amid the daily churn of political controversy.

“My fear is we get so easily distracted and they’re so effective on the other side,” Newsom said. “We must continue to be mindful, laser-focused on what’s in front of us every single day until the job is done.”

His framing underscores a broader Democratic argument that the stakes of the next election cycle extend beyond standard partisan disagreements.

Newsom’s Evolving Political Strategy

Newsom’s sharpened rhetoric toward Vance also comes at a moment when the California governor has been experimenting with his own messaging style — at times attempting to adopt elements of Trump’s direct, combative approach.

In recent months, Newsom has leaned more heavily into punchy social media posts, culture-war skirmishes, and headline-grabbing soundbites aimed at energizing Democratic voters. He has sparred publicly with Republican governors, amplified confrontations over education and immigration policy, and positioned himself as a national foil to conservative leadership.

Some of those efforts, however, have drawn criticism from both Republicans and members of his own party. Detractors argue that mimicking Trump’s confrontational style risks undercutting Newsom’s attempts to present himself as a stabilizing alternative. In several instances, attempts at sharp-edged messaging have backfired, generating backlash for the California Governor.

A Glimpse of the Next Political Chapter

By identifying Vance — rather than Trump — as the Republican who most concerns him, Newsom may be signaling where he believes the long-term battle lies.

Trump remains the dominant force in Republican politics, but Vance represents a new generation of conservative leadership that blends populist rhetoric with ideological ambition. For Democrats preparing for 2028, the prospect of facing a candidate who inherits Trump’s base while refining its message could be a formidable test.

For now, both men are focused on their current roles — Newsom governing the nation’s largest state and Vance serving as vice president. But as early positioning for the next presidential cycle accelerates, Newsom’s warning suggests he sees the Republican field not as a one-man show, but as a movement with staying power.

And in that movement, he appears to believe JD Vance may be the most consequential figure of all.

Supreme Court Rejects Challenge To Special Counsel’s Access To Trump Twitter Data

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Duncan Lock, Dflock, CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons

On Monday, the Supreme Court declined to take up a challenge by social platform X, formerly known as Twitter, to court rulings that forced the platform to turn over data on former President Trump’s account to special counsel Jack Smith. 

Early last year, Smith obtained a secret warrant for Trump’s account on X, where Trump posted constantly during his White House term, as part of prosecutors’ federal election interference investigation.

X was prohibited from informing the former president about the warrant. It only became public last summer, after Trump was charged with four felonies in the case. He pleaded not guilty. 

The company challenged the order, arguing the records were potentially covered by executive privilege and not being able to tell Trump violated the First Amendment. Court filings show X at one point was fined $350,000 for not timely turning over Trump’s data.

X brought its fight to the Supreme Court, hoping to prevent the process from happening again, insisting most similar challenges never reach the high court and the case was a “rare opportunity” to review the issue. 

“If the Court does not grant this petition, it could be decades (if ever) before it gets another clean vehicle to resolve the important and recurring questions presented,” X wrote in its petition. 

The Supreme Court declined to take up X’s appeal in a brief, unsigned order.

“If review of the underlying legal issues were ever warranted, the Court should await a live case in which the issues are concretely presented,” prosecutors wrote in court filings. 

House Holds Highly Anticipated Vote for Speaker’s Gavel

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On Monday, the U.S. House of Representatives held its vote to determine the next Speaker- the prestigious and coveted position which is third in the line of presidential succession.

Kevin McCarthy, R- Calif., Andy Biggs D- Ariz., and Hakeen Jeffries D- N.Y. were nominated for the position but ultimately the vote ended in a stalemate as the California Republican failed to reach the 218 vote threshold. No nominee reached the required number of votes meaning House lawmakers now will engage in round after round of voting until a Speaker is elected.

According to The Hill, in the event of multiple ballots, the House will not necessarily continue late into the night. The last time there were multiple ballots, the House adjourned until the following day after four failed ballots. Adjourning also allows members time to negotiate and strike deals.

Dire circumstances could lead to unusual procedures. Twice before, in 1849 and 1856, the House agreed to a resolution that allowed a Speaker to be elected by a plurality. That move was something of a last resort, though, and came after 59 and 129 failed ballots. A majority of the whole House would need to agree to that resolution.

McCarthy’s failure to secure the Speaker’s gavel during Tuesday’s vote marks the first time in a century the U.S. House of Representatives has gone to multiple votes for the office.

Hours before the 118th Congress began its leadership deliberations the influential conservative organization Club for Growth urged lawmakers to oppose McCarthy for Speaker unless he makes a number of concessions.

“I just voted for Jim Jordan to be Speaker of the House.” Colorado Congresswoman Lauren Boebert (R) tweeted during the vote.

The highly anticipated result came after a contentious campaign battle for the position as disappointing midterm results spurred animosity amongst Republican lawmakers. McCarthy was initially named the sole Republican contender for the position but some blamed the California Republican for the lackluster midterm results leading them to declare their early opposition to his bid for Speaker.

On Sunday, according to The Hill, Rep. McCarthy offered a number of concessions including allowing a move to “vacate the chair” that would force a vote on ousting the Speaker with the approval of five Republican members, rather than a threshold of at least half of the House GOP Conference that Republicans adopted in an internal rule in November. 

The chamber is also scheduled to create a House Judiciary Select Subcommittee on the “Weaponization of the Federal Government,” a recognition of a request to increase scrutiny on the Biden administration and intelligence agencies.

In a letter to GOP colleagues, McCarthy — speaking as “Speaker-Designate” — also addressed a request from conservatives to have more representation on committees.

“I will use my selections on key panels to ensure they more closely reflect the ideological makeup of our conference, and will advocate for the same when it comes to the membership of standing committees. This will facilitate greater scrutiny of bills from the start so they stand a greater chance of passing in the end,” the letter from McCarthy said.

However, despite McCarthy’s best attempts to re-attract hardline Republican lawmakers back to his side, some conservatives said after a Sunday conference call that McCarthy is still coming up short.

According to The Washington Examiner:

During the course of the call, multiple members “said they won’t vote for it [the rules package] if Kevin is not Speaker,” one lawmaker told The Examiner. Another member said moderates expressed grievances with the changes to the motion to vacate despite pro-McCarthy lawmakers attempting to sell the package to defectors in hopes it would shift critics’ support toward the California Republican.

“They started [the call] with this new rules package that we’re all about to see and are obviously saying the rules package – it’s great, everyone worked so hard, we got all these great things and they’re gonna be historic. And then [Gaetz] got on there and said, ‘Well, if everyone wants the rules package, we should accept it no matter who the speaker is because if these are good rules are good rules, right?’” the lawmaker said. “But then the mods piled on and said actually, we hate the rules package.”

Following the call, a group of conservatives released a letter saying the California Republican’s changes had come up short of what was needed to secure support.

“Regrettably, however, despite some progress achieved, Mr. McCarthy’s statement comes almost impossibly late to address continued deficiencies ahead of the opening of the 118th Congress on January 3rd. At this stage, it cannot be a surprise that expressions of vague hopes reflected in far too many of the crucial points still under debate are insufficient,” they wrote.

“This is especially true with respect to Mr. McCarthy’s candidacy for Speaker because the times call for radical departure from the status quo — not a continuation of past, and ongoing, Republican failures. For someone with a 14-year presence in senior House Republican leadership, Mr. McCarthy bears squarely the burden to correct the dysfunction he now explicitly admits across that long tenure.”

House Freedom Caucus chairman Scott Perry told The Hill on Sunday, “I think what he’s trying to do is the bare minimum that he needs to try and get to where he can get the votes. And that’s not indicative of somebody that really wants to embrace new ideas, reject the status quo and unify all members in the conference.”

Trump Tied with DeSantis in New Poll of GOP Voters

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The latest Monmouth University poll shows that former President Donald Trump is tied with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as the leading choice for the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential nominee.

According to The Hill, the Monmouth University poll found a third of Republican voters saw Trump, who kicked off his campaign in November, as their top presidential pick, and another third favored DeSantis, who has yet to formally announce he’s running.

Former president Mike Pence scored just 2 percent support and Nikki Haley — who is set to become the only other big-name Republican officially in the ring with Trump — earned just 1 percent.

Trump closed the gap with DeSantis from a similar poll back in December that put the Florida governor ahead by 13 points, with 39 percent support compared to 26 percent for the former president. Trump has since climbed 7 points, and DeSantis has fallen 6 points.

But despite the uptick in voters backing Trump for the GOP nomination, DeSantis takes the win in a hypothetical primary matchup between the two, earning 53 percent to Trump’s 40 percent.

“Both Trump and DeSantis are well-liked by the party’s rank and file, but it’s likely that voter opinion of Trump is more firmly set than it is for DeSantis right now. The unknown factor is whether DeSantis can maintain this early edge if and when he gets on the campaign trail,” Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said in a report.

The Florida governor is said to be close to his final decision on whether he’ll run in 2024 and is widely expected to jump in the ring.

Democrat Senator Warns Trump Planning a ‘Coordinated Effort to Try to Interfere’ in the Midterms

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Missvain, CC BY 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons

Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, is raising concerns about what he claims could be an effort by President Donald Trump and his allies to influence the 2026 midterm elections.

Speaking with reporters on Capitol Hill Thursday, Warner suggested that Trump’s recent comments about Republicans needing to “take over” elections from the states could signal broader plans to challenge state-run election systems.

“It appears there may be a coordinated effort to try to interfere in the ‘26 midterms,” Warner said. He added that he is concerned, “They may even start to interfere in the primaries.”

Watch:

Trump and many Republicans have argued for years that election administration should be strengthened through tighter oversight and more uniform standards, particularly after disputes over voting procedures in 2020. Democrats, however, have increasingly framed these efforts as threats to democracy.

Warner Criticizes Tulsi Gabbard’s Role in Georgia Investigation

Warner also expressed anger over Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s reported involvement in a federal raid in Fulton County, Georgia, where officials seized ballots and voter information as part of an investigation.

While details surrounding the raid remain unclear, Warner compared the situation to Watergate-era abuses of power — an analogy Democrats have frequently used in recent years when criticizing Trump.

In a clip posted to social media, Warner said:

“The Nixon era is back. What do I mean? Richard Nixon is most infamously known for Watergate, where he intervened in a domestic political effort under the guise of the Watergate break-in. He knew what was going on before the fact. Well, it appears the same is true.”

Warner claimed testimony suggested Gabbard traveled to Atlanta because Trump personally asked her to.

“It appears the same is true. We got testimony yesterday that Tulsi Gabbard was down in Atlanta for that crazy raid on the voting machines because Trump asked her to go.”

Warner then questioned how Trump would have known about the investigation ahead of time:

“Well, how the hell did Trump know there was about to be a warrant issued in a lame criminal investigation before the act took place? How did he let Gabbard know to go there?”

He also criticized reports that Trump spoke directly with FBI agents involved in the case:

“This is not how American justice should work. When, when, when will any of my Republican colleagues find a spine?”

Democrats Claim Raid May Have Been Improper

In another clip posted Wednesday, Warner suggested the FBI raid itself may have been unlawful, pointing to leadership changes under FBI Director Kash Patel.

“We have seen Kash Patel basically decimate the leadership of the FBI to the point that that raid… the FBI agent in charge of that office got fired because I don’t believe he felt this was legal.”

Warner also argued that Gabbard, as DNI, should not have been involved in what he called a “domestic criminal investigation.”

“The director of national intelligence, who showed up at that domestic criminal investigation where she had no right to be there…”

He continued by questioning whether anyone in the administration attempted to stop Trump from contacting agents directly:

“I know Trump doesn’t know the law, but wasn’t there anybody in the White House Counsel that said, ‘Mr. President, you shouldn’t be talking to FBI agents…’”

Warner concluded with a sharp personal attack on Gabbard:

“This is a guy that’s being enhanced by a rogue DNI who’s way over her skis in terms of knowledge or competency.”

Political Stakes Rising as 2026 Approaches

Warner’s comments come as Democrats increasingly warn of authoritarianism and election manipulation, themes expected to dominate campaign messaging heading into 2026.

Republicans, meanwhile, have argued that ensuring election integrity — including investigating irregularities and enforcing stricter standards — is a legitimate government responsibility, not “interference.”

Prominent Foreign Politician Meets With Trump

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Marine One lifts-off after returning President Donald J. Trump to Mar-a-Lago Friday, March 29, 2019, following his visit to the 143-mile Herbert Hoover Dike near Canal Point, Fla., that surrounds Lake Okeechobee. The visit was part of an infrastructure inspection of the dike, which is part of the Kissimmee-Okeechobee Everglades system, and reduces impacts of flooding for areas of south Florida. (Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian) [Photo Credit: The White House from Washington, DC, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]

On Monday, Former U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron met with former President Donald Trump in a surprise visit to Mar-a-Lago.

Cameron serves as the U.K. foreign secretary and is in the U.S. to urge lawmakers to back additional funding to Ukraine in its war against Russia.

A spokesperson for the British government’s Foreign Office described the Mar-A-Lago meeting as “standard practice” to meet with an opposition candidate, with Trump being the presumptive Republican nominee for this year’s presidential election.

It is unclear how the meeting went or what exactly was discussed. Trump has previously stated that he would end the war within 24 hours should he be reelected while he has also touted converting the cost of weapons transfers to Ukraine into a loan.

Fox News has more:

Cameron will meet Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday to discuss the $60 billion military aid package which he has held up for months, while the pair will also discuss the Israel-Gaza war.

Last week, Cameron called on Western leaders to put pressure on House Speaker Mike Johnson and Republicans in Congress to approve the additional aid for Ukraine, as Britain and the European Union have already done.

“Speaker Johnson can make it happen in Congress,” Cameron said in a video posted on social media platform X. “I’m going to go and see him next week and say, ‘Ukraine needs that money. It is American security, it’s European security, it’s Britain’s security that’s on the line in Ukraine, and they need our help.’”

Republican Campaign Chair Warns Lawmakers Against In-Person Townhalls

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Republicans are on high alert…

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson warned congressional lawmakers to avoid in-person town halls and predicted that protests are only going to get worse.

The remarks came after President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to accuse “paid troublemakers” and Democrats of manufacturing the scenes of discontent at GOP events across the country. In a post on Truth Social,

Paid ‘troublemakers’ are attending Republican Town Hall Meetings. It is all part of the game for the Democrats, but just like our big LANDSLIDE ELECTION, it’s not going to work for them!

According to Wall Street Journal Congress reporter Olivia Beavers, Hudson called for the full attention of all present at the closed GOP House meeting on Tuesday before warning that protests would be getting worse and that no one should be doing in-person town halls for the time being.

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) reportedly stood up and shared that protestors had been picketing outside of her house and were harassing her children.

Hudson went on to claim that Democratic activists were “hijacking” the town hall events and “drowning out” local constituents, another source told Punchbowl News’ Jake Sherman. He added that Democrats would be attending the events just to get a “viral clip” of Republican lawmakers being challenged.

Hudson reportedly recommended that Republicans do virtual town halls or tele-town halls instead, rationalizing that this was a more efficient way of reaching constituents.

Centrist Republicans Float Re-electing McCarthy as House Speaker In Wake of Israel Attacks

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Photo via Gage Skidmore Flickr

The old saying goes “the more things change the more they stay the same…”

Some Republicans are mulling a move to reinstate Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) as House Speaker in the wake of the deadly attacks in Israel.

On Saturday morning, Palestine militant group Hamas launched its surprise attack on Israel, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare war on the organization and order retaliatory action.

“Israel attacks have moderates holding out for the one person who can truly unite us: Kevin McCarthy,” a House GOP lawmaker said.

Last week, McCarthy was ousted by the votes of eight Republicans and all House Democrats thanks to a rule change McCarthy agreed to when he was elected speaker.

However, handing McCarthy back the Speaker’s gavel is an uphill battle due to the support Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) have already garnered. Last week, former President Donald Trump threw his support behind Jordan for Speaker.

McCarthy, for his part, is “aware and grateful” for the efforts to reinstate him, but he’s not engaging at this point, the House GOP lawmaker said.

However, some Republicans are optimistic that it could be done, given the severity of the attack in Israel. They believe the urgency surrounding the attacks could pressure the eight House Republicans who voted to oust McCarthy to switch their stance. Many Republicans are still upset with those who voted against McCarthy, who is a vocal supporter of Israel, and are “using this moment to show how wrong they were,” per the House GOP lawmaker.

“A short window is all we need in the House to reinstate Kevin McCarthy and change the rule,” Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) said.

House Republicans plan on meeting behind closed doors on Monday to hash out details and differences of opinion. On Tuesday, there will be a candidate forum to hear the pros and cons of each speaker candidate.

The conference plans to hold a secret vote on Wednesday to see who it wants to nominate for speaker on the floor. The nomination will go to whichever candidate secures a majority of the GOP conference. That figure could be as low as 113, including the three nonvoting GOP delegates to the House. If all 435 House members participate, a successful candidate will need 217 votes to become speaker.

Kentucky Senate Democrat Switches Parties To GOP

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Another Democrat is calling it quits…

A Kentucky state Senator Robin Webb, who represents Kentucky’s rural 18th Senate district, revealed she is switching her party affiliation to Republican.

“First and foremost, I’m a mother, a rancher and a lawyer with deep personal and professional roots in Kentucky’s coal country,” Webb said while explaining the switch. “As the Democratic Party continues its lurch to the left and its hyperfocus on policies that hurt workforce and economic development in my region, I no longer feel it represents my values.”

“It has become untenable and counterproductive to the best interests of my constituents for me to remain a Democrat.”

“While it’s cliché, it’s true: I didn’t leave the party — the party left me,” Webb said.

This comes as a major blow to Kentucky Democrats, who have historically held a stronghold in rural regions of the state largely due to union workers and the coal industry. 

“Like countless other Kentuckians, [Webb] has recognized that the policies and objectives of today’s Democratic Party are simply not what they once were, and do not align with the vast majority of Kentuckians,” Republican Party of Kentucky Chairman Robert Benvenuti added.

“I always respected that [Webb] approached issues in a very thoughtful and commonsense manner, and that she never failed to keenly focus on what was best for her constituents,” Benvenuti added. “It is my pleasure to welcome Sen. Robin Webb to the Republican Party.”

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear told a local Louisville news outlet that he “would consider” a run as the Democrat nominee for president in 2028.

Beshear is among a handful of Democratic governors who have been floated as 2028 White House potentials, which also include Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Gavin Newsom of California, JB Pritzker of Illinois, and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.