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Why GOP Red Wave Failed in 2020 But is More Likely in 2024

Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

ANALYSIS – After the disappointing ‘Red Ripple’ last week the Republican questioning and blame game quickly began. 

I wrote that the GOP failed to win more seats because it did not forcefully address the abortion issue by countering the left’s hysteria over the Dobbs decision. 

I also argued that former President Trump didn’t help Republicans by continuing to obsess over the 2020 election and making the 2022 election all about loyalty to him.

And I still believe those were major factors.

However, conservative commentator Mark Levine provides an added perspective as to why (mathematically) 2022 could never have been a ‘Red Wave’ midterm election.

And also explains why a congressional ‘Red Wave’ is far more likely in 2024.

His point is that the electoral map simply favored Democrats over Republicans this year as far as how many seats were up for grabs in Congress.

And how many were Democrats vs Republicans?

As Fox News reported:

“I noticed that many of the same people who were wrong about a red wave are now telling us what to think about a non-red wave. The experts, the consultants, the ruling class, the media, the politicians. We need to think for ourselves, enough of the static,” the host said over the weekend. “I said before the election, and I said repeatedly here and on radio: Forget about the red wave. Forget about a red tsunami. Forget about Armageddon and vote.”

In the Senate, Republicans had to defend 20 of the 34 seats up for re-election. To win the majority, Republicans would have had to “tap into” the 14 Democrat incumbent seats, the host explained.

“That was a tall hill to climb. And this is one of the reasons I wasn’t on this red-wave bandwagon so fast,” he said. “I needed to think about it. 2024. This is the key. The next election cycle, 33 seats are up. Now, listen to this. Two-thirds of them are Democrat seats. So the Democrats have to defend 23 Senate seats. The Republicans have to defend only ten.”

“So,” he continued, “the math in 2022 never really led to a red wave possibility and the math in 2024, it does lead to a red wave possibility. Does that mean there will be one? Of course not. But I’m just explaining the math, the simple math. We had about 60% of the seats up. They have almost 70% of the seats up in the next round. So what does that mean? Democrats needed to have some serious gains in the Senate last week to stave off a disaster in 2024. They failed miserably.”

So, while the congressional ‘Red Wave’ never materialized in November, because it likely never could, the GOP and conservatives are now very well positioned to make big gains in 2024.

And that includes retaking the Senate. Fox News continued:

Looking ahead to 2024, Levin said Republicans have a much higher chance of pulling off a true “red wave” than they did in last week’s midterms.

“In 2024, [Democrats are] in a horrendous situation when two-thirds of the Senate seats that are up are Democrat seats, and they’re [now] celebrating that they only lost the House by a relatively few votes, but they lost the House. And the GOP can now block these radical kook programs that Biden’s pushing. They can conduct investigations. They can do what they need to do, and they damn well better.

But this will only happen if the GOP picks the right candidate at the top of the ticket in 2024, and also makes its case in a far better way than it did just now. 

Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.


  1. STFU Paul … you need to put most of the blame on McConnell, who did NOTHING about the Democrats cheating and he proved he could remain minority speaker, if they don’t toss him.

    In the aftermath of the mid-term elections, the only good news is that we have essentially paused some elements of the Democrats’ agenda of total destruction by taking control of the House. That’s where the bad news kicks in, because what’s coming next for America (under Democrat rule) is going to be a multi-year “Dark Winter” of economic collapse, food inflation, censorship, tyranny, global war and more rigged elections.

    What the mid-term proved is that Democrats know they can cheat and rig any election at any time. From here forward, Democrats don’t even have to pretend to cater to the interests of the people. They can simply dictate their demands, no matter how insane, and arrest anyone who refuses to comply. The “dark winter” has only just begun. (Mike Adams)

  2. Red Wave Fizzle due to:

    o NO United GOP
    o Dems voting plans
    o Indoc voters vote Blue
    o Nothing learned since 2020
    o Rigged voting software

  3. the democrats cheated again the taking 2 weeks to could the votes ! in AZ Hobbs provided ballots at were the incorrect size who’s the rocket scientist that made that happen. The buck falls on Hobbs, The machines could read the ballots who’s fault is that the buck falls on Hobbs, Not enough Ballots at polling locations who’s fault is that Hobb’s the buck falls on her. Notice that the states that had questionable candidates all took days to count the votes. Just like 2020 to many questions no answers

  4. As long as Trump is not the republican candidate for the presidency the republicans will do pretty well. Trump’s ego won’t allow him to accept the fact that he is so toxic that the republicans can’t nominate him, he will go nuts and try to ruin whom ever is the party’s candidate.The party must distance themselves from him, and do it long before the first primary so the people will see they want nothing to do with him. 2024 will hopefully be better than this election cycle.

  5. I could not disagree more! Unless voting laws are corrected – making it harder to cheat – there will be no Red Wave in 2024. To ignore the obvious voting corruption taking place around the country (except in Florida which corrected the problem), tells me that you are either complicit or just plain stupid, and I don’t really believe that you are stupid. Use Florida as a model and hire Republican Lawyers right now to begin correcting voting laws in every state!

  6. Most votes, including absentee ballots, should be in and ready to count by sundown (early evening) on election day. The voting machines should function reliably and efficiently for timely counting and announcing of the elections on the day of election. Any extensions beyond the election day are likely to lead to confusion and unreliable results as has been observed recently. Absentee ballots should be exceptional and allowed only in cases of illness and other genuine circumstances. Most votes should be cast in person in properly supervised polling booths.


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