A+ Rated Poll Shows Biden Edging Out Trump – What Does This Mean for 2024?
Just days before the Republican National Convention kicks off, a newly released NPR/PBS News/Marist poll reveals that President Joe Biden is leading former President Donald Trump in a tight race among registered voters. The poll, conducted from July 9 to July 10, shows Biden ahead with 50% of the vote compared to Trump’s 48%, leaving 2% of voters undecided. This marks a slight shift from last month’s pre-debate poll, where both candidates were tied at 49%.
Key Findings:
- Voter Concerns: By a margin of more than two to one, voters are more concerned with candidates who lie than with those who are too old to serve.
- Mental Fitness: Despite Biden’s lead, nearly two-thirds of Americans question his mental fitness for the presidency. Respondents were evenly split regarding Trump’s mental acuity, suggesting concerns about both candidates.
- Character Assessment: The poll highlights a stark contrast in public perception of character. A majority believe Biden is a man of integrity, while Trump is perceived as lacking the character required for the presidency.
Why Marist Polls Matter
Marist, known for its accuracy and methodological rigor, continues to be a trusted source in political polling. Their partnership with major media outlets and commitment to transparency and innovation ensure that their findings are both reliable and insightful.
NPR has additional information on the findings:
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.
“This is an unpleasant rematch with two unpopular people,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, “but Biden gets points for honesty and character. As a result, there’s a lot of canceling out.”
Final Thoughts
Ultimately, poll numbers provide a snapshot of the current political climate. The only numbers that really matter will come in November.
That being said, who do you think will come out on top in the 2024 election? And does the latest poll change your opinion on the trajectory of the race for the White House?
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National polls mean NOTHING. We elect the president state by state through the Electoral College. Democrats have a YUGE built in advantage due to overkill in Californicate, which is far greater than the states electoral power. No need to panic, IF we can get a fair vote count in battleground states.