A new national poll by Quinnipiac reveals a close and highly competitive race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. According to the poll, conducted between Sept. 19-22, Trump leads Harris by 1%, securing 48% of likely voters’ support compared to Harris’ 47%. (The previous August poll showed a different story, with Harris leading by 2%.)
Quinnipiac is a well-known polling institution that gained attention during the 2020 election cycle when it predicted an 11-point victory for President Biden – though the final margin was just 4.5 percentage points.
Polling Details at a Glance:
- Sample Size: 1,728 likely voters
- Dates: Sept. 19-22
- Previous Poll Results: Harris up by 2% in August
- Current Poll Results: Trump 48%, Harris 47%
Voter Demographics: A Deeper Look
Both Trump and Harris show strong support within their own parties, but Trump edges out Harris slightly among independent voters, with 47% compared to Harris’ 44%. Notably, Trump also holds a 14-point advantage with male voters, while Harris leads by 12 points among women.
When looking at age demographics, Harris performs best among older voters (65+), where she has an 8-point lead. She also wins the youngest voters (18-34), but only by 3%. Trump, on the other hand, captures the majority of voters in the 35-64 age group.
Key Findings on Racial and Ethnic Voters
A crucial factor in this tight race is the support from racial and ethnic groups:
- Black Americans overwhelmingly support Harris, with 83% expressing their preference for the Democratic candidate.
- Hispanic voters, however, tilt toward Trump, with 52% supporting him compared to 44% for Harris.
As The Hill reports:
Nearly two-thirds of likely voters, 64 percent, said they would like a second debate between the White House contenders. Around 31 percent of respondents thought otherwise. Last week, Harris accepted an invitation for a second showdown from CNN. Trump said during his campaign event in North Carolina that it’s “too late to do another” debate.
Another new poll, conducted by CNN and SSRS, found a similar split among likely voters. In the national poll, also released Tuesday, Harris received 48 percent support, while Trump got 47 percent.
Harris currently has a near-4 percent lead over Trump in the latest The Hill/Decision Desk HQ aggregate of polls. The vice president stands at 50.4 percent. The ex-president is at 46.5 percent.
The bottom line? The race is still too close to call with 41 days left until Election Day.
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Even “Reputable” polls such as Quippniac ALWAYS have about a 5-7% inherent error built into them in favor of Democrats, so always subtract 5-7% from the numbers given for Dem politicians. Trump has an overwhelming lead and is sure to be elected if the election is not successfully rigged and if the Dem assassination attempts continue to fail.
IF viable Victory