President Donald Trump is already the man to beat for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize — at least according to one major European bookmaker.
U.K.-based William Hill has installed Trump as the early favorite, giving him 3/1 odds to take home the prestigious award — despite the fact that the secretive Nobel Committee hasn’t even confirmed its list of nominees yet.
The betting giant says Trump was “overlooked” in 2025 — when the prize instead went to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado — but believes this year could be different.
“Trump is the leading contender,” said spokesperson Lee Phelps, putting his chances at roughly 25%.
That’s actually a dip from late last year, when oddsmakers were even more bullish on Trump’s chances — but he still tops the field.
From ‘Snub’ to Front-Runner
Trump allies were vocal last year after Machado took the prize for her fight for democracy in Venezuela.
Many supporters argued Trump deserved recognition for his foreign policy moves during his second term — including efforts to broker peace in global conflicts.
Adding fuel to that argument: Machado herself later honored Trump in a highly symbolic gesture, presenting him with her Nobel medal at the White House as a sign of gratitude for his role in Venezuela’s political shift.
(While the Nobel Committee made clear the award itself can’t be transferred, the moment still sent a powerful message.)
Trump Makes His Case
Trump hasn’t exactly been shy about his ambitions.
The president has repeatedly said he deserves the Nobel, pointing to what he claims are multiple ended conflicts and major breakthroughs on the world stage.
“I should have gotten it four or five times,” he’s said in the past — a line that continues to resonate with his supporters.
What Happens Next?
As always, the Nobel process remains tightly under wraps. Hundreds of candidates are nominated each year by lawmakers, academics, and past winners — but the official shortlist is never made public.
The winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced in October.
Until then, Trump sits in a familiar position: at the center of global attention — and, this time, at the top of the odds board.
