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    Nate Silver’s Forecast: Harris Now Favored Over Trump In 2024 Election

    By
    Patrick Houck
    -
    3
    Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

    In a significant shift, Vice President Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump in the latest 2024 election forecast from data expert Nate Silver. According to Silver’s “Silver Bulletin” election model, Harris currently holds a 58% likelihood of winning the presidency, compared to Trump’s 42%.

    This marks a reversal from early September, when Trump had over a 60% chance of victory. Silver attributes the shift to changes in polling data. He noted that Harris has gained a 3-point lead nationally and has been performing well in key battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina.

    The exception is Arizona, where Harris has struggled in recent polling, but Silver noted it has only a 5% chance of being the tipping-point state.

    While Silver still categorizes the race as a toss-up, he suggested that Harris’s hand appears stronger. He also pointed to positive economic revisions, which he said have bolstered Harris’s chances.

    Silver explained that Harris has two viable paths to securing the Electoral College, whereas Trump’s options appear more limited. Harris could win the presidency even if she loses all the toss-up states, provided she secures Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

    Mediaite has further details on Harris’ “Plan A” and “Plan B” pathways to victory:

    Silver’s latest write-up of his forecast notes that Harris, unlike Trump, has two solid routes to winning the Electoral College. Harris can lose all the toss-up states while winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and still become president.

    Silver calls this “Plan A” – the long talked about “blue wall” that crumbled in 2016 for Hillary Clinton. Silver explains that Harris also has a “Plan B” if one of those states falls – despite her polling up in all three. Harris can win “North Carolin, Georgia, or both” in order to still get to 270 – especially as she’s in striking position in Nevada and ahead in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

    Trump, on the other hand, must win all of the toss-up states and at least one of the three “blue wall’ states.

    As recently as a few weeks ago, Silver’s model had Trump leading Harris in betting odds. However, recent developments have reshaped the landscape as the 2024 election approaches.

    Silver’s full analysis is available by clicking here.

    With early voting now underway, we have to know: Are YOU still with us? Please submit your responses below before the Early Voting Cutoff to complete the 2024 Voter Verification Questionnaire!

    Incensed Mika Brzezinski Slams Trump – Says He Endangers Women’s Lives

    By
    Patrick Houck
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    5
    US Department of Labor, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

    MSNBC’s Morning Joe co-host Mika Brzezinski delivered a strong rebuke against former President Donald Trump during Thursday’s broadcast, accusing him of endangering women’s health and expressing frustration with those who question recent reports critical of Trump.

    Brzezinski argued that Trump’s actions have serious implications for women, specifically regarding reproductive health. “He is putting our reproductive health at risk, and some women have already died because of this,” Brzezinski stated, emphasizing the potential dangers she believes his policies pose. “I’m talking about us women. He’s killing us. He is making us afraid to have babies.”

    Her comments also extended to those who question the veracity of recent reporting, including a so-called “October surprise” from The Atlantic that criticize Trump. “These headlines and very good reporting, by the way, shouldn’t be questioned by idiots about what Trump has said about Hitler. That’s incredibly important to know,” she added.

    Of course, Brzezinski did not mention that Trump was the first U.S. president to formally recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. On Dec. 6, 2017, he announced this recognition, marking a significant shift in U.S. policy. Previous presidents had avoided this move, keeping the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv to placate Palestinian opposition.

    Critics argue that Brzezinski’s diatribe implies Democrats are losing and that their only option now is to scare the public into voting for Kamala Harris.

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    Tim Scott Ends 2024 Presidential Campaign

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
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    1
    Michael Vadon, CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons

    In a surprising turn of events, the presidential primary field has one less competitor… Tim Scott has officially dropped out of the race.

    Scott made the announcement on Fox News’ “Sunday Night in America with Trey Gowdy,” the host himself a former Republican South Carolina congressman who wrote a book with Scott.

    “I love America more today than I did on May 22nd, but when I go back to Iowa, it will not be as a presidential candidate. I am suspending my campaign,” Scott told Gowdy. “I think the voters who are the most remarkable people on the planet have been really clear that they’re telling me, Not now, Tim.”

    Scott’s campaign sent a fundraising email just minutes before he made his announcement giving donors what it called “one last chance to donate this weekend and help Tim reach his campaign goal.”

    Scott launched his candidacy in May 2022 and was the second South Carolinian after former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley to run for the White House on the Republican side. 

    Scott’s decision came a few days after the third Republican debate.

    Scott’s decision to drop out of the race leaves the question of who the South Carolina Senator will ultimately choose to endorse in the race as other candidates are openly vying for his support.

    “The best way for me to be helpful is to not weigh in,” he said when asked who he will support.

    Scott also gave a thumbs down to the idea that he could serve as the nominee’s running mate on the Republican Party’s 2024 national ticket.

    “Being vice president has never been on my to-do list,” he said.

    Who will be the next candidate to call it quits? Let us know what you think in the comments below!

    Is Vivek Ramaswamy The GOP’s New Trump ‘Lite’?

    By
    Paul Crespo
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    13
    Vivek Ramaswamy speaking with attendees at the 2022 AmericaFest at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix, Arizona.

    ANALYSIS- Who is this skinny guy with the funny-sounding name? (That was his opening line at the debate). Vivek Ramaswamy wasn’t supposed to be at the center of the first Republican presidential candidate debate in Milwaukee.

    Ron DeSantis was supposed to be the viable GOP alternative to Donald Trump. A two-term governor of the third most populous state in the union, DeSantis, a Navy veteran who served in Iraq, is as conservative as they come.

    And he has a proven track record of fighting the left in Florida – and winning.

    But despite his solid bona fides and resume, DeSantis has a personality problem. He just doesn’t exude charm or confidence, and that’s hurting him – a lot.

    Meanwhile, Ramaswamy the 38-year-old Trump-defending, Cincinnati-born, biotech billionaire (worth at least $950 million), son of Pakistani immigrants, kind of stole the show at the debate.

    According to former FBI agent and body language expert, Joe Navarro: “[Ramaswamy] consistently looked the most comfortable on stage.”

    He was also the most openly and unabashedly pro-Trump. He was the first candidate to raise their hand when asked who would support the former President as the party nominee even if he is convicted on felony charges that he’s facing.

    He has also promised to pardon Trump if elected. But he went even farther than that.

    “President Trump, I believe, was the best president of the 21st century,” Ramaswamy said in a clip from the debate Trump posted on Truth Social.

    And Trump loved it.

    “This answer gave Vivek Ramaswamy a big WIN in the debate because of a thing called TRUTH. Thank you, Vivek!”

    The ever-smiling political newbie Ramaswamy, who seemed to be having a blast on stage, was also the target of many of his GOP rivals.

    As TIME reported:

    Maybe it was Ramaswamy’s consistent and confounding defense of All Things Trump. Maybe it was his smooth talk and culture-war acumen. Maybe it was just the fact that Ramaswamy frankly does not care how things were done before and might just have enough self-made money to go the distance.

    Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie snarled that he had “had enough already tonight of a guy who sounds like ChatGPT,” an A.I. battery. He then dismissed Ramaswamy as someone on the same level as a political figure universally loathed in the GOP. “The last person in one of these debates… who stood in the middle of the stage and said, ‘What is a skinny guy with an odd last name doing up here?’ was Barack Obama. And I am afraid we are dealing with the same type of amateur standing on the stage tonight,” Christie said.

    But the quick witted Ramaswamy’s riposte to Christie was a zinger: “Give me a hug like you did to Obama, and you’ll help elect me just like you did to Obama. Give me the damn hug, brother.”

    Ramaswamy was referring to the 2012 incident when Christie was accused of “hugging” Obama during his visit in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy which hit days before the 2012 presidential election.

    It’s a claim that Christie has been denying since then, saying: “I didn’t hug him.”

    Photos at the time seem to back up Christie, but the zinger still worked.

    Former U.S. Ambassador to the UN under Trump, and ex-South Carolina governor, Nikki Haley, who is of Indian descent, hit Ramaswamy too: “You have no foreign policy experience, and it shows.”

    I would agree with that assessment and believe he has made a few deeply flawed important national security statements – including on Ukraine and Israel.

    But he is super smart and can learn quickly.

    Then Vice President Mike Pence took a Christie-like jab at Ramaswamy, attacking the very same quality that originally helped raise Trump in the GOP base – that he is not a politician.

    “Now it’s not the time for on-the-job training,” retorted Pence. “We don’t need to bring in a rookie. We don’t need to bring in people with no experience.”

    AS TIME noted: “Attacks during debates are the norm but this was different. Ramaswamy’s competitors really don’t like him. Not even a little.”

    However, there is one important GOP rival who seems to like Ramaswamy – Donald Trump. And that could be all that matters.

    Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

    Trump’s Ex-Wife Nominates Herself For VP

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
    -
    5

    A shocking turn of events…

    Former President Donald Trump’s ex-wife, Marla Maples, recently said she was open to being his running mate during an interview

    “I’m open. I’m open to whatever way that I can serve,” Maples said in an interview with the U.K. publication, The Evening Standard, released Monday.

    “Right now everyone [in the Trump family] is just seeing how we can help,” she said when asked about potentially being the 45th president’s VP pick.

    Maples, who has largely stayed out of politics during Trump’s first term, says she’s not longer afraid of the consequences and is ready to “step out more.”

    “I’ve never been a fan of politics. I see how it can separate and divide us,” Maples told The Evening Standard.

    “At the same time, I found myself in the throes of it,” the “Dancing With the Stars” alum said.

    Maples and Trump were married from 1993 to 1999 and are parents to daughter Tiffany Trump. 

    But now, Maples said, “I’m ready. I am available if needed and I’m not sitting back anymore.”

     “I want to step out more, share more and not be afraid of positive or negative outcomes that come from speaking out,” she said. 

    Despite Maples’ throwing her hat into the ring, Trump is more likely to choose a running mate with more firsthand political experience.

    According to a report from The New York Post, Donald Trump is now seriously considering two candidates to become his running mate: Ohio Senator J.D. Vance and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. Florida Senator Marco Rubio is also reportedly being considered.

    One source close to Trump gave a slight edge to Burgum being the 45th president’s running mate, saying the North Dakotan had a 50-50 chance of being selected and Vance had a 30% chance, with Rubio and the field each having a 10% percent chance.

    A different source close to the Trump campaign said the choice was “gonna be JD, Marco or Burgum” and that they didn’t “see a scenario where one of those three doesn’t end up getting it.”

    “I would give Burgum and JD a little more of an edge than Marco,” the source added, handicapping that “Marco still has a shot” and that “Burgum and JD have an equal shot.”

    “JD because that’s who Don Jr. and Trump’s inner orbit seem to be pushing for,” this person said. “Donors [are] pushing Burgum for stability.”

    It’s unclear exactly when Trump will officially announce his choice for vice president but speculation is building around his upcoming rally in Pennsylvania and the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

    Pennsylvania Supreme Court Weighs In On Mail-In Voter Debate

    By
    Patrick Houck
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    1

    In a pivotal decision on Wednesday, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that voters whose mail-in ballots were rejected due to errors—including missing signatures, incorrect dates or absence of a required secrecy envelope—can still cast their vote on Election Day. The 4-3 decision ensures that these individuals are allowed to submit provisional ballots at their local polling places, provided no additional disqualifying issues arise.

    The ruling originated from a case in Butler County, where two voters were denied the opportunity to vote provisionally after their mail-in ballots were rejected during the April primary for missing secrecy envelopes. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Pennsylvania and the Public Interest Law Center represented the voters, arguing that the county had misinterpreted the state’s Election Code.

    Per Spotlight PA:

    Justice Christine Donohue, writing for the majority, noted that the Republican litigants argued that in order to maintain election integrity, provisional ballots should not be counted, but said the majority was “at a loss to identify what honest voting principle is violated by recognizing the validity of one ballot cast by one voter.”

    “If appellants presume that the general assembly intended to disqualify the provisional ballot of a voter who failed to effectively vote by mail in order to punish that voter, we caution that such a construction is not reconcilable with the right of franchise,” she wrote.

    The American Civil Liberties Union of Pennsylvania and the Public Interest Law Center, which brought the case on behalf of two voters, celebrated the ruling as a victory.

    “Today’s decision affirms that if you make a paperwork mistake that will keep your mail ballot from counting, you have the right to vote by provisional ballot at your polling place on Election Day,” said Ben Geffen, senior attorney at the Public Interest Law Center. “This reinforces the right to vote in Pennsylvania.”

    This decision holds broad implications for voters across Pennsylvania, offering a contentious solution for those facing similar issues in future elections. However, there was notable dissent, including from Justice P. Kevin Brobson, who contended that the state’s Election Code explicitly prohibits counting such provisional ballots.

    The ruling comes as Pennsylvania takes center stage in the 2024 election. Polls suggest a highly competitive race, with the latest RealClearPolitics average showing former President Donald Trump holding a slight 0.6-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris.

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    Report: DeSantis To Launch Presidential Campaign Wednesday

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
    -
    4

    Things are about to get interesting…

    Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is reportedly planning to announce his entrance to the 2024 Republican presidential primary on Wednesday.

    Sources familiar confirmed to Fox News that the popular, conservative two-term governor will declare that he’s a candidate for president, on Wednesday at 6 p.m. ET during a conversation with Elon Musk on Twitter.

    Along with his announcement, DeSantis is expected to file paperwork with the Federal Election Commission, which officially launches his GOP presidential campaign.

    A formal campaign kickoff event will likely take place sometime after this week’s donor gathering, but no details have been shared by the campaign.

    DeSantis joins a growing primary field. Earlier this week Sen. Tim Scott (S.C) announced his bid for the White House. Former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, tech mogul Vivek Ramaswamy, and former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson have also jumped into the race.

    Former president Donald Trump has consistently commanded polls since announcing his third presidential campaign.

    This is a breaking news story. Click refresh for the latest updates.

    Nikki Haley Passes DeSantis in Latest New Hampshire Poll

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
    -
    5

    The Republican primary field is shifting…

    A new poll of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire showed former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley— not Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — running second in the first primary state.

    Haley beat DeSantis 19 percent to 10 percent in a Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA TODAY survey released on Wednesday morning.

    But they both remain far behind the frontrunner, Donald Trump. The former president leads his Republican rivals with 49 percent support in the poll of 500 likely GOP primary voters that was conducted after the second debate and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

    But Trump remains immovable atop the field. And no other candidate cracked double digits in the Suffolk/Globe/USA TODAY survey. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie notched 6 percent support, while entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott got roughly 4 percent apiece. Former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum trailed even further behind, with just 1 percent each.

    The poll comes days before GOP candidates will descend on New Hampshire next week, starting with the former president on Monday and most of the rest of the field at a weekend cattle call hosted by the state GOP.

    Biden Wins Debate Coin Toss, Trump To Deliver Closing Remarks

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
    -
    2
    CNN Headquarters via Wikimedia Commons

    One more week…

    The first presidential debate is nearly here and the details are being finalized.

    On Thursday, CNN announced former President Trump will have the final word in next week’s first presidential debate after Joe Biden won the coin toss.

    The Biden campaign won the coin toss, selecting tails, and choosing to pick the president’s standing position instead of reserving a speaking slot. Biden will stand on the right side of the stage from the viewer’s perspective, and Trump on the left.

    Trump’s campaign decided to select to speak last, meaning Biden would be the first to give his closing argument.

    Biden and Trump will be the only two candidates on the debate stage next Thursday night in Atlanta, CNN announced. Anchors Dana Bash and Jake Tapper have been selected as the moderators. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not qualify for the debate stage

    It’s the first of two debates agreed to by the candidates and will feature a number of new rules.

    CNN said there will be two commercial breaks during the debate, and candidates will not be allowed to consult with other members of their campaign during that time.

    The network also noted that candidates’ podiums and positions will be determined by a coin flip, their mics will be muted outside of speaking time, and they will only be provided with a pen, a notepad and a bottle of water.

    There will be no opening statements. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will each have two minutes to answer questions — followed by one-minute rebuttals and responses to the rebuttals. Red lights visible to the candidates will flash when they have five seconds left, and turn solid red when time has expired. And each man’s microphone will be muted when it is not his turn to speak.

    Candidates will not be allowed to bring props or prepared notes.

    Additionally, for the first time in recent history, the debate between presidential contenders won’t have a studio audience.

    Report: Trump to Skip First Debate to Participate in Rival Event with Tucker Carlson

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
    -
    7
    Tucker Carlson via Gage Skidmore Flickr

    Former President Donald Trump has reportedly finalized his plans to skip the first Republican presidential debate and instead participate in an event with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

     The New York Times reported the news noting the former president has spent the last several days soliciting feedback from aides and allies on whether to participate in the debate.

    When The Hill contacted for comment on the reported agreement between Trump and Carlson, an aide for the former president said his campaign “hadn’t confirmed anything on our end” and cautioned against “getting too far ahead” as it relates to the former president’s plans.

    Trump, the front-runner for the GOP nomination, has for weeks signaled a hesitation to participate in the Aug. 23 debate, which is being hosted by the Republican National Committee and will be broadcast on Fox News.

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