The accused assassin of conservative activist Charlie Kirk may have hit his alleged target, but prosecutors say his history of misses could help keep the death penalty on the table.
Tyler Robinson, 23, allegedly “seldom hit the bullseye and sometimes missed the target altogether” while practicing with the rifle authorities believe was used to kill Kirk, Utah prosecutors said in a court filing made public Tuesday.
The claim strikes directly at the defense’s bid to knock out the aggravating factor that could make Robinson eligible for execution if he is convicted.
Robinson’s attorneys argue that the fatal bullet traveled above the crowd at Utah Valley University rather than through it. Only one round was fired, Kirk was the only person struck and no bystanders were wounded, the defense noted.
But prosecutors say that argument ignores the risk Robinson allegedly knew he was taking when he fired a high-powered rifle from the roof of the campus’s Losee Center toward a courtyard packed with thousands of people.
Evidence recovered from Robinson’s southern Utah home allegedly included targets he had used to practice with his grandfather’s rifle, according to Fox News Digital and KSL’s coverage of the filing.
Those targets, prosecutors contend, show Robinson knew he was capable of missing — and that a miss from the rooftop could have sent a bullet into the crowd or struck someone standing near Kirk.
The state also pointed to evidence that the alleged gunman had to race across the roof, reassemble the rifle, get into position and fire within roughly one minute. He allegedly loaded four cartridges before taking the shot.
Taken together, prosecutors say, Robinson’s hurried setup, extra ammunition and spotty practice record support a reasonable inference that he understood the danger to people other than Kirk.
Several spectators were allegedly positioned between the rooftop and Kirk, while others were gathered close to the Turning Point USA founder onstage, prosecutors wrote.
Robinson’s lawyers see the scene very differently.
In a 41-page defense brief, they described an open-air shooting with a “clear line of sight.” They argued that the bullet struck its intended target, no second round was chambered and no one else was directly behind or beside Kirk in the bullet’s path.
The defense maintains that the state has shown only that harm to a bystander was possible — not that Robinson knowingly created the high probability of another death required to sustain the aggravator.
That distinction could decide whether Robinson faces a possible death sentence.
Utah’s aggravated-murder statute allows prosecutors to rely on evidence that a defendant knowingly created a great risk of death to someone other than the person killed. Robinson’s lawyers want Judge Tony Graf Jr. to strike that aggravating circumstance before trial, which would remove capital punishment as a possible sentence.
At this stage, however, prosecutors need only establish probable cause to send the charges to trial. They argue that Graf must draw reasonable inferences in the state’s favor rather than weigh competing interpretations as a jury would.
Prosecutors went further in their latest filing, accusing Robinson’s attorneys of ignoring controlling case law and saying they had “violated their ethical duty of candor to the Court.”
The state is also pressing a separate claim that Kirk was targeted because of his political expression. Prosecutors have cited an allegedly political message engraved on one of the cartridges, as well as messages Robinson allegedly sent about Kirk before surrendering.
Robinson is accused of driving from southern Utah to Orem and fatally shooting Kirk in the neck as the 31-year-old activist answered questions during a Turning Point USA event on Sept. 10, 2025.
Prosecutors allege that Robinson later admitted responsibility to several people and instructed his roommate to delete incriminating messages. He is charged with aggravated murder and six additional crimes but has not yet entered a plea.
The two sides presented evidence during a weeklong preliminary hearing in July and have since traded written arguments over whether the case — and its potential death penalty — should proceed.
Graf is scheduled to hear closing arguments on Sept. 1 before deciding whether Robinson will stand trial on all seven charges.
For Robinson’s defense, the argument is that the fatal shot was precise enough to spare everyone else.
For prosecutors, his battered practice targets tell the more dangerous story.
