More and more Democrats are turning their backs on Joe Biden.
Ohio Democrat Senate candidate Tim Ryan doesn’t want Joe Biden to seek another term in the White House and he’s not afraid to say it. During a debate against Trump-endorsed opponent J.D. Vance, Ryan doubled down on his previous comments that senior leaders in politics need to step aside.
“I’ve been very clear. I’d like to see a generational change,” Ryan said at a Monday night debate for the Ohio Senate against Republican candidate J.D. Vance.
“Mitch McConnell, Donald Trump, the president, everybody,” the Senate candidate added. “We need a new generation of leadership.”
Biden has repeatedly affirmed his plans to run for another term as president despite his low approval ratings and more Democrats emerging to oppose the potential run.
A recent poll from ABC News and the Washington Post indicated that only 35% of Democrat-registered and Democrat-leaning independent respondents want Biden to seek reelection.
Ryan isn’t the first Democrat to publicly state his aversion to Biden’s political plans. Democrat Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin also said Sunday that Biden should bow out of the 2024 race.
“I have been very vocal, including with my own leadership in the House, that we need a new generation. We need new blood, period, across the Democratic Party — in the House, the Senate and the White House. I think that the country has been saying that,” Slotkin said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
“The environment politically across the country is poisonous, and people I think want some change,” Ryan said. “It’s important for us, in both parties, these leaders who have been around for a while, I think it’s time for some generational change.”
Election prognosticators with RealClearPolitics have labeled the Ohio Senate race as a GOP stronghold but the race has been competitive as Rep. Ryan has attempted to portray himself as a moderate Democrat.
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, who is among the field of candidates being considered for the job, offered an idea of what Trump should look for.
During an interview with Fox News host Lawrence Jones, Noem offered her perspective on the accomplishments, qualifications, and attitudes a vice president for Trump would need to bring to the office.
“I’m all-in to do what I can to help the team. He needs somebody that actually is not part of the swamp, I think. He needs a business owner,” Noem said. “He needs somebody who’s been a commander-in-chief, somebody who makes decisions when things get tough.”
She added, “Those are his qualifications, and he needs to know he can have somebody around him that trusts him and he trusts and will fight.”
“So, when he picks whoever it is a vice president, I’ll support whoever he picks, and I’m going to make sure that I’m someone who still continues to defend and fight for his policies,” the governor said.
During a recent interview with Fox News host Laura Ingraham, Trump was asked about half a dozen potential running mate choices: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, multimillionaire biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida, and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, a Democrat turned independent.
Trump revealed they are all being considered for VP.
A focus group of Black undecided voters in Georgia has raised concerns for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, revealing dissatisfaction with her leadership and the current state of the economy. According to feedback from the group, many believe the economy performed better under former President Donald Trump.
The focus group, conducted by James Johnson of J.L. Partners for The Daily Mail, highlighted skepticism about Harris’ leadership abilities, with voters labeling her as “weak” and inconsistent. Some notable comments from participants include:
“If you look at the statistics now, we’re far worse than we were before. Everything is worse now with Biden and Harris.”
“Even though Trump didn’t make all the right choices, the economy just worked better under him. I think it was the overall business mindset that helped.”
“She kept saying that she’s a warrior, but I don’t think she is.”
“If you put her next to Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton, it’s like there’s no comparison. They would eat her up.”
A new shock poll conducted by the NAACP last week showed that one in four black men under 50 say they’re going to back President Donald Trump.
Numbers like that should terrify Vice President Kamala Harris‘ campaign – especially as they eye black communities across the county that are critical to winning in 2024.
Cobb County, Georgia is one of those places.
NEW: Black undecided voters in Georgia by 7-to-1 margin think the economy was better under Donald Trump.
President Joe Biden carried Cobb in 2020 by almost ten percentage points.
These sentiments by the group reflect a potential challenge for Harris, particularly in Georgia, where the latest RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump leading by 1.7 points.
A+ Rated Poll Shows Biden Edging Out Trump – What Does This Mean for 2024?
Just days before the Republican National Convention kicks off, a newly released NPR/PBS News/Marist poll reveals that President Joe Biden is leading former President Donald Trump in a tight race among registered voters. The poll, conducted from July 9 to July 10, shows Biden ahead with 50% of the vote compared to Trump’s 48%, leaving 2% of voters undecided. This marks a slight shift from last month’s pre-debate poll, where both candidates were tied at 49%.
Key Findings:
Voter Concerns: By a margin of more than two to one, voters are more concerned with candidates who lie than with those who are too old to serve.
Mental Fitness: Despite Biden’s lead, nearly two-thirds of Americans question his mental fitness for the presidency. Respondents were evenly split regarding Trump’s mental acuity, suggesting concerns about both candidates.
Character Assessment: The poll highlights a stark contrast in public perception of character. A majority believe Biden is a man of integrity, while Trump is perceived as lacking the character required for the presidency.
Why Marist Polls Matter
Marist, known for its accuracy and methodological rigor, continues to be a trusted source in political polling. Their partnership with major media outlets and commitment to transparency and innovation ensure that their findings are both reliable and insightful.
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.
“This is an unpleasant rematch with two unpopular people,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, “but Biden gets points for honesty and character. As a result, there’s a lot of canceling out.”
Final Thoughts
Ultimately, poll numbers provide a snapshot of the current political climate. The only numbers that really matter will come in November.
That being said, who do you think will come out on top in the 2024 election? And does the latest poll change your opinion on the trajectory of the race for the White House?
The 2024 Pennsylvania Senate race is emerging as one of the most closely watched and pivotal contests in the nation, with significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Casey Jr. is seeking reelection for a fourth term, while Republicans are coalescing around David McCormick, a former hedge fund executive.
Both candidates are gearing up for what is expected to be one of the most expensive and competitive Senate races in the country…
Bob Casey Jr.: The Incumbent
Bob Casey Jr., son of the late Governor Bob Casey Sr., has served Pennsylvania in the Senate since 2006. Casey has built a reputation as a pragmatic legislator who prioritizes health care, jobs and labor rights.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
In the Senate, Casey has leveraged his seniority to secure key committee assignments, including on the influential Senate Finance Committee.
However, the political climate in Pennsylvania has become increasingly polarized in recent years, teeing up a more challenging electoral environment for the seasoned politician this year. With the Keystone State narrowly voting for Joe Biden in 2020 after flipping to Donald Trump in 2016, Republicans see this as an opportunity to unseat Casey.
David McCormick: The Challenger
David McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO and Army veteran, is a prominent figure in Pennsylvania politics and business. McCormick served as the CEO of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, from 2020 to 2022, where he gained a reputation for strong leadership in the financial sector. A West Point graduate, McCormick also served as an Army officer during the Gulf War, earning a Bronze Star for his service.
National Archives at College Park – Still Pictures, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
In public service, McCormick held senior economic positions in the George W. Bush administration, including Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs. His platform emphasizes economic growth, job creation and strengthening national security. McCormick is also focused on fiscal conservatism, advocating for reduced government spending and taxes.
McCormick previously ran for Senate in 2022, narrowly losing the Republican primary to Mehmet Oz, who ultimately lost to Democrat John Fetterman in the general election. Since then, McCormick has remained active in Pennsylvania politics, positioning himself as a fiscal conservative and critic of the Biden administration’s economic policies.
McCormick’s background in business and finance has appealed to Pennsylvania’s suburban voters, while his military service has resonated with the state’s sizable veteran population along with Donald Trump’s MAGA base.
Key Policy Issues
In his 2024 campaign, McCormick has focused on national security, economic freedom and his status as a business leader and political outsider, in stark contrast to Casey’s long tenure in Washington. This dynamic has brought the race to a near tie.
I retired from the Army as a captain after a combat tour in Iraq, but I've never stopped serving my country.
I'm a seventh-generation Pennsylvanian, political outsider, & PA job creator.
Bob Casey is a weak, liberal, 30-year career politician who has failed our commonwealth. pic.twitter.com/NnuK1F25Su
McCormick’s platform focuses on reducing government spending, boosting economic growth and opposing progressive policies that he argues have hurt the state’s energy sector, particularly coal and natural gas.
Fundraising and Campaign Spending
The Pennsylvania Senate race is expected to be one of the most expensive in the nation, with both candidates benefiting from substantial outside spending.
According to Federal Election Commission (FEC) data, Bob Casey has raised more than $21 million, thanks to strong support from labor unions, healthcare groups, and Democrat super PACs such as the Senate Majority PAC. Casey’s deep connections with national Democrats and his long-standing relationships with Pennsylvania’s organized labor groups have made him a fundraising powerhouse.
On the Republican side, David McCormick has raised over $17 million with significant support from national conservative groups such as Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity.
Endorsements and Support
Donald Trump: Former President Donald Trump officially endorsed McCormick’s Senate bid last April during a Pennsylvania rally.
“I am officially giving my endorsement to David McCormick tonight. He’s a good a man. He wants to run a good ship. He’s a smart guy, who was a very successful guy. He’s given up a lot to do this,” Trump told supporters at a rally in Schnecksville, Pennsylvania.
“I’ll tell you what: He’s the nominee of the Republican Party, David McCormick. Go out and vote for him because Casey doesn’t do a damn thing,” Trump said.
Pat Toomey: Former Senator Pat Toomey praised McCormick’s economic expertise and commitment to conservative values, saying he’s the right leader to represent Pennsylvania.
Ari Fleischer: The former White House Press Secretary endorsed McCormick at a September fundraiser, highlighting his strong leadership and policy experience.
Organizational Endorsements:
Senate Leadership Fund: Backed McCormick as part of their efforts to secure Republican Senate seats.
Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC): Endorsed McCormick for his unwavering support for Israel and stance against antisemitism.
“RJC trusts Dave McCormick – a 7th generation Pennsylvanian, West Point graduate, combat veteran, Bronze star recipient, Pennsylvania job creator and business leader – to be a Senator the people of Pennsylvania can be proud of.”
“Bob Casey is no friend of Israel. Where Bob Casey has failed, Dave McCormick will lead.”
Voter Sentiment and Polling
Recent polling data suggests that the race between Casey and McCormick is likely to be close, reflecting Pennsylvania’s status as a swing state. Polls indicate that Casey holds a slight lead over McCormick, but the race is expected to tighten as November draws closer. Pennsylvania has a history of closely contested statewide elections, with margins often decided by just a few percentage points.
RealClearPolitics (October 14, 2024): Casey leads McCormick 47.8% to 44.6%
Emerson College Poll (October 2024): 48% support incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Casey while 46% support Republican Dave McCormick.
Trafalgar Polling (October 2024): Casey leads McCormick 47.4% to 45.6% with 7% undecided.
Quinnipiac Univesity (October 2024): Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey leads Republican challenger David McCormick 51% to 43%. Democrats 96% to 3% back Casey, while Republicans 88 % to 10% back McCormick. Independents are evenly split, with 44% supporting McCormick and 44% supporting Casey.
Both candidates will need to appeal to Pennsylvania’s diverse electorate, which includes rural, suburban, and urban voters. Rural parts of the state have trended Republican in recent elections, while urban areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh remain Democratic strongholds. The key battleground will likely be the suburbs, particularly in counties like Bucks and Montgomery, where moderate and independent voters could swing the outcome.
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, greets U.S. President Donald J. Trump arrives at the North Dakota Air National Guard Base, Fargo, N.D., Sept. 7, 2018. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Senior Master Sgt. David H Lipp)
A relatively unknown Republican Governor has decided to enter the 2024 primary field in what appears to be an ever-growing group of competitors.
On Wednesday, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum became the most recent Republican to enter the race.
Burgum announced his candidacy in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal.
“We need a change in the White House. We need a new leader for a changing economy. That’s why I’m announcing my run for president today,” he wrote.
The economy must be our top priority. We need to get inflation under control, cut taxes, lower gas prices and reduce the cost of living.
We need to stop buying energy from our enemies and start selling it to our friends and allies. America produces the cleanest and safest energy in the world. Anyone who cares about the environment should want all energy produced here.
Finally, we must recognize the real threat to America and strengthen national security. Our enemies aren’t our neighbors down the street. Our enemies are countries that want to see our way of life destroyed. The first time I ever saw Great Plains’ software in China in 1989 it had been stolen and pirated to sell for a tiny fraction of our price. We must rebuild our military and re-establish our nation’s position of strength to win the cold war with China.
Burgum, who has served as the governor since 2016, announced his campaign during an event in Fargo.
Besides former President Trump, the Republican presidential nomination field includes Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina governor and former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, former two-term Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, multimillionaire entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and Michigan businessman Perry Johnson.
On Monday, former Vice President Mike Pence formally filed paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) ahead of his expected announcement on June 7.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who ran for the 2016 presidential nomination, also filed his paperwork with the FEC on Tuesday.
The White House from Washington, DC, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley seems to be readying herself for a White House run.
During an interview with Fox News, Haley said that she could be the next President of the United States and that she is seriously exploring the possibility.
'I CAN BE THAT LEADER': Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley hints at 2024 presidential run during exclusive interview with Bret Baier pic.twitter.com/KAa7qnjzgl
“When you’re looking at a run for president, you look at two things,” Haley told Fox News anchor Bret Baier. “You first look at, does the current situation push for new leadership? The second question is, am I that person that could be that new leader, that, yes, we need to go in a new direction? And can I be that leader? Yes, I think I can be that leader.”
“I was — as governor, I took on a hurting state with double-digit unemployment, and we made it the beast of the Southeast,” she said. “As ambassador, I took on the world when they tried to disrespect us. And I think I showed what I’m capable of at the United Nations.”
“So, do I think I could be that leader? Yes,” she added. “But we are still working through things, and we will figure it out. I have never lost a race. I said that then. I still say that now. I’m not going to lose now. But stay tuned.”
Haley’s comments come a year after the former South Carolina governor said that she would not launch her own presidential campaign if Donald Trump announces his candidacy.
“I would not run if President Trump ran,” Haley told reporters at the time.
However, despite Trump’s early entrance to the 2024 contest the former president has seen mixed responses.
Former President Donald Trump received a significant endorsement from the Border Patrol union during a campaign rally in Arizona, a crucial swing state. The endorsement could prove pivotal as immigration remains a top concern for voters.
The rally, held on Sunday, was marked by Trump’s promise to increase border security. He announced plans to hire 10,000 additional border agents, provide a 10% pay raise and introduce a $10,000 signing and retention bonus. “They deserve it,” Trump said, highlighting what he described as unfair treatment of agents.
BREAKING: Trump just announced that he will immediately ask Congress to approve a 10% raise for all border patrol agents and also implement a $10,000 retention/signing bonus to encourage more people to join
The Washington Times further reports on border security personnel throwing their support behind the only candidate they believe will secure the border:
Paul Perez, president of the union representing 16,000 Border Patrol agents, said the former president has been a true ally.
“America, I have a message for you: If we allow ‘Border Czar’ Harris to win this election, every city, every community in this great country is going to go to hell,” Mr. Perez said, lamenting that millions of unvetted migrants who have entered the country illegally under the Biden-Harris administration.
“Only one man can fix that. That is Donald J. Trump,” he said.
“He has always stood with the men and women who protect this border, who put their lives on the line for the country,” he said.
Illegal immigration has consistently ranked as a key issue, with a study in June revealing that half of the jobs created under President Biden’s economic policies went to undocumented workers rather than American citizens.
Trump’s endorsement by the Border Patrol union comes as Democrats face increasing pressure over their handling of the border crisis. Matt Corridoni, spokesperson for the Harris campaign, criticized the endorsement, pointing to what he called Trump’s broken promises. “Trump told us Mexico would pay for his failed border wall. That was a lie,” Corridoni stated, adding that Trump killed a bipartisan border bill that could have strengthened border security.
Corridoni also defended Vice President Kamala Harris’s record, stating, “There’s only one candidate focused on tackling issues for the American people, has taken on transnational gangs, and is focused on keeping our communities safe—Vice President Kamala Harris.”
Despite these efforts, Democrats have faced challenges in managing immigration. Harris, in her role as “border czar,” has been criticized for the influx of nearly 10 million undocumented migrants during her tenure. The situation worsened when Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas confirmed on Oct. 2 that DHS may not have sufficient funds to provide assistance through the end of the hurricane season, after spending $1 billion on immigration-related costs.
As Election Day rapidly approaches, immigration is likely to remain a central issue, with both parties vying for voters concerned about border security.
In a surprising turn of events, the presidential primary field has one less competitor… Tim Scott has officially dropped out of the race.
Scott made the announcement on Fox News’ “Sunday Night in America with Trey Gowdy,” the host himself a former Republican South Carolina congressman who wrote a book with Scott.
“I love America more today than I did on May 22nd, but when I go back to Iowa, it will not be as a presidential candidate. I am suspending my campaign,” Scott told Gowdy. “I think the voters who are the most remarkable people on the planet have been really clear that they’re telling me, Not now, Tim.”
Scott’s campaign sent a fundraising email just minutes before he made his announcement giving donors what it called “one last chance to donate this weekend and help Tim reach his campaign goal.”
Scott launched his candidacy in May 2022 and was the second South Carolinian after former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley to run for the White House on the Republican side.
Scott’s decision came a few days after the third Republican debate.
Tim Scott strikes me as a good dude. I gave @SenatorTimScott a congratulatory 👊 on stage when the other South Carolinian shamelessly copied *exactly* what he said. Wishing Tim all the best back in the U.S. Senate. I’m hopeful we can convince him that more Ukraine aid is an awful… pic.twitter.com/jZ6uzLoX47
Scott’s decision to drop out of the race leaves the question of who the South Carolina Senator will ultimately choose to endorse in the race as other candidates are openly vying for his support.
“The best way for me to be helpful is to not weigh in,” he said when asked who he will support.
Tim Scott is a good man of faith and an inspiration to so many.
The Republican primary was made better by his participation in it.
South Carolina is blessed to continue to have him as our senator.
Tim Scott is a strong conservative with bold ideas about how to get our country back on track. I respect his courage to run this campaign and thank him for his service to America and the U.S. Senate.
I look forward to Tim continuing to be a leader in our party for years to come.
Polling expert Nate Silver is predicting Donald Trump finds himself back in the White House.
Silver was acclaimed in 2012 for correctly picking the winner of every state between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney and confidently forecasting an Obama victory. He was bullish on Hillary Clinton in 2016 but cautioned Trump had a reasonable chance.
“The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden),” Silver, who formerly ran polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight, wrote in his “Silver Bulletin” substack.
Silver’s forecast model, based on 40,000 simulations, found Trump had a 65.7% of winning the electoral college, compared to Biden, who had a 33.7% chance. However, Biden is slightly favored to win the popular vote. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the presidency with a slew of narrow swing state wins.
“If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 1 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied,” Silver wrote.
The data expert wrote that there was still time for Biden to turn things around and suggested the president give the nomination to Vice President Harris or someone else at the Democratic convention. However, he wrote, “Disclaimer: that also might be a terrible idea.”`
