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    Polling Expert Gives Candidate 66% Chance Of Winning Election

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
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    0

    Bad news for Biden…

    Polling expert Nate Silver is predicting Donald Trump finds himself back in the White House.

    Silver was acclaimed in 2012 for correctly picking the winner of every state between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney and confidently forecasting an Obama victory. He was bullish on Hillary Clinton in 2016 but cautioned Trump had a reasonable chance.

    “The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden),” Silver, who formerly ran polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight, wrote in his “Silver Bulletin” substack. 

    Silver’s forecast model, based on 40,000 simulations, found Trump had a 65.7% of winning the electoral college, compared to Biden, who had a 33.7% chance. However, Biden is slightly favored to win the popular vote. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the presidency with a slew of narrow swing state wins.

    “If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 1 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied,” Silver wrote.

    The data expert wrote that there was still time for Biden to turn things around and suggested the president give the nomination to Vice President Harris or someone else at the Democratic convention. However, he wrote, “Disclaimer: that also might be a terrible idea.”`

    DeSantis Lays Out Timeline for 2024 Decision

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
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    7

    Americans may not have to wait much longer on Florida Governor Ron DeSantis‘s White House decision…

    The beloved Republican governor has been considered a potential White House contender for months but has remained silent over when Americans can expect a potential campaign announcement.

    On Monday, Gov. DeSantis indicated that he will make a decision on a 2024 presidential run after the state’s legislative session wraps up in May.

    During an appearance with “Fox & Friends” DeSantis charted out the next few months saying that he will embark on a tour to promote his new book, “The Courage to be Free,” and work through the Florida legislature’s regular session, which begins in early March.

    “We’re going to sell some books, we’re going to spread the message of Florida. And then on March 8, I have our Legislative Session that’s kicking off,” DeSantis said.

    “You ain’t seen nothing yet,” he added. “This is going to be the most productive Legislative Session we have had across the board and I think people are going to be really excited … So those are what we’re going to be doing over these next few months as we get beyond that, then we can decide from there.”

    Republicans now hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature after November’s midterm elections, meaning DeSantis has a clear path to getting some of his biggest policy priorities approved.

    His remarks on Monday were some of the most explicit from the Florida governor on when to expect an announcement. 

    Report: GOP Senators Snub Trump Convention Invite

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
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    6
    Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons

    Some Senate Republicans Are still keeping Donald Trump at arms length.

    Four Senate GOP members in that mold — Sens. Mitt Romney (Utah), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Todd Young (Ind.) and Thom Tillis (N.C.) — told The Hill they do not plan on traveling to the Republican National Convention in July to celebrate what will be a “coronation” of the ex-president. Five others — Sens. Mike Rounds (S.D.), Susan Collins (Maine), Bill Cassidy (La.), Jerry Moran (Kan.) and Rand Paul (Ky.) — indicated they have not decided whether to go at this point.

    “Everybody’s got to make their own call about it, but it’s part of our political life,” Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) said. “The conventions have been going on for a long time, and I think the parties are tasked with trying to pull people together and make the decisions that are important to the leadership of our country.

    “I understand if there are people for whom it is not a big priority,” Thune added. 

    Murkowski and Young both said they both have travel plans that week but did not divulge what they were. Romney was never expected to go, given the mutual disdain between him and Trump, whom he twice voted to convict in impeachment trials. 

    Tillis said in a brief interview that while he hasn’t finalized his plans, he is “likely not going to go.” 

    “I’m just not a convention-goer, quite honestly. Back in the state, we have races to run. We’ll be represented,” Tillis said of the convention, noting that he cannot be a delegate. “There’s other competing priorities that week that I have to sort out before I make a decision.” 

    Collins said that she has not made a decision and needs to go over her schedule. Cassidy told The Hill to ask him closer to the convention and indicated he has not decided either.

    Rounds indicated that while he has no plans to attend, he still could be swayed if Trump selects someone he approves of as his running mate. 

    “Yeah, it might,” Rounds said when asked if Trump selecting Scott could sway him to show up in Milwaukee. “If we could go and support his candidacy, that would be something I would really take a hard look at. … I haven’t got any hotel rooms yet, but that doesn’t mean I might not in the future.”

    North Dakota Governor Enters White House Race

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
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    2
    North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, greets U.S. President Donald J. Trump arrives at the North Dakota Air National Guard Base, Fargo, N.D., Sept. 7, 2018. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Senior Master Sgt. David H Lipp)

    A relatively unknown Republican Governor has decided to enter the 2024 primary field in what appears to be an ever-growing group of competitors.

    On Wednesday, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum became the most recent Republican to enter the race.

    Burgum announced his candidacy in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal.

    “We need a change in the White House. We need a new leader for a changing economy. That’s why I’m announcing my run for president today,” he wrote.

    The economy must be our top priority. We need to get inflation under control, cut taxes, lower gas prices and reduce the cost of living.

    We need to stop buying energy from our enemies and start selling it to our friends and allies. America produces the cleanest and safest energy in the world. Anyone who cares about the environment should want all energy produced here.

    Finally, we must recognize the real threat to America and strengthen national security. Our enemies aren’t our neighbors down the street. Our enemies are countries that want to see our way of life destroyed. The first time I ever saw Great Plains’ software in China in 1989 it had been stolen and pirated to sell for a tiny fraction of our price. We must rebuild our military and re-establish our nation’s position of strength to win the cold war with China.

    “There’s a value to being underestimated all the time,” Burgum told The Forum Editorial Board in an interview published last month. “That’s a competitive advantage.”

    Burgum, who has served as the governor since 2016, announced his campaign during an event in Fargo.

    Besides former President Trump, the Republican presidential nomination field includes Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina governor and former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, former two-term Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, multimillionaire entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and Michigan businessman Perry Johnson.

    On Monday, former Vice President Mike Pence formally filed paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) ahead of his expected announcement on June 7.

    Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who ran for the 2016 presidential nomination, also filed his paperwork with the FEC on Tuesday.

    Is Doug Mastriano Planning a Senate Run?

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
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    2
    Photo via Wikimedia Commons

    While Doug Mastriano’s November gubernatorial loss disappointed Republicans retired Army colonel-turned-state senator seems ready to strategize for the future.

    A new report from POLITICO reveals Mastriano’s first steps toward a potential Senate run in 2024 and it seems clear he’s not ready to throw in the towel when it comes to pursuing higher office.

    “What do you do with a movement of 2.2 million?” he told POLITICO. “We’re keeping it alive.”

    “We’ve seen people in the past, other Republican gubernatorial candidates, they rise and they disappear when they lose. Why?” he asked. “You have people that love you and support you.”

    Mastriano affirmed he is “praying” about whether to go forward with a potential Senate run in 2024. After God, his wife, Rebbie, will have the final word he said.

    However, if Mastriano does decide to mount a Senate campaign the Republican would run in a primary for the right to take on Democrat Sen. Bob Casey. Which is likely to be a considerable challenge due in part to Sen. Casey’s familial history in the Keystone State.

    POLITICO noted that “no one in the Pennsylvania GOP establishment is eager for that matchup. “

    Casey’s father, former Gov. Robert Casey Sr., signed abortion regulations into law that went all the way to a landmark Supreme Court case, where they were largely kept intact. Mastriano even noted that Casey Sr. was “more pro-life than most Republicans” before insisting Sen. Casey is incapable of living up to his father’s legacy.

    “I think he’s a huge disappointment. He’s nothing like his dad,” he said.

    Still, all signs point to the fact Mastriano is taking steps to position himself for a possible run. He’s planning an upcoming rally in central Pennsylvania, which will feature Trump lawyer Christina Bobb and conservative media personality Wendy Bell as speakers. Mastriano also led a hearing on the East Palestine train derailment over the border from the incident in western Pennsylvania, and he successfully pushed a committee he chairs to subpoena Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw to testify.

    He also hired Dan Cox, the unsuccessful Maryland gubernatorial nominee, as his chief-of-staff which has fueled speculation he might want to run for higher office again. He seemed to confirm the link during the interview.

    “Hmm,” he said, laughing. “Gute erkennung. As the Germans say, ‘Good deduction.’”

    Meta Executive Reveals When Trump Could Return to Social Media

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
    -
    5

    Could former President Trump finally be coming back to social media? A top company executive says so.

    The president of global affairs at Facebook’s parent company, Meta, Nick Clegg says the former president could be given access to his Facebook account before the next presidential election, according to The Washington Examiner.

    Speaking at a conference on Thursday, Clegg said the company would reconsider allowing Trump on the platform after consulting experts and weighing the risk of real-world harm.

    “When you make a decision that affects the public realm, you need to act with great caution,” Clegg told Semafor, the news publication hosting the event. “You shouldn’t throw your weight about.”

    The Meta executive emphasized that the truthfulness of Trump’s claims would not be the driving factor in determining whether to allow Trump back on the platform.

    “If we think there is content on our platform which will lead to real-world harm — physical harm — then we feel we have a clear responsibility to act against it,” Clegg emphasized.

    Facebook and other major social media companies made shockwaves in 2021 by banning the U.S. president from the platforms following the Jan. 6th Capitol raid. Most platforms alleged Trump’s rhetoric on the platforms incited the riot. At the time of the ban, Trump was among the top 10 individuals in the world with the highest following.

    However, even if Trump is given his old account back there is no guarantee the former president will even darken Facebook’s door. Since being kicked off major media platforms the former president has started his own TRUTH Social platform.

    In a May SEC filing, Trump’s tech company, Trump Media and Technology Group, said that the former president would favor Truth Social over other social media platforms if he is allowed back on them.

    Trump Press Sec. Claims Campaign Will Have ‘Soldiers’ Watching Polling Stations on Election Day

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
    -
    3
    President Donald J. Trump is presented with a 10th Combat Aviation Brigade challenge coin following an air assault and gun rain demonstration at Fort Drum, New York, on August 13. The demonstration was part of President Trump's visit to the 10th Mountain Division (LI) to sign the National Defense Authorization Act of 2019, which increases the Army's authorized active-duty end strength by 4,000 enabling us to field critical capabilities in support of the National Defense Strategy. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Thomas Scaggs) 180813-A-TZ475-010

    Is this a step too far?

    On Monday, former President Donald Trump’s press secretary told Kimberly Guilfoyle during an interview that Trump plans to deploy “soldiers” to monitor polling stations on election day in an effort to make sure “there are no irregularities” or “fraud.”

    Karoline Leavitt, who previously ran for Congress and lost, explained the plan during an appearance on The Kimberly Guilfoyle Show.

    Mediaite has more:

    We’re so excited about our recent merger with the Republican National Committee and the new leadership we have there in both Lara Trump and Michael Whatley. Our team is already working hand-in-hand with the staff at the RNC as one very lean and mean machine, as we like to call it, with one goal, and that goal is victory for Republicans up and down the ballot on November 5th.

    We have the team, now it’s time to deploy the troops on the ground. We have an amazing volunteer-led effort right now in all of the battleground states, in addition to our great paid staff who will be making direct voter contact every single hour of every day between now and November 5th to get out the vote. A large part of this is also educating voters on the laws within their state. If you live in an early voting state, we encourage you to get out and vote early, cast your ballot. You don’t know what could happen to you on election day.

    And then we’re also investing a lot of money into voter integrity efforts to ensure that every American knows their ballot will be cast and counted and matter, and we’re gonna play offense this time around. We’re not gonna play defense like we unfortunately did in 2020. We’re gonna have soldiers, poll watchers on the ground who are making sure that there are no irregularities and fraud like we saw in the last election cycle.

    Guilfoyle replied, “I love it. I cannot wait. It’s gonna be fantastic.”

    This is hardly the first time Trump has called for backup at the polls. During the 2020 election, the then-President encouraged supporters to stay vigilant and independently monitor polling stations for evidence of fraud.

    “I am encouraging my supporters to go into the polls and watch very carefully because that’s what has to happen,” said Trump at the time. “I am urging them to do it.”

    New Polls Show Trump’s Competitive Edge In Most Swing States

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
    -
    1
    Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

    Democrats are freaking out but the numbers don’t lie…

    Multiple new polls show that former President Donald Trump is currently leading President Joe Biden in many of the most critical swing states.

    The polls, conducted by Bloomberg News & Morning Consult, were taken in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — seven key battlegrounds. And the returns don’t for Biden — specifically when it comes to the economy.

    Mediaite has more:

    “Swing state voters trust Trump significantly more than Biden on the economy (49% to 35%), with independents holding even less trust in Biden on this key issue (47% to 25%),” Morning Consult reported. “Among the 1,323 self-identified independents across the seven states, Biden is 10 points behind Trump on the ballot that includes third-party candidates, and he is 8 points behind Trump in a direct head-to-head.”

    As for the state-by-state results, in Arizona, Biden is polling at 43 percent while Trump has 47 percent. Biden is also trailing Georgia (Trump 48-Biden 43), North Carolina (Trump 47-Biden 43), Pennsylvania (Trump 46-Biden 45) and Wisconsin (Trump 46-Biden 44)

    The Michigan poll shows Trump and Biden in a 44 percent deadlock, and Nevada is the only battleground where Biden is shown to be leading — with 46 percent to Trump’s 43. The poll determined in a closed matchup between Biden and Trump, the former president leads his successor by 4 points overall.

    Biden defeated Trump in all but one of these battleground states during the 2020 election.

    Family Nanny Shares Presidential Candidate’s Disturbing Text Messages

    By
    Patrick Houck
    -
    3

    Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. finds himself embroiled in controversy today as accusations of sexual assault from 1998 have come to light. According to a revealing exposé in Vanity Fair, Kennedy is accused of groping his family’s nanny, Eliza Cooney.

    The Allegations and Kennedy’s Response

    Cooney, who worked as the Kennedy family’s weekend nanny in the 1990s, claims the incident occurred when she was 23 years old. At the time, RFK Jr. was 45 and married with five children. Cooney, who told her story to Vanity Fair earlier this month, passionately claims that Kennedy assaulted her, leading to a wave of outrage and calls for accountability.

    Kennedy’s response has been far from ideal. In an unsolicited text message reported by The Washington Post, he issued a non-apology to Cooney. Kennedy claimed he couldn’t recall if he committed the assault but expressed regret if he did anything to make her uncomfortable. “I never intended you any harm. If I hurt you, it was inadvertent. I feel badly for doing so,” he wrote. Cooney called the message “disingenuous and arrogant.”

    “I’m not sure how somebody has a true apology for something that they don’t admit to recalling. I did not get a sense of remorse,” she told the Post.

    Potential for More Accusers?

    When questioned about the possibility of other women coming forward, Kennedy’s response was vague and unsettling: “I don’t know, we’ll see what happens.”

    Polls show Kennedy at around 9% nationally. Independent candidates often struggle to secure a significant number of electoral votes, but RFK Jr.’s high profile could siphon votes from both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, potentially altering the dynamics of the race.

    Key Takeaways:

    • Independent candidate RFK Jr. accused of groping nanny in 1998.
    • Issued a nonapology, expressing regret without clear admission.
    • Potential for more accusers remains uncertain.
    • Polls show Kennedy at 9% nationally.

    This article originally appeared on American Liberty News. Republished with permission.

    READ NEXT: Intelligence Officials Expose Foreign Election Interference Plot

    Fetterman Admits Trump’s ‘Special’ Bond With Pennsylvania Growing Post-Assassination Attempt

    By
    admin
    -
    1
    Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

    Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman (D) acknowledged on Saturday that former President Donald Trump has a unique connection with the state, which he believes only intensified after the attempted assassination in Butler earlier this year.

    Fetterman’s comments came as part of an effort to draw Vice President Kamala Harris’ attention to the dynamics in his must-win state. “I trust her instincts, and she’s got a great team around her. She’s an amazing candidate overall,” Fetterman said, before comparing Harris’ candidacy to that of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. “Secretary Clinton was fantastic, perhaps the most supremely accomplished candidate I can remember. And see what happened.”

    The senator pointed out Trump’s enduring appeal in Pennsylvania, stating, “Trump has created a special kind of hold. He has a special kind of place in Pennsylvania, and I think that only deepened after that first assassination attempt.”

    The Daily Caller looked deeper into the senator’s provocative comments:

    Trump survived the attempted assassination during a July 13 campaign rally in Butler County, Pennsylvania that left him slightly wounded, seriously injured two attendees and took the life of former volunteer fire chief Corey Comperatore. Fetterman said that he wasn’t going to “mansplain” the situation to Vice President Kamala Harris, but noted that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was a “fantastic” presidential candidate in 2016 though she ultimately lost the presidency to Trump.

    “Trump has created a special kind of a hold … he’s remade the party and he has a special kind of place in Pennsylvania,” Fetterman told interviewer Jeffrey Goldberg. “And I think that only deepened after that first assassination attempt.”

    Harris currently leads Trump by 1.0% in a head-to-head matchup in Pennsylvania, according to the RealClearPolling average of polls, with the lead expanding to 2.17% when other candidates, such as Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein, independent candidate Cornel West and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, are included.

    Fetterman warned elsewhere in his interview with Goldberg that Clinton was leading Trump in Pennsylvania polling during the 2016 race, but lost the crucial swing state to Trump.

    “Everybody thought that it was in the bag, but that’s not the energy and the other kinds of things that were really consistent with what I’m witnessing all across,” he warned. “And then, sadly, we saw what happened.”

    The senator is known for occasionally breaking with his party’s progressive base, particularly on issues like Israel and immigration.

    READ NEXT: How Is This Not Big News? Google’s Glitch Would Be Savaged On MSM If It Hadn’t Helped This Candidate

    I Am Donald J. Trump. FEAR NOT! There are those who will do whatever it takes to stop us, but I will never stop fighting for you. I will never surrender! Your support means everything to me. Together, through our UNITY, we will Make America Great Again!
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