Home 2024 Polling Expert Gives Candidate 66% Chance Of Winning Election

Polling Expert Gives Candidate 66% Chance Of Winning Election


Bad news for Biden…

Polling expert Nate Silver is predicting Donald Trump finds himself back in the White House.

Silver was acclaimed in 2012 for correctly picking the winner of every state between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney and confidently forecasting an Obama victory. He was bullish on Hillary Clinton in 2016 but cautioned Trump had a reasonable chance.

“The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden),” Silver, who formerly ran polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight, wrote in his “Silver Bulletin” substack

Silver’s forecast model, based on 40,000 simulations, found Trump had a 65.7% of winning the electoral college, compared to Biden, who had a 33.7% chance. However, Biden is slightly favored to win the popular vote. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the presidency with a slew of narrow swing state wins.

“If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 1 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied,” Silver wrote.

The data expert wrote that there was still time for Biden to turn things around and suggested the president give the nomination to Vice President Harris or someone else at the Democratic convention. However, he wrote, “Disclaimer: that also might be a terrible idea.”`


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