Voter turnout is likely to be the key factor…

The Wisconsin Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive and expensive races in the 2024 election cycle. Let’s take a deeper dive into this contentious race.

Tammy Baldwin: Meet The Incumbent

Senator Tammy Baldwin has represented Wisconsin in the U.S. Senate since 2012, making history as the first openly gay member of the chamber. She has built a reputation as a progressive champion, focusing on key issues like health care, LGBTQ+ rights and so-called economic fairness—advocating for reducing income inequality, expanding access to social safety nets and promoting the redistribution of wealth and resources. Over the course of her two terms, she has built a strong base of support in urban areas like Milwaukee and Madison but has alienated voters elsewhere over her support of far-left policies.

Baldwin faces a tough reelection battle in 2024 as Wisconsin’s political landscape has become increasingly competitive. However, with her incumbent status and a robust war chest, Baldwin remains a formidable candidate with deep connections to Wisconsin voters.

The Republican Challenger: Eric Hovde

Eric Hovde, a prominent businessman, philanthropist and Madison native, is making his second bid for the U.S. Senate in Wisconsin. As a successful entrepreneur, Hovde built a career in real estate investment and banking, having served as CEO of Hovde Properties and Hovde Capital Advisors. His business acumen has fueled his platform of fiscal conservatism, emphasizing reduced government spending and tax reform. Hovde is also known for his philanthropic work, particularly through his foundation, which focuses on supporting veterans, health care initiatives and combating homelessness. His campaign has receive significant support from conservative PACs, including the Fix Washington Political Action Committee, which received $1 million from Hovde’s brother days after its creation.

Key Policy Issues:

Fiscal Conservatism: Hovde emphasizes reducing government spending, cutting taxes and addressing the national debt through economic policies aimed at shrinking government intervention.

Health care Reform: He advocates for market-based solutions in health care, promoting competition and reducing the influence of government in the U.S. health care system.

Economic Growth: Hovde supports deregulation to help businesses thrive, focusing on reducing what he sees as overregulation that hinders job creation and economic expansion.

Critical Issues in the Race

The 2024 Senate race in Wisconsin will likely hinge on a few key issues that have shaped recent elections in the state. These include the economy, health care and the rural-urban divide that has become increasingly pronounced in Wisconsin politics.

1. The Economy: Wisconsin’s economy, like much of the Midwest, is heavily reliant on manufacturing and agriculture. Job creation, wage growth and trade policies will be at the forefront of voter concerns. Baldwin has championed policies aimed at revitalizing Wisconsin’s industrial base, such as her efforts to protect manufacturing jobs from outsourcing. However, Republicans argue that her policies have not gone far enough to stimulate economic growth, particularly in rural, GOP-leaning areas.
2. Health care: Health care continues to be a top issue for Wisconsin voters, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Baldwin has been an advocate for expanding health care access, including supporting Obamacare.
3. The Rural-Urban Divide: Like many other swing states, Wisconsin has a stark political divide between its urban and rural areas. Baldwin’s challenge will be to maintain her strong support in liberal strongholds like Madison and Milwaukee, while making inroads in rural areas that have increasingly turned to Republicans in recent elections. Hovde is working to bridge the gap between the party’s base in rural Wisconsin and more moderate, suburban voters. Waukesha, a historically suburban Republican stronghold west of Milwaukee that has shifted leftward in recent cycles, may play a decisive role depending on the margin of victory for Trump and Hovde there.

Campaign Spending and Fundraising

With control of the Senate at stake, both parties view Wisconsin as a true toss-up, guaranteeing that fundraising and spending will continue at unprecedented levels.

When all said and done, the 2024 Senate race is expected to be one of the most expensive in Wisconsin’s history, with both candidates benefiting from significant outside spending by national political action committees (PACs). According to Federal Election Commission (FEC) data, Baldwin has raised over $30 million, positioning her campaign to compete on a national level. Her campaign has benefitted from support from Democrat-leaning groups such as the Senate Majority PAC and organizations focused on health care and LGBTQ+ rights, according to Open Secrets.

On the Republican side, Hovde has brought considerable personal wealth to his campaign, as he did during his 2012 run according to FEC data. Prominent conservative PACs, Americans for Prosperity and Club For Growth have also been strong supporters of the Hovde campaign. Fix Washington PAC endorsed Hovde for his pro-business policies.

Voter Sentiment and Polling

Senator Baldwin’s approval ratings remain relatively strong, but Republicans see an opportunity to exploit national dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden’s administration, particularly on issues like inflation and immigration and uncertainty surrounding a potential Harris presidency.

Recent polling data highlights the competitiveness of the 2024 Wisconsin Senate race between the incumbent Senator and Republican businessman. Several sources point to a tightening contest:

• RealClearPolitics polling average shows Baldwin with a slim lead of around 3 percentage points over Hovde, with Baldwin polling at 49% and Hovde at 46%​.
• Wisconsin Watch reported Baldwin leading Hovde by 52% to 44%, but this lead appears to be outside the poll’s margin of error. Other polls, such as those from Emerson College and Marist College, also reflect a smaller gap, with Baldwin holding leads within 3-5 points​.
• A Cook Political Report poll marked the race as a “toss-up,” with a significant swing among independent voters toward Hovde, further tightening the race to a 49% to 47% split.
• A Quinnipiac University poll released October 9th, reported incumbent Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin has a slight lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde 50% to 46%.

The Wisconsin Senate race is crucial for both parties as they fight for control of the upper chamber. With Democrats holding a narrow 51-49 majority in the Senate, every competitive seat counts, and Wisconsin’s swing-state status means the race could play a decisive role in determining which party controls the Senate after 2024.

For Republicans, flipping Baldwin’s seat would not only bolster their chances of retaking the Senate but also signal a continued shift in the Midwest toward the GOP.

The 2024 Wisconsin Senate race will be one of the most closely watched contests in the nation, with both parties pouring significant resources into the state. Senator Tammy Baldwin’s bid for a third term will test her ability to maintain support in a politically divided state, while Republicans look to capitalize on national trends and local concerns to flip the seat.