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Poll Shows New Trump Advantage In New Hampshire

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Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

More good news for Trump…

A new poll conducted by St. Anselm College in New Hampshire indicates Biden’s poor debate performance is resonating with voters.

According to the poll, Trump now holds a two-point lead (44%-42%) over Biden. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is mounting an independent bid for the presidency after initially running in the Democratic primary, earned the support of just 4% of voters.

Neil Levesque, the director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm, declared that the poll shows “that New Hampshire is really a competitive state in the presidential election.”

“Events like a presidential debate like we saw last week are pivot points in politics, and at this point, with the amount of change we’ve seen with the presidential contest, certainly the debate had an effect,” he added.

Among voters who were aware of the debate, 54% said Trump won, while just 6% said Biden won and 39% said there was no winner. The poll showed that 81% of those who watched the debate said it won’t affect their vote in November, so the trend might have started before the end of last week.

“I think people are very partisan,” Levesque said. “So, they’re in their camps and they say, ‘Well, I watched the debate, but it doesn’t affect how I’m going to vote.’ But certainly, events like a presidential debate like we saw last week are pivot points in politics, and at this point, with the amount of change we’ve seen with the presidential contest, certainly the debate had an effect.”

New York Times Pollster Warns That Shy Trump Voters Could Be Skewing Surveys — Again

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Famartin, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

The silent red tsunami could be on the horizon…

According to The New York Times’ chief political analyst and pollster Nate Cohn silent Trump supporters could skew poll results once again, leaving prognosticators scratching their skulls in the finals hours before Election Day.

The Times reported in Arizona, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by four points, and in Michigan, he has a one-point advantage. Harris, on the other hand, is beating Trump by one in Georgia, and three in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

On Sunday, the Times and Siena College released their final poll from the seven battleground states, and the results were inconclusive.

In his write-up of the results, Cohn submitted that they don’t “point toward a relatively clear favorite” for a few reasons, even if Harris was perhaps slightly more pleased by its finding.

“On average, Ms. Harris fared modestly better than our last round of surveys of the same states, but her gains were concentrated in states where she was previously struggling,” he wrote. “Meanwhile, the so-called Blue Wall (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) does not look quite as formidable of an obstacle to Mr. Trump as it once did. As a result, Ms Harris’s position in the Electoral College isn’t necessarily improved.”

Cohn also warned that nonresponse bias from Republicans may be continuing to skew the results, just as they did in 2016 and 2020:

It’s hard to measure nonresponse bias — after all, we couldn’t reach these demographically similar voters — but one measure I track from time to time is the proportion of Democrats or Republicans who respond to a survey, after considering other factors.

Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over.

“It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again,” he concluded.

NYC Mayor ‘Welcomes’ Possible Trump Support After Corruption Indictment

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New York City Mayor Eric Adams is looking for support anywhere he can get it.

Adams said he would “welcome support from every American” in response to a question from the Washington Examiner about whether he would accept former President Donald Trump’s favor.

Trump recently said he had predicted Adams would be “indicted within a year” as the mayor called for federal government funds to deal with the city’s migrant crisis.

“Listen, I welcome support from every American,” Adams said Tuesday at a press conference. “No matter where they are and who they are, I welcome support from every American. Those who know me and know how I am, and those who are just reading up on this. So every American in this great country, I welcome support from.”

Trump’s comments last week suggested that he sympathized with the mayor.

“I watched about a year ago when he talked about how the illegal migrants are hurting our city, and the federal government should pay us, and we shouldn’t have to take them,” the former president said. “And I said, ‘You know what? He’ll be indicted within a year,’ and I was exactly right.”

Watch:

An Adams spokesman believes press coverage of Adams’s remarks has been misguided.

“This is a distortion of what the mayor said today,” Fabien Levy, Adams’s deputy mayor for communications, said in a social media post. “He never said he was looking for Trump’s support. Mayor Adams has said multiple times that he supports Kamala Harris for president. In fact, the mayor traveled to Chicago to support her historic nomination in August.”

Adams was recently indicted on five corruption charges, including bribery and wire fraud, for his actions allegedly soliciting benefits from foreign nationals, namely Turkish government officials, in exchange for favors.

New York City Mayor Eric Adams could be facing a bevy of new charges after being indicted last week in a federal corruption case. On Wednesday, prosecutors said that further counts are “quite likely” and that more defendants may be implicated.

Georgia Governor To Meet With Senate Leaders Amid 2024 Talks

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Georgia National Guard from United States, CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons

A prominent Republican governor is preparing to meet with top Senate leaders this week.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp is meeting with two top Republican leaders in the Senate in Washington, D.C. over the next two days, a spokesperson for the governor confirmed to The Hill

Kemp will meet with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Tuesday and National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) on Wednesday. 

The pair of meetings come after the Peach State governor told CNN’s Kaitlin Collins that he is “certainly” not running for president in 2024.

“In politics, there’s always doors opening and closing. I got a great job right now. I personally feel like having more people in the race does not help us win and beat Joe Biden,” Kemp told Kaitlan Collins on “The Source.” “So, you know, I’m certainly not running for president. But there’s always doors opening in politics depending on how things play out, and we’ll see what happens.”

The Georgia Governor reiterated that Trump should stop constantly referencing the 2020 election if he hopes to re-win the state.

“If he continues to do that, he’s going to lose Georgia in November,” Kemp said, later adding, “There is no path for us to win the White House if we can’t win Georgia.”

Popular Lawmaker Firmly Rejects Harris VP Nomination Speculation

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Gage Skidmore Flickr

He’s not interested…

Over the weekend, Independent Sen. Joe Manchin (W.V.) shot down rumors he may join Kamala Harris on the campaign trail as her running mate.

When asked on “CNN This Morning” if he would consider running as VP with Harris — whom Biden endorsed to replace him on the ticket — Manchin said, “No, I’m not.”

“It’s a new generation, you don’t want a 76-year-old vice president right now,” he continued.

CNN anchor Kasie Hunt then asked if the nation wants a 76-year-old president, following reports that Manchin is considering reregistering as a Democrat to run against Harris for the nomination.

“Well, if he feels like he’s 50 maybe,” Manchin quipped.

“I haven’t worked with Kamala at all,” he later added.

Manchin, a longtime Democrat, switched to an independent in May and floated a primary bid against Biden, but he ultimately decided against it.

“It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President. And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term,” Biden wrote in a letter posted to social media.

The president said he will address the nation later this week to discuss his decision to ultimately drop out.

Hours before Biden’s announcement, Manchin became the fifth senator to call on Biden to leave the presidential race.

“I came to the decision with a heavy heart that I think it’s time to pass the torch to a new generation,” Manchin told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.”

“I want him [Biden] to be the president in the last five months … of his term, to do what he can do is unite our country, to calm down the rhetoric and be able to focus attention to peace in the world,” the senator added.

Trump VP Contender Calls Trump ‘The George Washington Of Our Moment’

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Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

Do you agree?

Tech entrepreneur and former Republican presidential challenger Vivek Ramaswamy called former President Donald Trump “the George Washington of our moment” and labeled the 2024 election a “1776 moment” in history

Ramaswamy, who made an unexpected appearance at the Tuesday rally in Wisconsin, urged Trump supporters to view the former president as a modern-day Founding Father.

“Dig deep and ask yourself why it is that our founding fathers made the sacrifices they did 250 years ago,” he told the crowd.

He continued: “Fifty-six men signed the Declaration of Independence in 1776. We don’t often ask what became of them. I’m going to tell you what happened to them. Twelve of them had their homes ransacked by the British and burned down to the ground. Five of them were captured by the British and tortured until their deaths. Nine of them died in the Revolutionary War. Three more of them had their own kids die in the Revolutionary War. Many of them died bankrupt because they had their own private property seized before their deaths.

Ramaswamy concluded: “They made those sacrifices in 1776, and I believe today it’s a 1776 moment in 2024, and Donald Trump is the George Washington of our moment. That is what I believe.”

In the rest of his speech the Republican predicted a shake-up in the Democratic lineup: “I’m not going to sit here railing against Joe Biden because chances are, let’s be honest, he might not be the nominee that we’re running against.”

House Holds Highly Anticipated Vote for Speaker’s Gavel

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On Monday, the U.S. House of Representatives held its vote to determine the next Speaker- the prestigious and coveted position which is third in the line of presidential succession.

Kevin McCarthy, R- Calif., Andy Biggs D- Ariz., and Hakeen Jeffries D- N.Y. were nominated for the position but ultimately the vote ended in a stalemate as the California Republican failed to reach the 218 vote threshold. No nominee reached the required number of votes meaning House lawmakers now will engage in round after round of voting until a Speaker is elected.

According to The Hill, in the event of multiple ballots, the House will not necessarily continue late into the night. The last time there were multiple ballots, the House adjourned until the following day after four failed ballots. Adjourning also allows members time to negotiate and strike deals.

Dire circumstances could lead to unusual procedures. Twice before, in 1849 and 1856, the House agreed to a resolution that allowed a Speaker to be elected by a plurality. That move was something of a last resort, though, and came after 59 and 129 failed ballots. A majority of the whole House would need to agree to that resolution.

McCarthy’s failure to secure the Speaker’s gavel during Tuesday’s vote marks the first time in a century the U.S. House of Representatives has gone to multiple votes for the office.

Hours before the 118th Congress began its leadership deliberations the influential conservative organization Club for Growth urged lawmakers to oppose McCarthy for Speaker unless he makes a number of concessions.

“I just voted for Jim Jordan to be Speaker of the House.” Colorado Congresswoman Lauren Boebert (R) tweeted during the vote.

The highly anticipated result came after a contentious campaign battle for the position as disappointing midterm results spurred animosity amongst Republican lawmakers. McCarthy was initially named the sole Republican contender for the position but some blamed the California Republican for the lackluster midterm results leading them to declare their early opposition to his bid for Speaker.

On Sunday, according to The Hill, Rep. McCarthy offered a number of concessions including allowing a move to “vacate the chair” that would force a vote on ousting the Speaker with the approval of five Republican members, rather than a threshold of at least half of the House GOP Conference that Republicans adopted in an internal rule in November. 

The chamber is also scheduled to create a House Judiciary Select Subcommittee on the “Weaponization of the Federal Government,” a recognition of a request to increase scrutiny on the Biden administration and intelligence agencies.

In a letter to GOP colleagues, McCarthy — speaking as “Speaker-Designate” — also addressed a request from conservatives to have more representation on committees.

“I will use my selections on key panels to ensure they more closely reflect the ideological makeup of our conference, and will advocate for the same when it comes to the membership of standing committees. This will facilitate greater scrutiny of bills from the start so they stand a greater chance of passing in the end,” the letter from McCarthy said.

However, despite McCarthy’s best attempts to re-attract hardline Republican lawmakers back to his side, some conservatives said after a Sunday conference call that McCarthy is still coming up short.

According to The Washington Examiner:

During the course of the call, multiple members “said they won’t vote for it [the rules package] if Kevin is not Speaker,” one lawmaker told The Examiner. Another member said moderates expressed grievances with the changes to the motion to vacate despite pro-McCarthy lawmakers attempting to sell the package to defectors in hopes it would shift critics’ support toward the California Republican.

“They started [the call] with this new rules package that we’re all about to see and are obviously saying the rules package – it’s great, everyone worked so hard, we got all these great things and they’re gonna be historic. And then [Gaetz] got on there and said, ‘Well, if everyone wants the rules package, we should accept it no matter who the speaker is because if these are good rules are good rules, right?’” the lawmaker said. “But then the mods piled on and said actually, we hate the rules package.”

Following the call, a group of conservatives released a letter saying the California Republican’s changes had come up short of what was needed to secure support.

“Regrettably, however, despite some progress achieved, Mr. McCarthy’s statement comes almost impossibly late to address continued deficiencies ahead of the opening of the 118th Congress on January 3rd. At this stage, it cannot be a surprise that expressions of vague hopes reflected in far too many of the crucial points still under debate are insufficient,” they wrote.

“This is especially true with respect to Mr. McCarthy’s candidacy for Speaker because the times call for radical departure from the status quo — not a continuation of past, and ongoing, Republican failures. For someone with a 14-year presence in senior House Republican leadership, Mr. McCarthy bears squarely the burden to correct the dysfunction he now explicitly admits across that long tenure.”

House Freedom Caucus chairman Scott Perry told The Hill on Sunday, “I think what he’s trying to do is the bare minimum that he needs to try and get to where he can get the votes. And that’s not indicative of somebody that really wants to embrace new ideas, reject the status quo and unify all members in the conference.”

Amanda Head: New Poll Spells Doom For Republicans

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The Trafalgar Group’s most recent poll is a troubling sign for Republicans who need to take back the House this year…

Amanda breaks down why conservatives should be nervous about November’s results below.

Ilhan Omar Reportedly Defended Trump Abroad, Shocking GOP Colleagues

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U.S. Rep Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, Rashida Tlaib, and Cori Bush speak at the Mississippi River in Minneapolis asking for President Biden to stop Line 3 pipeline construction.

“You will respect our president!”

In a moment few expected, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) allegedly came to the defense of President Donald Trump during a diplomatic trip to Europe earlier this year, according to Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL).

Luna recounted the incident on the PBD Podcast last week, describing a tense exchange between a Belgian official and a U.S. congressional delegation. Luna claimed the official mocked Trump, calling him disrespectful and treating the U.S. delegation as a joke.

That’s when, Luna said, Omar cut in and forcefully told the diplomat, “You might not like what our president is doing, and you might not agree with our foreign policy. But when we’re here, you will respect our president!”

The exchange reportedly occurred during an April meeting with European Union representatives. Luna described Omar’s comments as “surprising,” but said it was important for Americans to present a unified front when traveling abroad — especially, she added, against “jerks.”

The episode stands out, given Omar’s long track record of harsh criticism toward Trump. Just weeks ago, she referred to him as a “racist, corrupt liar.”

Trump has also lashed out at Omar, calling her a “disgrace” over her reaction to the assassination of conservative commentator Charlie Kirk.

Omar has not yet confirmed or commented publicly on Luna’s account.

Along with the clip of Luna discussing her conversation with Omar, viewers can also watch her complete 170-minute interview on the PBD Podcast below:

GOP Senator Breaks with Trump Over Kanye Dinner

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Donald Trump’s recent moves in Mar-a-Lago have triggered a distinct uptick in criticism from his Republican colleagues.

Trump hosted the rapper “Ye,” formerly known as Kanye West as well as white nationalist Nick Fuentes for dinner at his Florida resort last week. Ye has also faced criticism for his recent antisemitic remarks published on his social media channels.

Trump said in a post on Truth Social that Ye brought Fuentes, who has been labeled a “white supremacist” by the Justice Department, to the dinner and claimed he did not know who Fuentes was. Fuentes has denied that the Holocaust took place. 

“So I help a seriously troubled man, who just happens to be black, Ye (Kanye West), who has been decimated in his business and virtually everything else,” Trump wrote. “And who has always been good to me, by allowing his request for a meeting at Mar-a-Lago, alone, so that I can give him very much needed ‘advice.’” 

“He shows up with 3 people, two of which I didn’t know, the other a political person who I haven’t seen in years,” the former president added. “I told him don’t run for office, a total waste of time, can’t win. Fake News went CRAZY!”

Trump’s recent actions caused Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy to strongly rebuke the former President on Twitter.

“President Trump hosting racist antisemites for dinner encourages other racist antisemites. These attitudes are immoral and should not be entertained,” Cassidy tweeted.

Cassidy was among the seven Senate Republicans to vote to impeach the former President but the Senator’s harsh language comes after Trump saw a tepid response from GOP lawmakers after announcing his third campaign.