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Pollsters Missed the Target – Overreacted to Favoring Dems by Favoring GOP in Midterms

By
Madeleine Jackson
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Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

ANALYSIS – ‘Red ripple.’ For at least the last several elections, pollsters have consistently oversampled Democrats and undercounted Republicans, wrongly skewing the polls in the Dems’ favor.

This is something I have written about before, and the pollster errors include the ‘shy Trump supporter’ effect where conservatives simply shun pollsters or avoid giving their true views out of fear of retribution or being ‘canceled.’

Frank Luntz, a political strategist said to The Hill: “We knew from 2016, 2018 and even 2020 that Trump voters tended not to respond to pollsters because they thought that the results would be used against them.” 

This time around the pollsters seem to have screwed up in the opposite direction, overcompensating by overweighting Republican supporters and predicting a ‘Red Wave’ in the midterm elections that never materialized.

I must admit, I too assumed that the pollsters would continue to err in favor of Dems and hence believed the polling was still undercounting Republicans.

But as they say – you should never assume because then you make an ‘ass out of u and me.’

And as Luntz added, “past errors caused pollsters to over-index Republicans.”

The Daily Caller News Foundation just did a solid analysis on this latest pollster screw-up.

As the Daily Caller reports:

Weighting Republican respondents more heavily than Democratic respondents in polls led to an overestimation of GOP support, which created the mirage of a “red wave” this midterm season, polling experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

In the House of Representatives, FiveThirtyEight, based on an aggregation of major polls, predicted a 228-seat GOP majority as the most likely outcome, while RealClearPolitics had projected at least 227 seats, with additions from 34 tossup races. In the Senate, FiveThirtyEight forecast 51 seats for the GOP, with 52 and 53 seats being as likely, while RealClearPolitics forecast 53 seats for Senate Republicans.

The results were significantly different from these projections. Though some races are yet to be called, Democrats retained control of the Senate, having won 50 seats as of writing, while Republicans, though projected to win the House, will have a narrow majority close to the 218 seats necessary for one.

The Daily Caller continues:

In the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, former President Donald Trump significantly overperformed polling in several states that pegged him to lose, with his unexpected 2016 wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and North Carolina giving him an Electoral College majority to win. Though Trump lost the 2020 election, he still won states like Florida and Ohio and came close to winning races in Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania, which polling firms had estimated would be easily won by Joe Biden.

In all, in 2020, polls underestimated the presidential popular vote, swing-state vote, Democratic House majority and the Democratic Senate majority. The American Academy of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) called it the “worst performance for polls since 1980.”

And this appears to have caused the severe pollster overcompensation we saw leading up to the midterms.

In artillery, you often fire beyond (long) and before (short of) a target to close in on it and ‘fire for effect.’ This is called ‘bracketing.’

The idea is that on the third salvo you should hit the target close to spot on.

Let’s see if these varied pollster results that undercounted GOP voters and then overcounted them were the ‘bracketing’ needed prior to their getting the 2024 polls right.

I’m not optimistic. GAND

Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

GOP House Must Impeach DHS Secretary Mayorkas for Dereliction of Duty Over Border

By
Paul Crespo
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NEW YORK CITY (September 11, 2022) Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas lays flowers for USSS Master Special Officer Craig Miller and participates in the September 11th Anniversary Commemoration Ceremony at Ground Zero in New York City, NY. (DHS photo by Sydney Phoenix)

ANALYSIS – During Joe Biden’s two-year term in office, the number of illegal migrants swarming into the U.S. has swelled to its highest number in decades. 

Many of these illegals have serious criminal records and Team Biden can’t confirm how many or who they are.

So, what does the administration do?

Rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Joe Biden’s Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Commissioner Chris Magnus was forced to resign over the weekend by Department of Homeland Security chief Alejandro Mayorkas.

While Magnus, an incompetent leftist ideologue, failed miserably as CPB chief, his firing was purely political, making him a scapegoat for Team Biden’s broader border and immigration disaster.

Analysts believe Magnus was forced to resign to avoid him testifying at future GOP-led House committee hearings.

The real villain here is Mayorkas who really needs to go. 

As a Senate-confirmed cabinet official, he has been derelict in his constitutional duties to protect the U.S. homeland.

He needs to resign or be impeached by the GOP House next year.

As Senator Ted Cruz,( R-Tx.), told Fox News Digital: 

The Biden administration found their fall guy for the chaos at the border. Responsibility for the border crisis lies with Joe Biden and DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and real accountability starts with Mayorkas being impeached. Every moment the border continues to remain open only heightens the present humanitarian and national security crisis.

Other GOP lawmakers echoed Cruz’s remarks. Fox News reported:

“The Biden administration has completely failed to protect our borders, and now it’s trying to find a scapegoat,” Burchett said. “Mayorkas should be the one to resign.”

“When Republicans take over the House, we’re gonna bring some rational thought back to our border security operations,” he continued.

Texas Republican Rep. August Pfluger also called on Mayorkas to hit the road, telling Fox News Digital the DHS secretary tried to use Magnus’ departure as a cover-up of his own “failures.”

And Texas congressman Lance Gooden tweeted about Magnus’s resignation: “Accountability would be DHS Secretary Mayorkas joining him.”

Now, GOP lawmakers with the House Homeland Security Committee confirmed that Mayorkas cannot guarantee that no convicted criminals are among the roughly two million border crossers and illegal aliens who have entered the U.S. since Joe Biden took office.

Breitbart News reported:

During a House Homeland Security Committee hearing on Tuesday, Rep. Kat Cammack (R-FL) grilled Mayorkas over the roughly 1.4 million border crossers and illegal aliens that have been released into American communities since February 2021, as well as the 600,000 illegal aliens who are known to have successfully crossed the southern border in Fiscal Year 2022.

“Now can you answer definitively … that none of the 600,000 individuals who are now in the United States amongst our communities that got away are gang members or criminals?” Cammack.

“Your question highlights precisely why we have sought to prioritize national security and public safety threats in our Immigration and Customs Enforcement apprehension and removal efforts,” Mayorkas said, evading the question.

Breitbart continued:

Mayorkas also did not provide data on how many of the nearly 30,000 convicted criminal illegal aliens apprehended in Fiscal Year 2022 went on to claim asylum after arriving at the southern border.

Cammack pressed Mayorkas on whether criminal records exist for those released into the U.S. under the Biden administration thus far.

“In Fiscal Year 2022, you have now released 1.4 million into the United States and my question to you now is can you guarantee that none of those people have criminal records?” Cammack said, to which Mayorkas did not answer directly.

This failure to respond by Mayorkas, and failure to account for, and confirm the identity and whereabouts of a large number of criminal illegal aliens in the U.S. under his watch, is cause for impeachment.

As Breitbart noted: “In April, Mayorkas failed to guarantee to lawmakers that none of the illegal aliens on the FBI Terrorism Watch List or No-Fly List, apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border at the time, had been released into American communities.”

For all these reasons, and many more, Mayorkas has failed in his constitutional duties and he should be the first Biden cabinet official to go when the GOP takes over Congress in January.

Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

Texas GOP Governor Declares Border Invasion, Again – What Next?

By
Paul Crespo
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0

ANALYSIS – The Biden border crisis just gets worse every day, with no help at all from the White House. 

And now that a federal court has invalidated Trump’s Title 42 C*VID regulation forcing would-be asylum seekers to remain in Mexico, expect a massive new illegal migrant surge.

Much of that surge and chaos is seen along the border with Texas which takes the brunt of the migrant onslaught.

In response, Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that he is invoking the U.S. Constitution’s invasion clause and taking “unprecedented measures” to repel a “border invasion.”

https://twitter.com/josephanunn/status/1592639277590249474

Abbott also sent out a press release and a letter to county officials along the border.

Abbott’s declaration comes one week after he won a third four-year term as governor. Former Trump administration officials had been urging the governors of Arizona and Texas to declare an “invasion” to justify more aggressive measures to stem the illegal migrant tide.

Infuriating his partisan critics and open border advocates, the Governor can expect severe legal pushback.

The question is – can he win?

As the American Bar Association Journal notes:

The invasion clause is in Article 1, Section 10 of the Constitution.

It provides: “No state shall, without the consent of Congress, lay any duty of tonnage, keep troops or ships of war in time of peace, enter into any agreement or compact with another state or with a foreign power or engage in war, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent danger as will not admit of delay.”

Abbott said he will deploy the National Guard to “repel and turn back” immigrants trying to enter the country illegally. He will also deploy the Texas Department of Public Safety to arrest and return to the border immigrants who came into the country illegally.

Abbott also plans to build a border wall in multiple counties, deploy gun boats, enter into a compact with other states to secure the border, and “enter into agreements with foreign powers to enhance border security.”

Abbott first authorized the National Guard and Texas police to act in July, directing them to return immigrants to ports of entry. He also referenced the invasion clause at the time.

However, Abbott has yet to issue a formal invasion declaration or official order. 

His office has not published such a declaration through an official news release or on the governor’s website, which means he has not yet gone much beyond his actions and declarations in July. 

National security expert and Navy JAG Jonathan Hullihan told The Center Square that if Abbott had invoked his constitutional authority on Tuesday, “he would have done so in an official document, not from a personal Twitter account.” 

Hence “No document, no order.” 

And critics question its legality. The ABA notes:

Nunn said Abbott’s actions were actually “a thinly veiled effort to take the reins on U.S. immigration policy.” But that would also be unconstitutional under U.S. Supreme Court precedent holding that immigration policy is “unquestionably” and “exclusively” a federal power, Nunn said.

“For all these reasons, the Biden administration would likely succeed in court if it sued to stop Abbott from carrying out his plans,” Nunn concluded.

But others see this as a well-played political move putting Team Biden in a position it can’t win.

“We’re literally talking about state officials doing the same exact thing that federal officials do with Title 42,” said Ken Cuccinelli, a senior fellow at the conservative nonprofit organization Center for Renewing America.

And as the Washington Examiner reports:

“He’s [Abbott] run Operation Lone Star and kept your National Guard up and running for a show. He knows it doesn’t do anything,” said Cuccinelli, adding that the state could win a battle in federal court. 

“If you’re the federal government and you sue Texas over it … they have to prove there is not an invasion, and they have the burden of proof because they’re the plaintiff in the case. Good luck proving that today with the state of the border. I don’t think it could be done.”

Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

Amanda Head: Are You on the #TrumpTrain for 2024?

By
Amanda Head
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0

Donald Trump officially kicked off this third presidential campaign while delivering a speech Tuesday evening from his Mar-a-Lago resort.

Are you all in on Trump 2024 or keeping your options open?

Watch Amanda break it down below.

Ivanka Trump Breaks Silence on Father’s Latest Presidential Campaign

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
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    Ivanka Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

    Donald Trump’s oldest daughter Ivanka was notably absent from his bombshell 2024 presidential campaign announcement Tuesday night.

    Ivanka, who previously served as a White House adviser, said she did not attend the Mar-a-Lago announcement because she does not plan to re-enter the political arena.

    Ivanka’s statement comes after the New York Post reported that the president “spent part of daughter Tiffany’s lavish Mar-a-Lago wedding this past weekend trying to convince his much-loved elder daughter, Ivanka, and son-in-law Jared Kushner to be with him on stage” when he announced tonight.

    “I love my father very much,” Ivanka said. “This time around, I am choosing to prioritize my young children and the private life we are creating as a family. I do not plan to be involved in politics.”

    “While I will always love and support my father, going forward I will do so outside the political arena,” she continued. “I am grateful to have had the honor of serving the American people and I will always be proud of many of our Administration’s accomplishments.”

    “I’ve had many roles over the years but that of daughter is one of the most elemental and consequential,” she said. “I am loving this time with my kids, loving life in Miami and the freedom and privacy with having returned to the private sector. This has been one of the greatest times of my life.”

    However, Ivanka’s husband Jared Kushner who was instrumental in crafting the Abraham Accords was in attendance during Trump’s campaign kickoff.

    Biden’s Dangerously Weak and Naive Meeting with China’s Chairman Xi – ‘Strategic Insanity’

    By
    Paul Crespo
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    1
    Joe Biden via Gage Skidmore Flickr

    ANALYSIS – Just when you thought things couldn’t get worse with Joe Biden, he goes and has a chummy sideline meeting with China’s communist leader-for-life, Xi Jinping, at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia.

    While his partisan spinmeisters in the media dutifully reported the White House line that Biden was firm with Xi, the three-and-a-half-hour private meeting was muddled, absurdly naïve and dangerous.

    At the summit, Biden stated that the U.S. aims to manage competition with China “responsibly” and that there is no need for a new Cold War. 

    Biden also strongly and foolishly reaffirmed China’s ‘One China’ policy regarding Taiwan, adding (against warnings from NATO and his own national security officials) that he didn’t foresee any Chinese military action against Taiwan any time soon.

    Fox News reported Biden said during a press conference ahead of the G20 summit in Bali:

    “[Xi] was clear and I was clear that we’ll defend American interests and values, promote universal human rights and stand up for the international order and work in lockstep with our allies and partners…”

    “We’re going to compete vigorously but I’m not looking for conflict. I’m looking to manage this competition responsibly,” Biden said. “And I want to make sure that every country abides by the international rules of the road. We discussed that.”

    Biden’s messaging was clear in one area though.

    He believes climate change is more of a threat than a revisionist, expansionist, power-hungry, communist dictatorship with an economy almost the size of the U.S.

    And Biden is willing to risk America’s sovereignty, independence, security and freedom to get China’s faux help with his extreme climate agenda.

    GOP Senator Marco Rubio of Florida was rightfully livid over Biden’s meeting and statements.

    Rubio said in a statement:

    President Biden’s claim that ‘there need not be a new Cold War’ between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party proves that this administration dangerously misunderstands the CCP, which openly pushes for conflict with the United States and its allies…

    Last week, while Xi appeared in a military uniform and called on the People’s Liberation Army [PLA] to prepare for war, Biden’s Department of Defense pulled an entire squadron of American fighter jets out of the Indo-Pacific. Not only is the United States unprepared to defend Taiwan against a PLA invasion, President Biden is now downplaying its likelihood.

    This meeting should have held the CCP accountable for its rampant human rights abuses, ongoing theft of American intellectual property, and its refusal to investigate the origins of COVID-19.

    Rubio added: “Instead, President Biden demonstrated that he is willing to sacrifice everything — including our national security and the security of our allies — for the sake of pursuing ill-fated climate talks with our nation’s greatest adversary.”

    Former Bush speechwriter Marc Thiessen told Fox News on Monday that Biden’s diplomacy with China is “strategic insanity” that may only help the autocratic communist state accumulate power and global influence.

    Fox News adds that “Biden reportedly has been pressuring China to essentially join him in his Green New Deal-style vision of non-petroleum power sources, which Thiessen said is one of the key areas the United States can apply pressure to Beijing if they invade their peaceable neighbor Taiwan.”

    “The last thing we want China to do, quite frankly, is to start weaning itself off of oil,” Thiessen said.

    “If they follow Biden’s advice and wean themselves off of oil and start embracing clean energy, we lose that leverage,” Thiessen said.

    “So, you know, it’s not only a sign of weakness, it’s strategic insanity.”

    As I recently reported, Xi has been increasingly adamant that so-called ‘reunification’ with Taiwan can no longer wait and China will use force if necessary to control the independent democratic nation.

    Top U.S. commanders and senior intelligence officials have warned that China could take forceful action against Taiwan as early as next year, and increasingly likely by 2025 or 2027, at the latest.

    Meanwhile, Biden is playing footsies with Xi, hoping China will join his radical green global agenda.

    Because that is all he, and his leftist puppeteers, care about. GAND

    Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

    Amanda Head: Shocking And Disturbing Details From Harvey Weinstein Trial

      By
      Amanda Head
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      Hollywood mega-producer Harvey Weinstein is currently standing trial for criminal rape.

      Watch Amanda break it down for you below:

      Trump Announces 2024 Presidential Campaign

      By
      Madeleine Jackson
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      4
      Gage Skidmore Flickr

      While addressing a crowd in his Mar-a-Lago resort former President Donald Trump officially declared his candidacy for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

      “Ladies and gentlemen, America’s comeback starts right now!” Trump said to a cheering crowd.

      “The decline of America is being forced upon us by Biden. This decline is not a choice we must accept,” Trump said.

      Epoch Times editor Ivan Pentchoukov tweeted shortly before Trump’s speech that tonight’s remarks follow a similar time frame to his initial 2016 campaign announcement.

      https://twitter.com/IvanPentchoukov/status/1592666689111408641

      Former President Donald Trump filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission on Tuesday to run for a third consecutive White House bid, ahead of a planned announcement at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Fla.

      The paperwork listed “Donald J. Trump for President 2024.”

      Trump’s main political committee had approximately $70 million in the bank as of mid-October, which could be transferred to a newer super PAC, Make America Great Again Inc.

      Trump teased the announcement on Election Day eve at a rally in Ohio to support U.S. Senate candidate J.D. Vance.

      “I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, Nov. 15, at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla.,” Trump said toward the end of a rally near Dayton, Ohio, where he was campaigning for a host of candidates in the state, including Republican Senate candidate J.D. Vance.

      “We want nothing to distract from the importance of tomorrow,” Trump said.

      As Great America News Desk previously reported:

      However, while a Republican red tsunami was expected to sweep the midterm elections the results thus far have been disappointing as the GOP has yet to officially win a majority in either chamber. Some conservatives have blamed Trump’s interference as a major factor behind the lackluster results and have expressed hopes he will reconsider his announcement.

      Former House Speaker for the GOP, Newt Gingrich, stated on Wednesday that he believes Trump might be reconsidering his plans for 2024.

      “I mean, just in my own emails today, [with] the number of people who want somebody other than Trump who have decided, literally overnight, that person is going to be DeSantis, he’s going to find it almost impossible to avoid running,” Gingrich told Just the News. “I think Trump’s got to look at the results and be troubled.”

      Trump’s announcement tees up a re-match against Joe Biden, who has said he plans to seek a second term.

      This story is developing. Stay with Great America News Desk for updates.

      McCarthy Wins Nod to Become House Speaker as Senate Leadership Feud Heats Up

      By
      Madeleine Jackson
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      Despite a last-minute challenge from House Freedom Caucus chairman Andy Biggs (Ariz.) Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) handily won the nomination for House Speaker in a closed-door conference meeting on Tuesday.

      Rep. McCarthy won easily, 188 to 31, in the internal conference meeting.

      The secret-ballot House Republican Conference vote is just the first step for McCarthy to take hold of the gavel. He must win a majority in a public vote on the House floor — at least 218 votes, assuming a fully sworn-in House — on the first day of the next Congress on Jan. 3.

      According to The Hill, Biggs was nominated by Rep. Chip Roy (Texas), with Reps. Michael Cloud (Texas) and Ralph Norman (S.C.) seconding the nomination, according to a source in the room. Rep. Kelly Armstrong (N.D.) gave a speech in support of McCarthy.

      While McCarthy has been considered the favorite to become Speaker when Republicans retake the House the lackluster midterm results have recently spurred infighting among House Republicans, with some directly criticizing McCarthy’s leadership.

      Rep. Biggs announced his plans to challenge the California Republican for the position on Monday. (RELATED: Freedom Caucus Chairman Expected to Announce Challenge for House Speaker)

      Biggs acknowledged successfully challenging McCarthy would be difficult.

      Separately, Senate leadership is also facing an uncertain future as Florida Senator Rick Scott officially announced he’s running to unseat Mitch McConnell (Ky.) as Senate Minority Leader.

      The chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee has been at odds with McConnell for most of this year over political strategy.

      Scott announced his campaign in a letter to Senate Republicans on Tuesday:

      “I’m writing to you today because I believe it’s time for the Senate Republican Conference to be far more bold and resolute than we have been in the past. We must start saying what we are for, not just what we are against,” Scott said in a letter to GOP colleagues. “I do not believe we can simply continue to say the Democrats are radical, which they are. Republican voters expect and deserve to know our plan to promote and advance conservative values. “

      Scott added: “For those who want to get serious about ending reckless government spending and the devastating inflation it has caused, finally take action to protect Social Security and Medicare and preserve the promise of these programs for our children and grandchildren, hold government accountable from the FBI to the IRS, truly combat the extreme danger posed by Communist China and refocus our military on lethal defense instead of woke nonsense, I ask for your support in changing the direction of the Senate and rescuing America from the dangerous path Democrats have set it on.”

      11.15.22-RickScott-DearColleagueLetterDownload

      DeSantis Responds to Abrupt Trump Attacks

      By
      Madeleine Jackson
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      13

      Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is finally responding to the surprise attack from former President Donald Trump last week, calling it “noise.”

      DeSantis was asked by a reporter what he thinks about Trump’s “big announcement” tonight and his thoughts about Trump repeatedly attacking him. (RELATED: Trump Goes Nuclear on Gov. Ron DeSantis, Glenn Youngkin)

      “Well, you know, one of the things I’ve learned in this job is when you’re doing, when you’re leading, when you’re getting things done, you take incoming fire, that’s just the nature of it,” DeSantis said. “I roll out of bed in the morning, I’ve got corporate media outlets that have a spasm, just the fact that I’m getting up in the morning, and it’s constantly attacking, and this is just what’s happened.”

      “I don’t think any governor got attacked more particularly by corporate media than me over my four-year term,” DeSantis continued. “And yet, I think what you learn is all that’s just noise. And really what matters is: Are you leading? Are you getting in front of issues? Are you delivering results for people? And are you standing up for folks? And if you do that, then none of that stuff matters. And that’s what we’ve done.”

      “We focused on results and leadership. And, you know, at the end of the day, I would just tell people to go check out the scoreboard from last Tuesday night,” DeSantis continued. “The fact of the matter is, it was the greatest Republican victory in the history of the state of Florida.”

      Trump also targeted Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin in a shocking message. Both Republican governors have been floated as potential contenders for the Republican presidential nomination.

      Trump is expected to announce his 2024 presidential campaign in a Nov. 15th announcement from Mar-a-Lago.

      However, while DeSantis has decided to move past Trump’s comments the former president seems to be doubling down. In a Tuesday afternoon Truth Social message Trump targeted DeSantis again by pointing out a 2018 gubernatorial ad in which the Florida governor praises him.

      In a tongue-in-cheek ad, seemingly no longer available on his YouTube page, DeSantis was shown building a toy wall and reading a book about Trump to his children, brandishing himself as a “pit bull Trump defender.” 

      “Hopefully TODAY will turn out to be one of the most important days in the history of our Country,” Trump teased in another Truth Social post.

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