In a significant shift, Vice President Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump in the latest 2024 election forecast from data expert Nate Silver. According to Silver’s “Silver Bulletin” election model, Harris currently holds a 58% likelihood of winning the presidency, compared to Trump’s 42%.
This marks a reversal from early September, when Trump had over a 60% chance of victory. Silver attributes the shift to changes in polling data. He noted that Harris has gained a 3-point lead nationally and has been performing well in key battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina.
The exception is Arizona, where Harris has struggled in recent polling, but Silver noted it has only a 5% chance of being the tipping-point state.
While Silver still categorizes the race as a toss-up, he suggested that Harris’s hand appears stronger. He also pointed to positive economic revisions, which he said have bolstered Harris’s chances.
Silver explained that Harris has two viable paths to securing the Electoral College, whereas Trump’s options appear more limited. Harris could win the presidency even if she loses all the toss-up states, provided she secures Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Mediaite has further details on Harris’ “Plan A” and “Plan B” pathways to victory:
Silver’s latest write-up of his forecast notes that Harris, unlike Trump, has two solid routes to winning the Electoral College. Harris can lose all the toss-up states while winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and still become president.
Silver calls this “Plan A” – the long talked about “blue wall” that crumbled in 2016 for Hillary Clinton. Silver explains that Harris also has a “Plan B” if one of those states falls – despite her polling up in all three. Harris can win “North Carolin, Georgia, or both” in order to still get to 270 – especially as she’s in striking position in Nevada and ahead in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
Trump, on the other hand, must win all of the toss-up states and at least one of the three “blue wall’ states.
As recently as a few weeks ago, Silver’s model had Trump leading Harris in betting odds. However, recent developments have reshaped the landscape as the 2024 election approaches.
Silver’s full analysis is available by clicking here.
