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    Nate Silver’s Forecast: Harris Now Favored Over Trump In 2024 Election

    By
    Patrick Houck
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    4
    Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

    In a significant shift, Vice President Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump in the latest 2024 election forecast from data expert Nate Silver. According to Silver’s “Silver Bulletin” election model, Harris currently holds a 58% likelihood of winning the presidency, compared to Trump’s 42%.

    This marks a reversal from early September, when Trump had over a 60% chance of victory. Silver attributes the shift to changes in polling data. He noted that Harris has gained a 3-point lead nationally and has been performing well in key battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina.

    The exception is Arizona, where Harris has struggled in recent polling, but Silver noted it has only a 5% chance of being the tipping-point state.

    While Silver still categorizes the race as a toss-up, he suggested that Harris’s hand appears stronger. He also pointed to positive economic revisions, which he said have bolstered Harris’s chances.

    Silver explained that Harris has two viable paths to securing the Electoral College, whereas Trump’s options appear more limited. Harris could win the presidency even if she loses all the toss-up states, provided she secures Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

    Mediaite has further details on Harris’ “Plan A” and “Plan B” pathways to victory:

    Silver’s latest write-up of his forecast notes that Harris, unlike Trump, has two solid routes to winning the Electoral College. Harris can lose all the toss-up states while winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and still become president.

    Silver calls this “Plan A” – the long talked about “blue wall” that crumbled in 2016 for Hillary Clinton. Silver explains that Harris also has a “Plan B” if one of those states falls – despite her polling up in all three. Harris can win “North Carolin, Georgia, or both” in order to still get to 270 – especially as she’s in striking position in Nevada and ahead in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

    Trump, on the other hand, must win all of the toss-up states and at least one of the three “blue wall’ states.

    As recently as a few weeks ago, Silver’s model had Trump leading Harris in betting odds. However, recent developments have reshaped the landscape as the 2024 election approaches.

    Silver’s full analysis is available by clicking here.

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    Activists Seek to Disqualify Trump From 2024 Ballot

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
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    10
    Photo via Gage Skidmore Flickr

    Two activist groups want to keep former President Donald Trump from the White House by any means necessary.

    The groups say secretaries of state are empowered by the 14th Amendment to bar Trump from running for office because of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection. The groups are calling their campaign “Trump is Disqualified,” and are timing it to coincide with the 155th anniversary of the 14th Amendment.

    The Hill has more:

    Starting Sunday, Mi Familia Vota and Free Speech for People will stage a week of rallies and banner drops outside the offices of the secretaries of state of California, Oregon, Colorado and Georgia.

    The groups also penned a letter to Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar last month, calling on him to block Trump under what’s known as the Insurrectionist Disqualification Clause.

    “We’re really focusing on Nevada and California and [Oregon, Colorado and Georgia] to make sure that they are taking a stand by disqualifying Trump in those spaces, which is something that the secretary of state can do,” said Héctor Sánchez, executive director of Mi Familia Vota.

    “Trump is responsible for the January 6th insurrection, plain and simple,” said Alexandra Flores-Quilty, campaign director for Free Speech For People. 

    “Failing to hold him responsible not only violates the Constitution, but it also sets a dangerous precedent for permitting violent attacks on our democracy. That’s not a risk we can afford to take.”

    Secretaries of state are charged with certifying eligibility of candidates and counting the votes in their state. Though Trump has been indicted twice and is under investigation in other cases, the groups say those are not disqualifying facts under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

    Nikki Haley Passes DeSantis in Latest New Hampshire Poll

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
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    5

    The Republican primary field is shifting…

    A new poll of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire showed former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley— not Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — running second in the first primary state.

    Haley beat DeSantis 19 percent to 10 percent in a Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA TODAY survey released on Wednesday morning.

    But they both remain far behind the frontrunner, Donald Trump. The former president leads his Republican rivals with 49 percent support in the poll of 500 likely GOP primary voters that was conducted after the second debate and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

    But Trump remains immovable atop the field. And no other candidate cracked double digits in the Suffolk/Globe/USA TODAY survey. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie notched 6 percent support, while entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott got roughly 4 percent apiece. Former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum trailed even further behind, with just 1 percent each.

    The poll comes days before GOP candidates will descend on New Hampshire next week, starting with the former president on Monday and most of the rest of the field at a weekend cattle call hosted by the state GOP.

    GOP Governor Signals Interest in 2024 White House Run

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
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    8
    Photo of Chris Sununu via Gage Skidmore Flckr

    New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu is leaving the door open as to if he will pursue a bid for the White House in 2024.

    In an interview with Fox News, Sununu, who won reelection in November, admitted that he’s been approached about a possible presidential campaign and is seriously considering the matter. However, the governor acknowledged there’s still plenty of time to make a decision to make final decision and he still discussing the matter.

    “It’s incredibly flattering,” Sununu said of the speculation that he could mount a presidential bid. “A lot of folks are coming to me, a lot of folks want me to run. It’s definitely conversations that we’re having, of course.”

    “My first priority is New Hampshire. It really is,” he added. “But again, we’ll keep having those conversations. There’s no time table for making decisions or where it all goes.”

    “I think people have to understand it is, what? Jan. 4 or 5, right? Of ‘23? So we still have well over a year before we even get to the first-in-the nation primary,” he said. “There’s going to be a lot of time before folks even get in the race.”

    The New Hampshire Governor acknowledged that other high-profile Republicans are considering their own presidential campaigns which could also impact his ultimate decision.

    “Who knows what might happen between now and then?” Sununu said. “And those unknown variables could really dictate who gets in the race and how successful they can be.”

    Early polling suggests that Trump and DeSantis are the two frontrunners for the 2024 nomination.

    Illinois Judge Removes Trump from Ballot

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
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    2
    Gavel via Wikimedia Commons Image

    Donald Trump has been removed from a third state’s ballot…

    On Wednesday, Cook County Circuit Judge Tracie Porter barred Trump from the Illinois ballot one month after the anti-Trump challenge was dismissed by the Illinois State Board of Elections. 

    According to court documents obtained by Fox News, the order urged the board to remove Trump or “cause any votes cast for him to be suppressed,” for violating section three of the 14th Amendment, or the “disqualification clause,” for engaging in insurrection.

    Porter’s ruling reverses last month’s decision by the Illinois Board of Elections to keep Trump’s name on the primary ballot after a group of Illinois voters accused the former president of engaging in insurrection. 

    However, the order is put on hold until Friday, in case of an appeal from Trump’s attorneys to the Illinois Appellate Court, First District or the Illinois Supreme Court. 

    A campaign spokesperson for Trump issued a statement to Reuters saying it “is an unconstitutional ruling that we will quickly appeal.”

    For the first time, the Supreme Court is considering the meaning and reach of Section 3 of the Constitution’s 14th Amendment, which bars former officeholders who “engaged in insurrection” from holding public office again.

    The 14th Amendment, Section 3 of the Constitution states, “No person shall… hold any office… under the United States… who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States… to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”

    GOP Governor Offers 5 Requirements to Serve as Trump’s VP

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
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    0

    Who will be Donald Trump’s running mate?

    South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, who is among the field of candidates being considered for the job, offered an idea of what Trump should look for.

    During an interview with Fox News host Lawrence Jones, Noem offered her perspective on the accomplishments, qualifications, and attitudes a vice president for Trump would need to bring to the office.

    “I’m all-in to do what I can to help the team. He needs somebody that actually is not part of the swamp, I think. He needs a business owner,” Noem said. “He needs somebody who’s been a commander-in-chief, somebody who makes decisions when things get tough.” 

    She added, “Those are his qualifications, and he needs to know he can have somebody around him that trusts him and he trusts and will fight.”

    “So, when he picks whoever it is a vice president, I’ll support whoever he picks, and I’m going to make sure that I’m someone who still continues to defend and fight for his policies,” the governor said.

    During a recent interview with Fox News host Laura Ingraham, Trump was asked about half a dozen potential running mate choices: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, multimillionaire biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida, and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, a Democrat turned independent.

    Trump revealed they are all being considered for VP.

    ‘Trump Was 100% Right Not To Debate:’ Don Jr. Slams Fox News’ ‘Un-American’ Decision

    By
    admin
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    2
    Photo via Gage Skidmore Flickr

    Donald Trump Jr. and his fiancée, Kimberly Guilfoyle, expressed their clear displeasure with Fox News Wednesday evening.

    In a video clip that’s since gone viral, observers can see the younger Trump at last night’s debate, castigating Fox News for its decision to restrict Trump surrogates trying to access the media spin room.

    Fox justified the decision by stating that since the former president declined to debate, his team was not allowed to enter the spin room. Trump publicly snubbed Fox by appearing on Tucker Carlson’s Twitter/X show instead of attending the debate.

    However, there was confusion about who could go backstage and how Trump allies might be permitted entry.

    The New York Post has more:

    “I’d been told by others that I would be able to go in,” Trump Jr. told reporters after a Fiserv Forum security guard turned him away. “Fox won’t let me into the spin room. They’re telling him, he works for security here, but they’re telling him that I’m not allowed to go in there.”

    “Because the candidates that they’ve been boosting while trying to cut down Trump for the last, what, two years didn’t perform as they had hoped,” he went on. “So they can’t have someone who can maybe be a representative of my father.”

    In political parlance, the “spin room” refers to the area where candidates and their surrogates gather after each debate to talk up their performance to the media while tearing down their rivals.

    …

    Fox News co-hosted the debate with the Republican National Committee, which set donor and polling requirements for the candidates and also asked each to sign a pledge to support the party’s eventual nominee.

    Besides Trump, Fox banned surrogates for candidates who didn’t qualify for the debate.

    Tim Scott Opens Presidential Exploratory Committee

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
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    1
    Michael Vadon, CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons

    Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., has taken the first step toward the race for the White House.

    The prominent Republican senator announced the news accompanied by a slickly produced video on Twitter earlier this morning.

    “On this day, April 12, 1861, in this harbor, the first shots of the Civil War were fired and our country faced the defining moment: Would we truly be one nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all. America’s soul was put to the test – and we prevailed,” Scott said at the top of the video.

    Scott vowed that he’d “never back down in defense of the conservative values that make America exceptional.”

    “That’s why I’m announcing my exploratory committee for President of the United States,” he added.

    As The Washington Times reports:

    The presidential exploratory committee allows Mr. Scott to raise funds for expenses such as polling or travel before making the leap into the race.

    He would square off against Mr. Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, the Republican who appointed him to his Senate in 2012 before he won a series of elections to remain a senator.

    Other Republicans, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, are expected to enter the race.

    Scott is on what he calls his “Faith in America” listening tour, which he said would help him decide whether to launch a presidential campaign. Word of the tour was first reported by Fox News earlier this year.

    New Poll Exposes Democrats’ True Thoughts About Biden

    By
    Norman Leahy
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    1
    Joe Biden via Gage Skidmore Flickr

    There’s a wealth of new polling data on the Democratic presidential nomination contest, with polls from The Wall Street Journal and Associated Press both finding that even Democratic voters are concerned that President Joe Biden is too old to run.

    The AP/NORC poll of adults (not registered voters) found that 77 percent of respondents believed Biden was too old to serve another term.

    And for the hardened Team Blue partisans who shout “ageism!” at such findings…69 percent of self-identified Democrats said Biden’s age is a big issue (among Republicans, it was a whopping 89 percent – which shouldn’t come as a surprise).

    But this must be a fluke, an outlier, and a one-off. Surely, the age issue can’t be that big a deal for Mr. Biden. Except The Wall Street Journal poll confirmed it is.

    The Journal asked a split question – one if voters think Biden’s mental fitness is sufficient for the job, the other specifically on whether he is “too old.”

    On the mental ability, 60 percent questioned Biden’s mental ability. On age, a total of 73 percent said he is “too old.”

    What are the comparable numbers for former President Donald Trump?

    A 49-46 split says Trump isn’t mentally up for the job. On age, another spilt, with 47 percent saying he’s too old and 45 saying he isn’t.

    As always with polls, the numbers are snapshots in time and subject to change.

    What these data points do, though, is reinforce narratives that have long been whispered in Democratic circles: Biden’s time has passed, and he would be wise to bow out and allow someone else to take the fight to what looks like Donald Trump in 2024.

    But such whispers against an incumbent are very hard to translate into hard reality. What could bring them a tad bit closer to the fore are the other items in the Journal poll, particularly the sense that most people think the economy has hit a rough patch, and they are feeling the effects:

    …58% of voters say the economy has gotten worse over the past two years, whereas only 28% say it has gotten better, and nearly three in four say inflation is headed in the wrong direction. Those views were echoed in the survey by large majorities of independents, a group that helped deliver Biden’s victory over Trump in the 2020 presidential race. Voters were almost evenly split on the direction of the job market.

    It’s not a wipeout for Biden, but the data are hardly comforting to an incumbent who has staked his presidency on a massive reworking of the economy, with government intervention and support leading the way. Team Blue partisans will say it’s early, these things take time, etc., etc. And they aren’t entirely wrong.

    But there’s also the iron law of politics to contend with: if you’re explaining, you’re losing. And until the data show voters are feeling better about their own particular economic situation, then Mr. Biden will need more than a slogan – “Bidenomics” – and promises of widespread prosperity to save his own political future.

    The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of Great America News Desk. It first appeared in American Liberty News. Republished with permission.

    Trump Responds to Threats Against Federal Law Enforcement

    By
    admin
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    3
    [Photo Credit: The White House from Washington, DC, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]

    Since the weekend, a number of officials and media personalities, including Fox News hosts, have called on former President Donald Trump to call for an “end to the violent rhetoric” expressed against the FBI. (RELATED: Gunman Killed After Trying to Enter FBI Building)

    On Monday morning’s episode of “Fox & Friends” co-host Steve Doocy said Trump, “a great supporter of law enforcement” should help tamp down on the rhetoric “against the FBI because the FBI was simply doing what the DOJ asked them to do.”

    Co-hosts Brian Kilmeade and Ainsley Earhardt called out the FBI, echoing the widely held belief about the Bureau’s current political biases, but they also condemned any violence and threats of violence with Earhardt saying “no one is for the violence of FBI agents.”

    Doocy in turn recommended that people frustrated by alleged hypocrisy between the treatment of Republicans and Democrats by federal law enforcement recognize that U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland was the man behind the Mar-a-Lago search warrant. (RELATED: Judge Unseals Mar-a-Lago Search Warrant – Trump Under Criminal Investigation)

    Hours after the “Fox & Friends” trio issued a call for cooler heads to prevail, former President Trump told Fox News’ Brooke Singman he “will do whatever” he can to “help the country” and bring the temperature down or “terrible things are going to happen.”

    The Daily Wire reports:

    “People are so angry at what is taking place,” Trump told Fox News Digital. “Whatever we can do to help—because the temperature has to be brought down in the country. If it isn’t, terrible things are going to happen.”

    Trump referenced the “years of fake witch hunts and phony Russia, Russia, Russia schemes and scams,” emphasizing that “nothing happens to those people who perpetuate that—nothing happens with them.”

    He added: “And then they break into a president’s house—a sneak attack where it was totally—no one ever thought a thing like this would happen.”

    Trump also said he told the DOJ he would do whatever he could to help. It is not immediately clear what kind of help Trump offered the DOJ, and the former president’s team did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    Before the DOJ’s warrant was unsealed, Trump used an intermediary to deliver a similar message to Attorney General Garland, saying according to a person with firsthand knowledge that “The country is on fire. What can I do to reduce the heat?”

    According to Business Insider, it’s unclear if the message ever reached Garland.

    The attempt to deliver the message preceded Garland’s Thursday press conference where he announced DOJ’s decision to unseal the search warrant. Trump had previously demanded the search warrant be released, even though he had a copy of it and the ability to do so himself.

    Around the same time as Garland’s speech, but hours before DOJ unsealed the records, Breitbart published a leaked version of the Mar-a-Lago search warrant — including the names of the FBI agents who signed their names on the property receipts.

    The version released by DOJ had all of the same information but redacted the agents’ names. The FBI is currently grappling with an “unprecedented” number of threats made against its agents.

    The identity of the leaker to Breitbart, a media outlet long managed by Steve Bannon, remains unknown. Breitbart was roundly criticized for its decision to doxx the agents.

    Hours later, Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social, sent a push alert to its members with the article that included the unredacted search warrant.

    A day later, police killed a man armed with an AR-15 and a nail gun who attempted to breach an FBI office in Cincinnati shortly after posting “Kill [the FBI] on sight” on Truth Social.

    The post has since been removed by moderators.

    READ NEXT: Trump Benefits From Announcing FBI Raid First: Politics, Media Experts >>

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