Democratic-Leaning Pollster Shows Trump Leading Harris Nationally
A new national poll by Quinnipiac reveals a close and highly competitive race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. According to the poll, conducted between Sept. 19-22, Trump leads Harris by 1%, securing 48% of likely voters’ support compared to Harris’ 47%. (The previous August poll showed a different story, with Harris leading by 2%.)
Quinnipiac is a well-known polling institution that gained attention during the 2020 election cycle when it predicted an 11-point victory for President Biden – though the final margin was just 4.5 percentage points.
Polling Details at a Glance:
- Sample Size: 1,728 likely voters
- Dates: Sept. 19-22
- Previous Poll Results: Harris up by 2% in August
- Current Poll Results: Trump 48%, Harris 47%
Voter Demographics: A Deeper Look
Both Trump and Harris show strong support within their own parties, but Trump edges out Harris slightly among independent voters, with 47% compared to Harris’ 44%. Notably, Trump also holds a 14-point advantage with male voters, while Harris leads by 12 points among women.
When looking at age demographics, Harris performs best among older voters (65+), where she has an 8-point lead. She also wins the youngest voters (18-34), but only by 3%. Trump, on the other hand, captures the majority of voters in the 35-64 age group.
Key Findings on Racial and Ethnic Voters
A crucial factor in this tight race is the support from racial and ethnic groups:
- Black Americans overwhelmingly support Harris, with 83% expressing their preference for the Democratic candidate.
- Hispanic voters, however, tilt toward Trump, with 52% supporting him compared to 44% for Harris.
As The Hill reports:
Nearly two-thirds of likely voters, 64 percent, said they would like a second debate between the White House contenders. Around 31 percent of respondents thought otherwise. Last week, Harris accepted an invitation for a second showdown from CNN. Trump said during his campaign event in North Carolina that it’s “too late to do another” debate.
Another new poll, conducted by CNN and SSRS, found a similar split among likely voters. In the national poll, also released Tuesday, Harris received 48 percent support, while Trump got 47 percent.
Harris currently has a near-4 percent lead over Trump in the latest The Hill/Decision Desk HQ aggregate of polls. The vice president stands at 50.4 percent. The ex-president is at 46.5 percent.
The bottom line? The race is still too close to call with 41 days left until Election Day.
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