The Cook Political Report, widely respected across the political spectrum for its precise election forecasts, recently adjusted its presidential race ratings in six key states, all favoring former President Donald Trump.
The shift comes amidst a backdrop of national and state polls indicating a modest yet consistent increase in support for Trump over President Joe Biden.
Key State Changes
The Cook Political Report has reclassified:
- Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from “toss-up” to “lean Republican.”
- Minnesota and New Hampshire from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”
- Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”
Nebraska and Maine are the only states that allocate their electoral votes by congressional district, making the competitive Omaha-based 2nd District a target for both campaigns.
Electoral Vote Implications
The changes significantly impact the electoral map, with Trump now leading in states totaling 268 electoral votes, just two votes short of the required 270 for victory. In contrast, Biden leads in states accounting for 226 electoral votes.
Expert Analysis
In a social media post, Dave Wasserman, a senior editor at Cook Political Report, argued that it was overly optimistic to label the presidential race as a toss-up even before the debates.
“Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes,” Wasserman noted.
Additionally, during an appearance on CNN, Amy Walter, Cook Report’s publisher and editor-in-chief, elaborated on the political shifts underpinning these changes.
“What we’re seeing is the real erosion of support from Biden among voters of color,” Walter explained back in May. “This is the reason he [Biden] is doing worse in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, where Hispanic and African Americans make up a significant share of the vote.” [emphasis added]
Polling Data
Supporting these insights, the latest RealClearPolitics national polling average shows Trump leading Biden by 3 percentage points. In crucial swing states, Trump’s lead is even more pronounced:
- Arizona: +5.4 points
- Georgia: +4 points
- Michigan: +0.6 points
- Nevada: +5.2 points
- North Carolina: +5.8 points
- Pennsylvania: +5.3 points
- Wisconsin: +2.2 points
Conclusion
The latest adjustments by the Cook Political Report highlight a rapidly shifting landscape in the 2024 presidential race. With Trump’s increasing traction in key states and growing concerns about Biden’s ability to simply do the job, the GOP’s path to the presidency appears more wide open than ever.
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