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Pennsylvania’s 2024 Senate Race Heats Up – A Must-Win For Republicans

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The 2024 Pennsylvania Senate race is emerging as one of the most closely watched and pivotal contests in the nation, with significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Casey Jr. is seeking reelection for a fourth term, while Republicans are coalescing around David McCormick, a former hedge fund executive.

Both candidates are gearing up for what is expected to be one of the most expensive and competitive Senate races in the country…

Bob Casey Jr.: The Incumbent

Bob Casey Jr., son of the late Governor Bob Casey Sr., has served Pennsylvania in the Senate since 2006. Casey has built a reputation as a pragmatic legislator who prioritizes health care, jobs and labor rights.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

In the Senate, Casey has leveraged his seniority to secure key committee assignments, including on the influential Senate Finance Committee.

However, the political climate in Pennsylvania has become increasingly polarized in recent years, teeing up a more challenging electoral environment for the seasoned politician this year. With the Keystone State narrowly voting for Joe Biden in 2020 after flipping to Donald Trump in 2016, Republicans see this as an opportunity to unseat Casey.

David McCormick: The Challenger

David McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO and Army veteran, is a prominent figure in Pennsylvania politics and business. McCormick served as the CEO of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, from 2020 to 2022, where he gained a reputation for strong leadership in the financial sector. A West Point graduate, McCormick also served as an Army officer during the Gulf War, earning a Bronze Star for his service.

National Archives at College Park – Still Pictures, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

In public service, McCormick held senior economic positions in the George W. Bush administration, including Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs. His platform emphasizes economic growth, job creation and strengthening national security. McCormick is also focused on fiscal conservatism, advocating for reduced government spending and taxes.

McCormick previously ran for Senate in 2022, narrowly losing the Republican primary to Mehmet Oz, who ultimately lost to Democrat John Fetterman in the general election. Since then, McCormick has remained active in Pennsylvania politics, positioning himself as a fiscal conservative and critic of the Biden administration’s economic policies.

McCormick’s background in business and finance has appealed to Pennsylvania’s suburban voters, while his military service has resonated with the state’s sizable veteran population along with Donald Trump’s MAGA base.

Key Policy Issues

In his 2024 campaign, McCormick has focused on national security, economic freedom and his status as a business leader and political outsider, in stark contrast to Casey’s long tenure in Washington. This dynamic has brought the race to a near tie.

McCormick’s platform focuses on reducing government spending, boosting economic growth and opposing progressive policies that he argues have hurt the state’s energy sector, particularly coal and natural gas.

Fundraising and Campaign Spending

The Pennsylvania Senate race is expected to be one of the most expensive in the nation, with both candidates benefiting from substantial outside spending.

According to Federal Election Commission (FEC) data, Bob Casey has raised more than $21 million, thanks to strong support from labor unions, healthcare groups, and Democrat super PACs such as the Senate Majority PAC. Casey’s deep connections with national Democrats and his long-standing relationships with Pennsylvania’s organized labor groups have made him a fundraising powerhouse.

On the Republican side, David McCormick has raised over $17 million with significant support from national conservative groups such as Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity.

Endorsements and Support

Donald Trump: Former President Donald Trump officially endorsed McCormick’s Senate bid last April during a Pennsylvania rally.

“I am officially giving my endorsement to David McCormick tonight. He’s a good a man. He wants to run a good ship. He’s a smart guy, who was a very successful guy. He’s given up a lot to do this,” Trump told supporters at a rally in Schnecksville, Pennsylvania.

“I’ll tell you what: He’s the nominee of the Republican Party, David McCormick. Go out and vote for him because Casey doesn’t do a damn thing,” Trump said.

Pat Toomey: Former Senator Pat Toomey praised McCormick’s economic expertise and commitment to conservative values, saying he’s the right leader to represent Pennsylvania.

Ari Fleischer: The former White House Press Secretary endorsed McCormick at a September fundraiser, highlighting his strong leadership and policy experience.

Organizational Endorsements:

Senate Leadership Fund: Backed McCormick as part of their efforts to secure Republican Senate seats.

Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC): Endorsed McCormick for his unwavering support for Israel and stance against antisemitism​.

“RJC trusts Dave McCormick – a 7th generation Pennsylvanian, West Point graduate, combat veteran, Bronze star recipient, Pennsylvania job creator and business leader – to be a Senator the people of Pennsylvania can be proud of.”

“Bob Casey is no friend of Israel. Where Bob Casey has failed, Dave McCormick will lead.”

Voter Sentiment and Polling

Recent polling data suggests that the race between Casey and McCormick is likely to be close, reflecting Pennsylvania’s status as a swing state. Polls indicate that Casey holds a slight lead over McCormick, but the race is expected to tighten as November draws closer. Pennsylvania has a history of closely contested statewide elections, with margins often decided by just a few percentage points.

RealClearPolitics (October 14, 2024): Casey leads McCormick 47.8% to 44.6%​

Emerson College Poll (October 2024): 48% support incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Casey while 46% support Republican Dave McCormick.

Trafalgar Polling (October 2024): Casey leads McCormick 47.4% to 45.6% with 7% undecided.

Quinnipiac Univesity (October 2024): Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey leads Republican challenger David McCormick 51% to 43%. Democrats 96% to 3% back Casey, while Republicans 88 % to 10% back McCormick. Independents are evenly split, with 44% supporting McCormick and 44% supporting Casey.

Both candidates will need to appeal to Pennsylvania’s diverse electorate, which includes rural, suburban, and urban voters. Rural parts of the state have trended Republican in recent elections, while urban areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh remain Democratic strongholds. The key battleground will likely be the suburbs, particularly in counties like Bucks and Montgomery, where moderate and independent voters could swing the outcome.

No Labels Votes To Go Forward With Independent Presidential Ticket

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The political group No Labels has voted to move forward with its plan to enter the 2024 presidential race.

On Friday, hundreds of state delegates reportedly convened for a private meeting to approve the organization’s plan to push an independent ticket.

The Hill reports:

“Earlier today, I led a discussion with the 800 No Labels delegates from all 50 states. These citizen leaders have spent months discussing with one another the kind of leadership they want to see in the White House in 2024,” No Labels National Convention Chair Mike Rawlings wrote in a statement.

“They voted near unanimously to continue our 2024 project and to move immediately to identify candidates to serve on the Unity presidential ticket. Every one of our delegates had their own explanation for wanting to move ahead,” he added.

“Now that No Labels has received the go ahead from our delegates, we’ll be accelerating our candidate outreach and announcing the process for how candidates will be selected for the Unity Ticket on Thursday, March 14,” he added.

No Labels leaders have asserted that voters are extremely dissatisfied with Biden and Trump, setting up a case for a third-party candidacy. 

The group has indicated they are open to both Democrats and Republicans and would ideally serve as a “unity” option for dissatisfied voters.

Long-Shot Candidate Drops Out Of Race, Endorses Trump

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Gage Skidmore Flickr

A long-shot presidential candidate has suspended his campaign and endorsed former President Donald Trump to become the Republican nominee.

On Tuesday, Texas pastor Ryan Binkley announced his decision to end his campaign.

“Today, I am suspending my campaign for the Presidency of the United States of America and offering my endorsement and unwavering support for President Trump,” Binkley wrote on X. 

“When I began this journey, it was with a message in my heart that our country needs to awaken to the fact that the unsustainable deficit spending and debt path we are on will undoubtedly lead us to a generational economic disruption,” he continued. “I believe that we can get off that path and begin a journey to balance the federal budget by transforming and demonopolizing the healthcare system which has been bankrupting our nation. I also felt deeply that as bad as the U.S. fiscal and monetary policy is, the political corruption and cultural divide in our country is an even greater threat. Throughout my campaign, I have seen our party struggle to find a place for a new vision while weighing the corrupt allegations and indictments against President Trump. He will need everyone’s support, and he will have mine moving forward.” 

Binkley, the co-founder and current CEO/president of Generational Equity Group, a merger and acquisitions business advisory in Texas, announced his bid in April of last year.

“Currently our nation is lost, divided, and in financial trouble. Here’s the good news: united, we can rise to change it as we restore our faith in God, freedom, and each other,” Binkley’s website said.

According to Fox News, Binkley’s campaign platform focused on issues like immigration reform and border controls, boosting the economy, privatizing healthcare, utilizing cheap energy sources like nuclear energy, and supporting pro-life policies.

Hillary Clinton Thinks Kamala Harris Lacks ‘Political Instincts’ to Win Primary

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(Los Angeles - EUA, 09/06/2022) Presidente da República Jair Bolsonaro, durante Sessão Plenária de Abertura da IX Cúpula das Américas..Foto: Alan Santos/PR

Nobody can stand Kamala Harris, even her own party.

According to a New York Times report, former Secretary of State and 2016 presidential nominee Hillary Clinton doesn’t think the vice president has what it takes to survive a presidential primary

“Members of Congress, Democratic strategists and other major party figures all said she [Harris] had not made herself into a formidable leader,” a Monday article from The New York Times read.

“Two Democrats recalled private conversations in which former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lamented that Ms. Harris could not win because she does not have the political instincts to clear a primary field,” the Times reported.

Nick Merrill, a Clinton spokesman pointed to their “strong bond,” but the Times didn’t quote him issuing a specific denial of Clinton’s reported private thoughts of the VP.

“They have built and maintained a strong bond. Any other characterization is patently false,” Merrill said on Clinton’s behalf.

He also claimed the two held discussions focused on their separate experiences of being “a woman in power” and, according to the Times, reiterated that Clinton remains “strongly supportive” of her.

The Times article noted that many Democrats close to the first female vice president have been disappointed by her inability to establish her own political legacy outside of being as many “firsts” – the first African-American, Asian-American and woman to serve as vice president in U.S. history. 

“Even some Democrats whom her own advisers referred reporters to for supportive quotes confided privately that they had lost hope in her,” the article stated.

Harris has faced intense criticism since being elected, largely for her lack of action at the U.S.-Mexico border despite being charged with the mission at the start of the Biden administration. RealClearPolitics reports the vice president’s approval rating is also underwater at 51.8 percent.

Report: Chris Christie Nears White House Announcement

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Maryland GovPics, CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons

Is Donald Trump about to see one of his most aggressive critics join the Republican primary circle?

Reports indicate former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has taken a significant step towards announcing his 2024 White House campaign after his allies established a political action committee (PAC) to support his bid.

The PAC, called Tell It Like It Is, is the latest sign that Christie plans to throw his hat in the ring in the Republican presidential primary race, the New York Times initially reported.

Fox News reports:

The former governor has already made selections for a potential presidential campaign staff as well, according to the New York Times. Mike DuHaime and Maria Comella are poised to manage his campaign if he announces, the outlet reported. Duhaime previously worked as a political strategist during Christie’s 2016 campaign, and Comella previously worked as chief of staff to disgraced former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

Meanwhile Brian Jones, a longtime staffer for GOP campaigns, will head up the PAC.

Earlier this month, Christie indicated he planned to jump into the race by hitting at both frontrunners Trump and President Biden.

“I’m very concerned that what we’re heading toward is a Trump-Biden rematch,” said in a radio interview. “A Trump-Biden rematch is bad for the Republican Party.”

“We lost the House in 2018. The Senate and the White House in 2020. We underperformed in 2022 and lost more governorships and another Senate seat. Donald Trump cannot win,” he continued.

Christie would enter a growing field of Republican 2024 candidates, including Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis; former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley; Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.

Former Vice President Mike Pence is also expected to launch a bid for the White House in the coming weeks.

Trump Names Running Mate For 2024

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Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

And officially becomes the nominee…

J.D. Vance, known for his memoir “Hillbilly Elegy,” which explores his upbringing in a poor Rust Belt town and his family’s struggles with addiction and poverty, experienced a swift rise in the political arena. His rise saw him win election to the United States Senate in 2022 and now has put him on the cusp of becoming the next vice president of the United States.

Driven by a compelling personal narrative, strategic alliances and the right political positioning, Vance has won the long-awaited veepstakes, as former President Donald Trump himself announced moments ago. Shortly afterward, it was announced at the Republican National Convention that Donald Trump had received enough votes to officially become the Republican presidential nominee.

Fittingly, it was the Florida delegation that put him over the top.

Vance’s story began in Middletown, Ohio, where he was raised in a working-class family. Despite the challenges he faced, he managed to graduate from Ohio State University and later from Yale Law School. His memoir, published in 2016, became a bestseller and brought him national attention, especially as it was seen as offering insights into the lives of many working-class Americans who felt left behind by the political establishment.

Key Factors in His Political Rise

  1. National Recognition through “Hillbilly Elegy”: Vance’s memoir provided him with a platform to discuss broader socio-economic issues affecting the Rust Belt and working-class communities. His personal success story resonated with many Americans, giving him credibility and a wide audience.
  2. Strategic Political Alliances: Vance capitalized on his newfound fame by forging key alliances within the Republican Party. He aligned himself with prominent figures and organizations that supported his views on economic and social issues. Notably, he gained the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, which significantly bolstered his political profile among the Republican base.
  3. Media Presence and Advocacy: Vance became a regular commentator on political and cultural issues, frequently appearing on news programs and writing op-eds. His articulate defense of conservative values and critique of elite political classes garnered him a loyal following.
  4. Focus on Populist Themes: Emphasizing themes of economic nationalism, skepticism of globalism and advocacy for working-class Americans, Vance tapped into the populist sentiment that had been growing within the Republican Party. His ability to articulate these issues in a relatable manner helped him connect with a broad spectrum of voters.
  5. Support from Influential Donors: Vance received significant financial backing from influential donors and political action committees. This support enabled him to mount a strong campaign for the U.S. Senate, leveraging his network and resources to reach a wider audience.

Political Campaign and Senate Victory

In 2022, Vance announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat in Ohio. His campaign focused on addressing the economic concerns of Ohioans, tackling the opioid crisis and advocating for policies that would benefit the working class. His message resonated with voters, and he successfully secured the Republican nomination and won the general election.

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Democratic-Leaning Pollster Shows Trump Leading Harris Nationally

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Gage Skidmore Flickr

A new national poll by Quinnipiac reveals a close and highly competitive race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. According to the poll, conducted between Sept. 19-22, Trump leads Harris by 1%, securing 48% of likely voters’ support compared to Harris’ 47%. (The previous August poll showed a different story, with Harris leading by 2%.)

Quinnipiac is a well-known polling institution that gained attention during the 2020 election cycle when it predicted an 11-point victory for President Biden – though the final margin was just 4.5 percentage points.

Polling Details at a Glance:

  • Sample Size: 1,728 likely voters
  • Dates: Sept. 19-22
  • Previous Poll Results: Harris up by 2% in August
  • Current Poll Results: Trump 48%, Harris 47%

Voter Demographics: A Deeper Look

Both Trump and Harris show strong support within their own parties, but Trump edges out Harris slightly among independent voters, with 47% compared to Harris’ 44%. Notably, Trump also holds a 14-point advantage with male voters, while Harris leads by 12 points among women.

When looking at age demographics, Harris performs best among older voters (65+), where she has an 8-point lead. She also wins the youngest voters (18-34), but only by 3%. Trump, on the other hand, captures the majority of voters in the 35-64 age group.

Key Findings on Racial and Ethnic Voters

A crucial factor in this tight race is the support from racial and ethnic groups:

  • Black Americans overwhelmingly support Harris, with 83% expressing their preference for the Democratic candidate.
  • Hispanic voters, however, tilt toward Trump, with 52% supporting him compared to 44% for Harris.

As The Hill reports:

Nearly two-thirds of likely voters, 64 percent, said they would like a second debate between the White House contenders. Around 31 percent of respondents thought otherwise. Last week, Harris accepted an invitation for a second showdown from CNN. Trump said during his campaign event in North Carolina that it’s “too late to do another” debate. 

Another new poll, conducted by CNN and SSRS, found a similar split among likely voters. In the national poll, also released Tuesday, Harris received 48 percent support, while Trump got 47 percent. 

Harris currently has a near-4 percent lead over Trump in the latest The Hill/Decision Desk HQ aggregate of polls. The vice president stands at 50.4 percent. The ex-president is at 46.5 percent.

The bottom line? The race is still too close to call with 41 days left until Election Day.

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NYT’s Maggie Haberman Reveals Trump’s Next Potential Running Mate

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New York Times reporter and avid Trump critic Maggie Haberman revealed to “The View” panel who former President Trump is considering to be his next running mate and has reportedly narrowed the pool of candidates down to two lawmakers.

While promoting her upcoming book on the 45th President of the United States, Haberman admitted Trump is laser-focused on Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and his potential to torpedo Trump’s chances of winning the Party’s nomination with his own presidential campaign.

Trump is “focused on Ron DeSantis in a way he isn’t on anybody else,” Haberman said, according to Mediaite.

“There are a couple of people whose names get mentioned,” Haberman answered, “and the one ho gets mentioned the most by people close to him is Tim Scott from South Carolina, the senator. And then Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who is possibly the next governor of Arkansas.”

The mention of Trump’s former White House press secretary drew very audible groaning from Whoopi Goldberg, others at the table, and the audience.

“I didn’t mean to cause that. I’m sorry,” Haberman said, to which, Goldberg replied “it just came up out of my system.”

Trump Proposes Punishment For ABC After Debate

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Gage Skidmore Flickr

Trump wants answers…

Former President Trump is suggesting ABC News be punished for what he is calling a “hostile performance” by the network’s debate moderators on Tuesday evening.

“ABC took a big hit last night,” Trump said Wednesday morning during an appearance on “Fox and Friends.”

“I mean, to be honest, they’re a news organization. They have to be licensed to do it. They ought to take away their license for the way they did that.”

Watch:

The Federal Communications Commission does not license major broadcast networks such as ABC, but does license some local stations.

After Tuesday’s debate, which pundits on both sides say went unexpectedly poorly for Trump, the former president argued the event was “three on one,” and has not accepted Harris’s challenge to meet for a second event.

Trump Ally Says GOP Firebrand is Gunning for Trump VP Slot

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Marjorie Taylor Greene -Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, via Wikimedia Commons

Georgia Republican firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene is aiming high.

According to former White House strategist Stephen Bannon, the Georgia lawmaker is angling herself to potentially be selected as Donald Trump’s choice for Vice President in what is his third pursuit of the White House.

“This is no shrinking violet, she’s ambitious — she’s not shy about that, nor should she be. … She sees herself on the short list for Trump’s VP,” Bannon told NBC News

When Greene “looks in the mirror, she sees a potential president smiling back,” Bannon added. 

An unnamed source in the NBC News piece concurred that Greene’s “whole vision” is to snag the second-in-command slot on Trump’s ticket.  

The source noted Rep. Greene’s recent efforts to rebrand herself as a politician who has the ability to “stand astride the divide between the party’s hard-liners and its establishment wing” is definitely part of a larger goal.

Recently, MTG threw herself into the middle of the contentious battle to elect a new Speaker of the House. Bannon told NBC that Rep. Greene’s support of Kevin McCarthy was a calculated risk.

“She’s both strategic and disciplined — she made a power move, knowing it would run up hard against her most ardent crew,” he said. “She was prepared to take the intense heat/hatred short-term for the long-term goal of being a player.”

Rep. Greene has made a name for herself in Congress as a far-right firebrand and staunch supporter of the former President. The Republican lawmaker endorsed Trump even before his official 2024 launch.

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