On Sunday, Republican Rep. Michael McCaul (Texas) announced he will not seek another term.

McCaul, 63, has represented Texas’ 10th Congressional District, which spans from the Houston suburbs to Austin, since 2005. He also chaired the House Homeland Security and House Foreign Affairs Committees from January 2013 to January 2019 and from January 2023 to January of this year, respectively. 

“It’s been an honor to serve for over two decades in the Congress,” McCaul told Martha Raddatz on ABC News’ This Week. “I’m looking now for a new challenge. I’m going to serve the remainder of my term. But I’m looking for a new challenge in the same space that would be national security, foreign policy, but just in a different realm.”

McCaul was elected to the House for the first time in 2004. He went on to be re-elected to his seat 10 times, with his narrowest victory occurring in 2018, when he garnered 51.1 percent of the vote to Democratic candidate Mike Siegel’s 46.8 percent. 

McCaul did not specify what his next steps would be after his term ends. 

“It has been the honor of a lifetime to represent the people of central Texas and to chair the prestigious Homeland Security and Foreign Affairs Committees,” McCaul said in a post on X. “My father’s service in World War II inspired me to pursue a life of public service, with a focus on defending our great nation against global threats, and I have been proud to carry out that mission in Congress for more than two decades.”

A fair number of House Republicans have announced they will not run again (or retire early) heading into the 2026 elections. For example, Rep. Mark Green (R-TN) recently announced an early retirement, stepping down after the passage of a major budget/tax bill and citing a private sector opportunity.

In some cases, Republicans are leaving not because they want to retire entirely but because they are running for other offices (governor or Senate) or want to vacate for private sector roles. According to Ballotpedia, as of mid-2025, there are thirteen Republicans in the U.S. House who announced they will not seek re-election in 2026.

On the Democratic side, there are also retirements (or folks not seeking re-election) but somewhat fewer, or in less vulnerable districts. For example, Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) has announced he will not seek re-election. Some retirements are strategic for Democrats as well, but the key point is that many open seats will be up for grabs, and Republicans appear to be making more moves in this space.

The GOP has a narrow majority in the House now, so even a small number of seat losses could flip control. That means each retirement — especially in competitive or swing districts — matters a lot. Analysts are pointing out that Democrats will challenge many of those open seats, and that Republicans will need to defend not just incumbents but maintain strength in districts where GOP retirements create open seats.

To preserve control, Republicans will likely lean on a few advantages: favorable redistricting in some states, maintaining strong turnout in rural and suburban areas, and messaging that emphasizes border security, inflation, or other issues where GOP polling tends to do well. But there are headwinds: historically, the party in control of the White House tends to lose seats in midterms, public dissatisfaction with national issues could tilt momentum the other way, and some of the retirements are in districts where Democrats showed strength already.

Given all that, Republican control of the House is not guaranteed but is plausible — if the party runs good campaigns, holds together its coalition, and defends seats well, especially in light of several vulnerable open seats caused by retirements. If you like, I can pull up a list of those Republican districts most at risk and what the forecasts are showing.