Home Foreign Affairs Report: Trump Advisor Warns ‘90% Chance’ Strike On Iran Is Coming

Report: Trump Advisor Warns ‘90% Chance’ Strike On Iran Is Coming

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President Donald Trump gestures to the crowd after delivering remarks at the House GOP Member Retreat, Tuesday, January 6, 2026, at the Donald J. Trump- John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

A senior adviser to President Donald Trump is warning that U.S. military action against Iran may be imminent as diplomatic efforts appear to be faltering.

One senior adviser told Axios reporter Barak Ravid on Monday that there is a “90% chance” the United States could launch strikes within weeks.

“The boss is getting fed up. Some people around him warn him against going to war with Iran, but I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks,” the adviser said.

The comments come amid heightened tensions following three-hour talks in Geneva between Trump advisers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Both sides publicly stated that discussions “made progress,” though significant differences remain.

Vice President JD Vance echoed that assessment, signaling that while diplomacy has not collapsed, it may be nearing its limits.

Negotiations “went well” in some ways, Vance said, but “in other ways it was very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through.” He cautioned that diplomacy could soon have “reached its natural end.”

The administration has consistently maintained that Iran will not be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon, a position widely supported by Republican lawmakers and national security hawks. Trump has repeatedly emphasized that Tehran must meet strict conditions or face serious consequences.

At the same time, U.S. military deployments in the region have accelerated. Two aircraft carriers, dozens of warships, and hundreds of fighter jets are being positioned across the Middle East. More than 150 cargo flights have reportedly delivered weapons systems and ammunition to support forces in the region.

According to Axios, a potential strike on Iran would likely unfold as a sustained and coordinated U.S.-Israeli effort. Sources familiar with planning discussions indicated that any operation would not be limited to nuclear facilities but could also target key regime assets.

While the president has continued to leave the door open to a negotiated solution, senior officials suggest patience is rapidly wearing thin.

On Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the two sides reached a “general agreement on a number of guiding principles” and agreed to begin drafting text for a possible agreement during a meeting between the two countries, with plans to exchange drafts and schedule a third round of talks. 

“Good progress was made compared to the previous meeting,” he said, adding that while drafting would slow the process, “at least the path has started.”

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