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Nate Silver Labels November Election A ‘Toss-up’

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(Los Angeles - EUA, 09/06/2022) Presidente da República Jair Bolsonaro, durante Sessão Plenária de Abertura da IX Cúpula das Américas..Foto: Alan Santos/PR

This is big news…

Prominent polling guru and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver is sounding the alarm for Republicans after he re-labeled the presidential election a “toss-up.”

In a post online, Silver recalled a past article where he argued that the race wasn’t a toss-up because of how poor Biden was performing in key swing states, even before his debate performance shocked Democrats into action.

“Now that the election is in kamala_mode, however, it’s far from clear whose position you’d rather be in, and I wouldn’t blame if you wanted to bet either on Harris or on Trump,” he wrote.

As of Thursday, Silver argued, Harris and former President Trump each have at least a 40 percent chance of winning the election. Harris earns 44.6 percent compared to Trump’s 54.9, he said.

“It’s not exactly 50/50, but close enough that a poker player would call it a ‘flip’: Democrats have ace-king suited, and Republicans have pocket jacks,” Silver said.

The FiveThirtyEight founder said Harris is performing well in swing states but it’s still up in the air. He said she has a 54 percent chance of winning Michigan, a 50 percent chance of winning Wisconsin and a 47 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania.

Silver echoed similar warnings that Democrats shouldn’t be too excited. His model has accounted for the excitement that’s generated for Harris after she became the likely nominee but it could be “a temporary surge of Democratic enthusiasm.”

“Still, we’re not exactly going out on a limb here. Betting markets agree with the assessment that the race is about 50/50,” he said.

“And although we can’t tell you who’s going to win, there’s one thing I think we can say with some confidence: Democrats are lucky that they’re getting a second chance in this election with Harris instead of Biden,” Silver concluded.

Report: RFK Jr. Withdraws From Arizona Ballot

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Photo via Gage Skidmore Flickr

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has filed paperwork to remove his name from Arizona’s 2024 presidential ballot.

“RFK Jr.’s campaign filed official paperwork with our office today withdrawing him from AZ’s 2024 election,” Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes (D) said Thursday.

Kennedy announced Wednesday that he would address the nation Friday about his political future. His campaign said the speech, at 2 p.m. EDT in Phoenix, would center on “the present historical moment and his path forward.” (RELATED: RFK Jr. Announces Friday Press Conference Amid Withdrawal Whispers)

Trump’s campaign said the former president will be joined later Friday by a “special guest” at a rally in Arizona.

“President Trump will be joined by a special guest as he delivers remarks about his America First policies and his vision to lower inflation and the cost of living, secure the border, and make our cities safe again,” the Trump campaign said in a press release.

Trump said that he would be “honored” by a Kennedy endorsement. (RELATED: Trump Says He’s ‘Open’ To Having RFK Jr. Join His Administration)

“He’s a brilliant guy. He’s a very smart guy. I’ve known him for a very long time,” Trump said. “I didn’t know he was thinking about getting out, but if he is thinking about getting out, certainly I’d be open to it.”

Trump said that he would “love” an endorsement from Kennedy because he’s “always liked” him.

He indicated that he “probably would” appoint Kennedy to a role in the administration if Kennedy were to drop out and endorse him.

“I like him a lot. I respect him a lot,” Trump said. “I probably would, if something like that would happen. He’s a very different kind of a guy — a very smart guy. And, yeah, I would be honored by that endorsement, certainly.”

Donald Trump Jr., the former president’s son, said Wednesday that he is in favor of having Kennedy be a part of a government agency and allowing him to “blow it up.”

“I loved the idea, love the idea of giving him some sort of role in some sort of major three-letter entity or whatever it may be and let him blow it up,” Trump Jr. said on “The Glenn Beck Program.”

“I think that’s what we need. And so, I think that kind of unity, even where there may be certain disagreements on certain things, I think he could be a really great asset for that.”

Mike Pompeo Offers New Insight into Possible Presidential Run

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Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo raised eyebrows when he was recently asked if he plans to launch a presidential campaign in 2024, possibly teeing up a challenge against his old boss Donald Trump.

During a “Faith and Freedom Barbecue” event in South Carolina hosted by Rep. Jeff Duncan, Pompeo stopped short of confirming his next political move but was clear to note he would not let any outside actors influence his decision to run for office. The event is known to attract political donors as well as presidential hopefuls, other high profile Republicans in attendance included Governor Henry McMaster and Senator Tim Scott, who has also been floated as a possible presidential contender.

Mediaite reports:

“We’re going to make our decision based on if we think this is the right place for us to serve,” Pompeo said. “If I come to believe I ought to become president, that I have something to offer the American people, I will run no matter who all decides to get in and who else decides not to get in the race.”

The remark was a thinly-veiled shot at the former president who has not shied away from saying he’s seriously considering a third run for the White House. Trump’s repeated hints regarding his potential campaign have caused some conservatives to hold off on making their own decisions regarding the race.

In April, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley said she planned to support Trump in 2024 and would not launch her own campaign against him.

“I would not run if President Trump ran, and I would talk to him about it. That’s something that we’ll have a conversation about, at some point, if that decision is something that has to be made,” she remarked.

This is hardly the first hint Pompeo has dropped that he’s seriously considering a run for president. In June, Fox News host Maria Bartiromo asked the ex-Secretary of State about his political ambitions.

“Are you planning to run for president in ’24?” she asked.

“Well, thanks for the compliment,” Pompeo deflected. “We need to build an American majority and an American coalition.”

“I’m working on 2022 all across the country helping to get folks elected,” he added. “And Susan and I will work and pray and decide how we’re going to best serve America as we move forward.”

Does Mike Pompeo have what it takes to take on Trump? Tell us your thoughts in the comments below!

Amanda Head: Sources Reveal When to Expect DeSantis’ 2024 Announcement

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America is waiting…

When will Florida Governor Ron DeSantis officially throw his hat into the ring for the 2024 Republican nomination? Sources close to the governor are spilling the beans…

Watch Amanda explain the situation below:

Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

Trump Takes Part In Influencing Legal Future

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Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

Former President Donald Trump is scheduled for a probation interview Monday, a standard part of the sentencing process for those convicted in New York state court.

The interview, aimed at influencing his upcoming sentencing in July, will take place later today.

NBC News has more on the virtual hearing:

The pre-sentencing probation interview will be done over a special virtual network with added security measures, and the interviewer will be a female, according to two sources with knowledge of the situation. The call is not expected to be held over Zoom, those sources added.

Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, was convicted last month on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the historic case. The probation interview is required by the court as part of the former president’s pre-sentencing report.

Judge Juan Merchan, who is presiding over the hush money case, permitted Blanche to be present for the probation interview after prosecutors did not object. The Trump defense team is scheduled to submit their sentencing recommendation on June 13.

The former president is scheduled to be sentenced for all 34 felony counts in New York on July 11, days before the Republican National Convention begins.

Trump will conduct the interview from Mar-a-Lago in Florida with Blanche by his side.

The probation officer will record Trump’s lack of criminal history, employment record, current financial status, and observations regarding his “physical and mental condition,” all of which Merchan will consider in his sentencing.

READ NEXT: US Olympic Team’s Colossal Mistake – Huge Star Snubbed For Idiotic Reason…

Biden vs. Trump: Latest Poll Reveals Surprising Lead Ahead Of Republican Convention

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Photo via Gage Skidmore Flickr

A+ Rated Poll Shows Biden Edging Out Trump – What Does This Mean for 2024?

Just days before the Republican National Convention kicks off, a newly released NPR/PBS News/Marist poll reveals that President Joe Biden is leading former President Donald Trump in a tight race among registered voters. The poll, conducted from July 9 to July 10, shows Biden ahead with 50% of the vote compared to Trump’s 48%, leaving 2% of voters undecided. This marks a slight shift from last month’s pre-debate poll, where both candidates were tied at 49%.

Key Findings:

  • Voter Concerns: By a margin of more than two to one, voters are more concerned with candidates who lie than with those who are too old to serve.
  • Mental Fitness: Despite Biden’s lead, nearly two-thirds of Americans question his mental fitness for the presidency. Respondents were evenly split regarding Trump’s mental acuity, suggesting concerns about both candidates.
  • Character Assessment: The poll highlights a stark contrast in public perception of character. A majority believe Biden is a man of integrity, while Trump is perceived as lacking the character required for the presidency.

Why Marist Polls Matter

Marist, known for its accuracy and methodological rigor, continues to be a trusted source in political polling. Their partnership with major media outlets and commitment to transparency and innovation ensure that their findings are both reliable and insightful.

NPR has additional information on the findings:

Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.

The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.

The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.

“This is an unpleasant rematch with two unpopular people,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, “but Biden gets points for honesty and character. As a result, there’s a lot of canceling out.”

Final Thoughts

Ultimately, poll numbers provide a snapshot of the current political climate. The only numbers that really matter will come in November.

That being said, who do you think will come out on top in the 2024 election? And does the latest poll change your opinion on the trajectory of the race for the White House?

READ NEXT: NY Times ‘Icon’ Reveals Shocking Truth Behind Trump Panic

Report: Trump Narrows VP Search Down to Two Candidates

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Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

The highly awaited announcement is coming soon…

According to a report from The New York Post, Donald Trump is now seriously considering two candidates to become his running mate.

Barring a last-minute surprise, the sources say, the 67-year-old Burgum and the 39-year-old Vance are the clear front-runners for the GOP’s VP slot, with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) still having an outside shot.

Other rumored options, such as Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Dr. Ben Carson, were dismissed as having little chance of being picked — with one source going so far as to say there was “no way” Trump, 78, would tap Carson.

The New York Post has more:

“It would honestly make no sense,” one source said.

One source close to Trump gave a slight edge to Burgum being the 45th president’s running mate, saying the North Dakotan had a 50-50 chance of being selected and Vance had a 30% chance, with Rubio and the field each having a 10% percent chance.

A different source close to the Trump campaign said the choice was “gonna be JD, Marco or Burgum” and that they didn’t “see a scenario where one of those three doesn’t end up getting it.”

“I would give Burgum and JD a little more of an edge than Marco,” the source added, handicapping that “Marco still has a shot” and that “Burgum and JD have an equal shot.”

“JD because that’s who Don Jr. and Trump’s inner orbit seem to be pushing for,” this person said. “Donors [are] pushing Burgum for stability.”

However, Rubio is reportedly scheduled to be at Trump’s Doral, Fla., rally on Tuesday night and changed his schedule at the last minute to ensure he would make it.

Trump is having another rally in western Pennsylvania on Saturday, potentially giving him a prime opportunity to announce Vance, who reps neighboring Ohio, as his choice.

California Governor Finally Breaks Silence on 2024 Run

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Casa Rosada (Argentina Presidency of the Nation), CC BY 2.5 AR via Wikimedia Commons

California Governor Gavin Newsom is putting rumors to rest that he’s plotting a primary challenge against Joe Biden in the next election cycle.

Newsom, who has faced increased scrutiny recently due to speculation he’s planning to mount a presidential campaign, told reporters that he’s “all in” on Biden 2024 and has made that same commitment to other White House officials, according to Mediaite.

“I’ve told everyone in the White House, from the chief of staff to the first lady,” he recounted to me as we sat on the top floor of California’s now-ceremonial governor’s mansion on election night.

His message to Ron Klain and Jill Biden over the summer — when he visited Washington amid growing speculation, and considerable West Wing irritation, that he was plotting a primary challenge — was to count him as a firm supporter of Biden’s reelection: “I’m all in, count me in,” he said he told them.

Newsom relayed the same to Biden himself on election night.

Newsom says when he spoke to Biden on Election Night, he told the president “I’m all in; put me in coach. We have your back.”

Newsom’s declaration of support for Biden comes as he already faces a 2020 rematch against Donald Trump, who recently announced his own 2024 campaign. However, Trump’s announcement has been met with mixed feelings from Republicans as some say his bombastic character and history make him unlikely to win another national election.

Over the weekend, Twitter CEO Elon Musk announced he plans to support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for president in 2024 if he mounts a bid, despite just reinstating Trump’s Twitter account access.

“I’m fine with Trump not tweeting,” Musk wrote in reply to a tweet about Trump’s restored account. “The important thing is that Twitter correct a grave mistake in banning his account, despite no violation of the law or terms of service.”

“Deplatforming a sitting President undermined public trust in Twitter for half of America,” he said.

In his reply thread, Musk said that in 2024 he wants someone “sensible centrist” in office, and that Biden has not been that. When someone replied to ask him directly whether Ron DeSantis would fit the bill, he said yes.

Is Vivek Ramaswamy The GOP’s New Trump ‘Lite’?

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Vivek Ramaswamy speaking with attendees at the 2022 AmericaFest at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix, Arizona.

ANALYSIS- Who is this skinny guy with the funny-sounding name? (That was his opening line at the debate). Vivek Ramaswamy wasn’t supposed to be at the center of the first Republican presidential candidate debate in Milwaukee.

Ron DeSantis was supposed to be the viable GOP alternative to Donald Trump. A two-term governor of the third most populous state in the union, DeSantis, a Navy veteran who served in Iraq, is as conservative as they come.

And he has a proven track record of fighting the left in Florida – and winning.

But despite his solid bona fides and resume, DeSantis has a personality problem. He just doesn’t exude charm or confidence, and that’s hurting him – a lot.

Meanwhile, Ramaswamy the 38-year-old Trump-defending, Cincinnati-born, biotech billionaire (worth at least $950 million), son of Pakistani immigrants, kind of stole the show at the debate.

According to former FBI agent and body language expert, Joe Navarro: “[Ramaswamy] consistently looked the most comfortable on stage.”

He was also the most openly and unabashedly pro-Trump. He was the first candidate to raise their hand when asked who would support the former President as the party nominee even if he is convicted on felony charges that he’s facing.

He has also promised to pardon Trump if elected. But he went even farther than that.

“President Trump, I believe, was the best president of the 21st century,” Ramaswamy said in a clip from the debate Trump posted on Truth Social.

And Trump loved it.

“This answer gave Vivek Ramaswamy a big WIN in the debate because of a thing called TRUTH. Thank you, Vivek!”

The ever-smiling political newbie Ramaswamy, who seemed to be having a blast on stage, was also the target of many of his GOP rivals.

As TIME reported:

Maybe it was Ramaswamy’s consistent and confounding defense of All Things Trump. Maybe it was his smooth talk and culture-war acumen. Maybe it was just the fact that Ramaswamy frankly does not care how things were done before and might just have enough self-made money to go the distance.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie snarled that he had “had enough already tonight of a guy who sounds like ChatGPT,” an A.I. battery. He then dismissed Ramaswamy as someone on the same level as a political figure universally loathed in the GOP. “The last person in one of these debates… who stood in the middle of the stage and said, ‘What is a skinny guy with an odd last name doing up here?’ was Barack Obama. And I am afraid we are dealing with the same type of amateur standing on the stage tonight,” Christie said.

But the quick witted Ramaswamy’s riposte to Christie was a zinger: “Give me a hug like you did to Obama, and you’ll help elect me just like you did to Obama. Give me the damn hug, brother.”

Ramaswamy was referring to the 2012 incident when Christie was accused of “hugging” Obama during his visit in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy which hit days before the 2012 presidential election.

It’s a claim that Christie has been denying since then, saying: “I didn’t hug him.”

Photos at the time seem to back up Christie, but the zinger still worked.

Former U.S. Ambassador to the UN under Trump, and ex-South Carolina governor, Nikki Haley, who is of Indian descent, hit Ramaswamy too: “You have no foreign policy experience, and it shows.”

I would agree with that assessment and believe he has made a few deeply flawed important national security statements – including on Ukraine and Israel.

But he is super smart and can learn quickly.

Then Vice President Mike Pence took a Christie-like jab at Ramaswamy, attacking the very same quality that originally helped raise Trump in the GOP base – that he is not a politician.

“Now it’s not the time for on-the-job training,” retorted Pence. “We don’t need to bring in a rookie. We don’t need to bring in people with no experience.”

AS TIME noted: “Attacks during debates are the norm but this was different. Ramaswamy’s competitors really don’t like him. Not even a little.”

However, there is one important GOP rival who seems to like Ramaswamy – Donald Trump. And that could be all that matters.

Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

DeSantis Commits to First GOP Presidential Primary Debate

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Florida Governor and presidential contender Ron DeSantis is refusing to stand in the shadow of Donald Trump.

DeSantis plans to participate in the first Republican presidential nomination debate “regardless” of whether former President Donald Trump takes the stage at the August showdown. 

“I’ll be there regardless. I hope everybody who’s eligible comes. I think it’s an important part of the process and I look forward to being able to be on the stage and introducing our candidacy and our vision and our leadership to a wide audience,” DeSantis said Thursday on “Fox News Tonight.”

Trump, who’s the commanding front-runner in the latest GOP presidential primary polls, has indicated that he may skip the debate. However, Trump campaign officials say the former president has yet to make a final decision on his participation. Trump’s aides have also been looking into options for an alternative event should the former president skip the debate, according to Fox News.

The debate is scheduled for August 23 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and will be hosted by Fox News.

The Republican National Committee (RNC), which is organizing all the GOP presidential nominating debates, is requiring a high donor threshold as well as polling thresholds for candidates to make the stage. 

The RNC is also mandating that candidates that meet the thresholds sign a loyalty pledge to back the eventual 2024 GOP nominee, in order to participate in the debate.

The state of Florida is adding a similar loyalty requirement for candidates to be included on the state’s ballot, according to POLITICO.

The new oath, which includes a promise to “endorse” the GOP nominee and requires a candidate to pledge not to run as an independent or third-party candidate, mirrors language adopted by the Republican National Committee for its first debate.

“We were trying to be consistent with what the debate was requiring,” said Evan Power, vice chair of the Republican Party of Florida, who said that campaigns were notified about the changes. “I don’t think this will come as a surprise.”