Trump hater’s favorite narrative just went out the window.
A recent New York Times/ Siena poll revealed what Americans view as the primary threat to democracy and to liberals’ dismay it’s not former President Donald Trump. Among the voters who expressed that concern over the state of democracy, more agreed the media was a threat than agreed on any other source individually, including President Joe Biden, ex-president Donald Trump, Republicans as a party, Democrats as a party, or even just the federal government generically.
Among registered voters and likely voters, 59% see the mainstream media as a major threat and 24% as a minor threat. That beats Trump, Biden, the Supreme Court, and the other answers.
Screenshot from New York Times/ Siena poll.
Screenshot from New York Times/Siena poll.
The poll is devastating news for Democrats who have desperately tried to weaponize Trump during this year’s midterms in hopes of maintaining their control in Congress.
Aaron Blake argued in his Washington Post analysis that Democrats have failed to “make 2022 about the threat to democracy.” Essentially, Blake argues that the Democrats have been ineffective, especially in individual races across the country, at convincing voters about the threat to the very Democratic process posed by the GOP at large — a key talking point among Democratic leaders and pundits, and echoed daily by the mainstream press.
In the abstract it’s true that the noted intent among Democratic leadership to get that message across seems unrealized. But the argument that Democrats failed to make the election “about the threat to democracy” could be slightly off-point.
It might be more accurate to say that Democrats and the media have indeed made the election in large part about the threat to democracy. They just didn’t anticipate where voters will think that threat is originating.
Tech. Sgt. Samuel King Jr., Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Despite a series of scandals, Herschel Walker is still a favorite among voters.
A new poll reports that while Latino voters are undecided on their choice for governor, they overwhelmingly support Republican candidate Herschel Walker over incumbent Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Georgia News Collaborative poll puts Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams at 49% and incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp at 48% among likely Hispanic voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points. Walker’s lead over Warnock is greater, 47% to 41%, with Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver pulling in 11% of the vote.
Georgia shattered early voting records on Monday, with nearly 123,000 in-person voters casting their ballots, according to state election officials.
“This blows away the previous midterm first-day record of approximately 72,000, and we have lots of voting to go today,” Gabriel Sterling, the chief operating officer at the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office, tweeted Monday.
Republicans and Democrats have been making inroads with Hispanic voters over the years.
ANALYSIS – With just three weeks to go until the U.S. midterm elections, a New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters finds the Republican party is gaining momentum national over the Democrats as concerns over the economy, inflation, illegal immigration, and crime, grow among voters.
When the the Times sounds the alarm, even in an understated way, expect things to be far worse for the Democrats than reported.
But when the Times “Chief Political Analyst” resorts to breaking down the numbers in the most comical and petty way, to lessen the impact on Dems, expect a red wave.
According to this poll, 49% of likely voters plan to vote for a Republican to represent them in Congress on November 8, compared with 45% who plan to vote for a Democrat.
That’s a four-point lead, versus a one-point lead Democrats reportedly had over Republicans just last month, making the total swing in voter preference in just a few months five points.
That’s a significant shift.
Rising inflation and declining stocks are making the economy the number one concern for voters, who believe Republicans are better equipped to deal with these concerns.
And this could mean that not only will the GOP most certainly win back the House but may gain control of the Senate too.
As the New York Times writes:
… [that’s a] notable swing from last month, when Democrats led by one percentage point among likely voters. Since then, the warning signs for Democrats have begun to add up, including Republican polling gains in key Senate races like those in Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and surprising Republican strength in districts in Rhode Island and Oregon where Democrats would normally be safe.
The Times explains that this isn’t a one-off poll:
It adds, as I have predicted it would since the Roe vs Wade reversal:
The evidence for a shift toward Republicans appears to be underpinned by a change in the national political environment. Gas prices went up again. The stock market is down. A variety of data suggests that the electorate’s attention is shifting back to issues where Republicans are on stronger ground in public opinion, like the economy, inflation, crime and immigration, and away from the summer’s focus on democracy, gun violence and abortion, where Democrats have an edge.
In other words, the conditions that helped Democrats gain over the summer no longer seem to be in place.
But America’s “paper of record” can’t help itself so it desperately still tries to spin the narrative in a less damaging light for the Dems.
So, Nate Cohn, The Times’ chief political analyst, formerly with liberal New Republic, then goes on to laughably diminish the GOP four-point advantage into “only” a three-point advantage due to “rounding” of the poll result numbers.
He further goes on to spend a great deal of time discussing the intricacies of polling, and how imperfect polling is.
Something that I totally agree with.
However, this level of inane wonkery to diminish polls showing one party’s advantage nationally is something I’ve never seen in over 30 years of politics.
Meanwhile, many experts point out that the biggest error in polling in today’s political environment is how undercounted conservative Republicans are in the polls.
This was highlighted in a recent Washington Post piece that used Ohio as an example:
A look at the Marist poll’s fine print suggested something that should make Democrats nervous in the run-up to Nov. 8: Pollsters might be seriously undercounting the Republican electorate — specifically, the working-class White voters who were crucial to Trump’s electoral success.
What caught my attention in the poll’s details was the information that 45 percent of respondents had a college degree. A check of the most recent census data indicates that in Ohio, only about 29 percent of the adult population has a bachelor’s degree or higher.
The writer, Mark Weaver, an election law attorney, and communications consultant,adds something I have discussed before – that conservative Republicans and Trump voters have been cowed into silence, but they still vote.
He notes:
This isn’t just about a single poll or a single state. I regularly talk with pollsters and campaigns, and I hear a common lament: Trump voters distrust pollsters and the media that reports on poll results, and simply won’t participate, out of protest or paranoia.
He continues discussing undercounted ‘shy’ or ‘submerged Trump voters’:
Trump supporters might have the added worry of being attacked for frankly stating their views. Stories of those affiliated with Trump being arrested, subpoenaed, doxed or mocked — with Trump providing angry amplification — result in a lower social trust of strangers inquiring about political views.
So, if the the Times “Chief Political Analyst” wanted to be a real polling wonk, perhaps he should ask why the polls have been so wrong about Republicans recently.
And instead of doing intellectual summersaults to diminish a four-point GOP lead, admit the GOP lead is probably MUCH, MUCH, greater.
Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.
President Joe Biden knows he doesn’t have the charisma, intellect, or command to win over the American people so he’s resorted to trying to buy us off.
Kari Lake speaking with supporters at a "Stand for Freedom" rally at the Embassy Suites by Hilton Scottsdale Resort in Scottsdale, Arizona. [Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons]
ANALYSIS – The polls are showing a national GOP rally which again points to a potential ‘Red Tsunami’ in November.
This means that the GOP will almost certainly be retaking control of the House, and may even narrowly win back the Senate, effectively making Joe Biden even more of a ‘lame duck’ than he already is.
But as encouraging and critical as this is, what is frightening Democrats the most may be the governor’s race in Arizona.
And they should be afraid. Very afraid.
There, ‘ultra MAGA’ Kari Lake is neck-and-neck in the polls for Governor against Democrat Katie Hobbs.
Many experts have concluded that almost all pollsters undercount conservative Republican voters, often because they have simply ‘opted out’ of the process until the election.
So, when the polls show races are close, this likely means the Republicans are ahead.
And this means Kari Lake, a smooth and charismatic former local TV news host, and novice politician backed strongly by Donald Trump, could very well win the state’s gubernatorial race.
As Dems see it, this means that the 53-year-old Lake, who left journalism and the media in 2021, and has questioned the 2020 election results, could ‘threaten Arizona’s 2024 election processes.’
They also see her as a potential Trump vice presidential candidate or even a post-Trump presidential candidate.
As Axios reports, key Democrat strategists are clearly panicked by Lake:
David Plouffe, the architect of Barack Obama’s 2008 victory, told Axios that Lake looks like a “plausible presidential candidate.”
David Axelrod, another key former Obama adviser, offered this assessment of Lake’s 20+ years in Arizona local TV before her entrance last year into politics: “If you get a candidate who has the performance skills of a major-market local TV anchor and the philosophy and thinking of Steve Bannon, that’s a potent and dangerous combination. … Look at Italy.”
…Former senior Hillary Clinton adviser Karen Finney said Lake represents “a more polished version” of MAGA.
Meanwhile, Lake isn’t just a MAGA candidate, she has been embraced by the GOP establishment, with all the powerful benefits that this brings.
Doug Ducey, Arizona’s outgoing GOP governor and chair of the Republican Governors Association, opposed Lake in her primary. But now, he’s backing her with great energy.
Lake has also charmed Arizona GOP donors, including members of the state’s political establishment…
In private meetings and on calls with donors, RGA officials have made clear they are prepared to spend aggressively to get Lake across the finish line. “Voters have a clear choice and we’re confident they’ll make Kari Lake their next governor…”
Bottom line:If Lake wins the governorship of Arizona, expect her to be the next big rising MAGA star. She may also be Trump’s 2024 VP, and/or even a top contender for 2028 GOP presidential candidate.
“Ultra MAGA” Kari Lake may be the GOP woman to watch in November.
Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.
With only three weeks left until Election Day Democrats are officially in panic mode. The latest polling data shows that Republicans are set up to win big this year.
Former Vice president Mike Pence has announced his support for a Republican Congressman who voted to impeach former President Trump over his alleged role in the 2021 Jan. 6th riot.
California Republican David Valadao, who voted to impeach Trump along with nine other House Republicans represents the 21st Congressional District and is running against Democratic challenger Rudy Salas for control over the newly drawn 22nd Congressional District.
Pence is set to headline a campaign fundraiser for Valadao in Fresno, California according to The Washington Examiner.
The former vice president has been outspoken against several Trump-backed candidates, particularly those who continue to deny the results of the 2020 election, such as Arizona’s GOP candidate for governor, Kari Lake. Pence had supported candidate Karrin Taylor Robson, whom Lake beat in the primary. He said in July that Lake wanted to make the 2022 election about the past.
“So, let me say, when you get out and vote for Karrin Taylor Robson and this Republican team, you can say yes to a future of freedom for Arizona,” he said that month.
On Sept. 14, Arizona Republican secretary of state candidate Mark Finchem accused Pence of attempting to organize a “coup” against Trump after Pence certified the 2020 election results. Finchem will compete against Democratic nominee Adrian Fontes in November. If he loses, he vowed not to concede.
Pence has been speculated as an early contender for the 2024 presidency but the former Vice President has reaffirmed his sole focus is helping Republicans succeed in this year’s midterms. However, his travels to high-profile early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire along with his refusal to rule out a potential campaign have many Americans curious.
“I can honestly tell you in 2023, my family and I will do what we have always done. We’ll reflect, we’ll pray and determine where we might best serve, and we’ll go where we’re called,” Pence told a CNN reporter at the time
Thor Brødreskift / Nordiske Mediedager, CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons
President Joe Biden’s Department of Justice is calling for former Donald Trump adviser Steve Bannon to receive a six-month jail sentence and a $200,000 fine for defying a subpoena from the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.
The Department’s recommendation comes ahead of Bannon’s sentencing on Friday.
A jury found Bannon guilty in July on two misdemeanor counts of contempt of Congress for refusing to testify and provide documents to the select committee. Bannon claimed executive privilege barred him from testifying before the committee despite its interest in actions he took well after his short stint in the White House.
“His effort to exact a quid pro quo with the Committee to persuade the Department of Justice to delay trial and dismiss the charges against him should leave no doubt that his contempt was deliberate and continues to this day,” the prosecutors argued according to Politico.
In their sentencing memo, the DOJ attorneys revealed newly disclosed contacts between Bannon’s lawyer, Evan Corcoran, and the select committee in which he pushed the panel to recommend dropping the charges in exchange for Bannon’s cooperation.
One attached exhibit showed that an FBI agent had interviewed the select committee’s top investigator Tim Heaphy on Oct. 7 about his interaction with Corcoran, who once worked with Heaphy at the Justice Department. Corcoran contacted him just days before Bannon’s July trial to ask about joining forces to dismiss the case, Heaphy recalled. Heaphy, who took contemporaneous notes of the call and had another staffer join as a potential witness, said “the overall ‘vibe’ of his conversation” was an “attempt to solicit the Select Committee’s assistance in their effort to delay Bannon’s criminal trial and obtain a dismissal of the Contempt of Congress charges pending against him,” according to the FBI agent’s summary of the interview.
Prosecutors also cited Bannon’s public comments about the select committee throughout his criminal proceedings, they noted that he routinely used his “War Room” podcast and public appearances at the courthouse to deride the investigation.
“Through his public platforms, the Defendant has used hyperbolic and sometimes violent rhetoric to disparage the Committee’s investigation, personally attack the Committee’s members, and ridicule the criminal justice system,” prosecutors J.P. Cooney and Amanda Vaughn wrote. “The Defendant’s statements prove that his contempt was not aimed at protecting executive privilege or the Constitution, rather it was aimed at undermining the Committee’s efforts to investigate an historic attack on government.”
A $200,000 fine is the maximum for the two counts of contempt of Congress — one for refusing to testify, and the other for refusing to produce any of the documents requested in the deposition.
Bannon is one of just two former White House officials whom the DOJ accepted a criminal contempt referral from Congress. It chose not to pursue charges against the former chief of staff Mark Meadows or White House official Dan Scavino but has charged White House aide Peter Navarro.
Election forecasters have shifted another gubernatorial race towards Republicans with less than one month to go until Election Day.
On Saturday, RealClearPolitics shifted the New York gubernatorial race from “leans Democrat” to “toss up” as Republican candidate Rep. Lee Zeldin continues to close the gap between himself and New York Gove, Kathy Hochul.
The latest change comes just a week after the polling data aggregator shifted the race from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic.” In August Gov/ Hochul led Zeldin by as many as 24 points but another poll in September showed the governor up by 17. However new data suggest the Republican candidate has remarkably made it a competitive race in deep blue New York, according to The Daily Wire.
🚨Our race was just moved to TOSS UP by @RealClearNews! We have just 24 days to go until we FIRE @KathyHochul & save our state. It’s not too late for Hochul to come out of hiding & do multiple debates with me across New York, starting immediately! pic.twitter.com/eYrm1TUYnD
New York’s move to “toss-up” comes a week after a Trafalgar Group poll indicated that the race is neck-and-neck. One of the biggest reasons Hochul appears to be lagging among her own party and Zeldin is surging is the growing problem of crime in the state. Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told The Daily Wire last week that crime is overwhelmingly the top issue for New York voters. “It’s the only state we’ve seen crime exceed the economy,” he said.
As Zeldin mentioned in his tweet, the Hochul campaign has not agreed to more than one debate that the governor wants to hold just two weeks before the election. In return, Zeldin refused to debate Hochul at all if she would not agree to more than one, meaning New Yorkers might not see the two gubernatorial candidates on stage together at all before the election.
“I am rejecting Kathy Hochul’s offer to one single debate at the very end of October,” Zeldin said during a virtual press conference, according to the New York Daily News. “I believe that it’s important for Kathy Hochul to come back with an offer to do multiple debates in multiple parts of this state.”
“I am not playing along with her games, I am not going to be playing along with this strategy that is an insult, disrespecting the voter of New York,” he added.
Zeldin’s surge in the polls follows a recent shooting in front of his home. The Republican Congressman has made the issue of rising crime a cornerstone of his campaign.
It seems Nancy Pelosi’s hatred of former President Donald Trump almost came to physical blows last year.
According to footage released by Alexandra Pelosi, a documentary filmmaker and the daughter of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker boasted that she would “punch” former President Donald Trump if he traveled to the Capitol building on Jan. 6th, 2021.
“If he comes, I’m going to punch him out,” Pelosi bragged to aides. “I’ve been waiting for this. For trespassing on the Capitol grounds, I’m going to punch him out. And I’m going to go to jail, and I’m going to be happy.”
Pelosi’s habit of bellicose language regarding Trump predated the January 6 remarks. In July 2020, the day after an interview in which President Trump indicated he might not accept the results of the November election, Pelosi told MSNBC that if Trump would not leave the White House, he would be “fumigated out.”
Speaking on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, Pelosi said, “The fact is, whether he knows it yet or not, he will be leaving. Just because he might not want to move out of the White House doesn’t mean we won’t have an inauguration ceremony to inaugurate a duly-elected President of the United States.”
“I’m second in line to the presidency and just last week I had my regular continuation of government briefing,” Pelosi continued. “This might interest you because I say to them, ‘This is never going to happen. God willing it never will.’ But there is a process. It has nothing to do with the certain occupant of the White House doesn’t feel like moving and has to be fumigated out of there because the presidency is the presidency. It’s not geography or location.”
On Thursday, the Pelosi-connected House Select Committee voted unanimously to subpoena the former president over his alleged role in the Jan. 6th attack.
