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    Pennsylvania’s 2024 Senate Race Heats Up – A Must-Win For Republicans

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
    -
    0

    The 2024 Pennsylvania Senate race is emerging as one of the most closely watched and pivotal contests in the nation, with significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Casey Jr. is seeking reelection for a fourth term, while Republicans are coalescing around David McCormick, a former hedge fund executive.

    Both candidates are gearing up for what is expected to be one of the most expensive and competitive Senate races in the country…

    Bob Casey Jr.: The Incumbent

    Bob Casey Jr., son of the late Governor Bob Casey Sr., has served Pennsylvania in the Senate since 2006. Casey has built a reputation as a pragmatic legislator who prioritizes health care, jobs and labor rights.

    U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

    In the Senate, Casey has leveraged his seniority to secure key committee assignments, including on the influential Senate Finance Committee.

    However, the political climate in Pennsylvania has become increasingly polarized in recent years, teeing up a more challenging electoral environment for the seasoned politician this year. With the Keystone State narrowly voting for Joe Biden in 2020 after flipping to Donald Trump in 2016, Republicans see this as an opportunity to unseat Casey.

    David McCormick: The Challenger

    David McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO and Army veteran, is a prominent figure in Pennsylvania politics and business. McCormick served as the CEO of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, from 2020 to 2022, where he gained a reputation for strong leadership in the financial sector. A West Point graduate, McCormick also served as an Army officer during the Gulf War, earning a Bronze Star for his service.

    National Archives at College Park – Still Pictures, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

    In public service, McCormick held senior economic positions in the George W. Bush administration, including Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs. His platform emphasizes economic growth, job creation and strengthening national security. McCormick is also focused on fiscal conservatism, advocating for reduced government spending and taxes.

    McCormick previously ran for Senate in 2022, narrowly losing the Republican primary to Mehmet Oz, who ultimately lost to Democrat John Fetterman in the general election. Since then, McCormick has remained active in Pennsylvania politics, positioning himself as a fiscal conservative and critic of the Biden administration’s economic policies.

    McCormick’s background in business and finance has appealed to Pennsylvania’s suburban voters, while his military service has resonated with the state’s sizable veteran population along with Donald Trump’s MAGA base.

    Key Policy Issues

    In his 2024 campaign, McCormick has focused on national security, economic freedom and his status as a business leader and political outsider, in stark contrast to Casey’s long tenure in Washington. This dynamic has brought the race to a near tie.

    McCormick’s platform focuses on reducing government spending, boosting economic growth and opposing progressive policies that he argues have hurt the state’s energy sector, particularly coal and natural gas.

    Fundraising and Campaign Spending

    The Pennsylvania Senate race is expected to be one of the most expensive in the nation, with both candidates benefiting from substantial outside spending.

    According to Federal Election Commission (FEC) data, Bob Casey has raised more than $21 million, thanks to strong support from labor unions, healthcare groups, and Democrat super PACs such as the Senate Majority PAC. Casey’s deep connections with national Democrats and his long-standing relationships with Pennsylvania’s organized labor groups have made him a fundraising powerhouse.

    On the Republican side, David McCormick has raised over $17 million with significant support from national conservative groups such as Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity.

    Endorsements and Support

    Donald Trump: Former President Donald Trump officially endorsed McCormick’s Senate bid last April during a Pennsylvania rally.

    “I am officially giving my endorsement to David McCormick tonight. He’s a good a man. He wants to run a good ship. He’s a smart guy, who was a very successful guy. He’s given up a lot to do this,” Trump told supporters at a rally in Schnecksville, Pennsylvania.

    “I’ll tell you what: He’s the nominee of the Republican Party, David McCormick. Go out and vote for him because Casey doesn’t do a damn thing,” Trump said.

    Pat Toomey: Former Senator Pat Toomey praised McCormick’s economic expertise and commitment to conservative values, saying he’s the right leader to represent Pennsylvania.

    Ari Fleischer: The former White House Press Secretary endorsed McCormick at a September fundraiser, highlighting his strong leadership and policy experience.

    Organizational Endorsements:

    Senate Leadership Fund: Backed McCormick as part of their efforts to secure Republican Senate seats.

    Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC): Endorsed McCormick for his unwavering support for Israel and stance against antisemitism​.

    “RJC trusts Dave McCormick – a 7th generation Pennsylvanian, West Point graduate, combat veteran, Bronze star recipient, Pennsylvania job creator and business leader – to be a Senator the people of Pennsylvania can be proud of.”

    “Bob Casey is no friend of Israel. Where Bob Casey has failed, Dave McCormick will lead.”

    Voter Sentiment and Polling

    Recent polling data suggests that the race between Casey and McCormick is likely to be close, reflecting Pennsylvania’s status as a swing state. Polls indicate that Casey holds a slight lead over McCormick, but the race is expected to tighten as November draws closer. Pennsylvania has a history of closely contested statewide elections, with margins often decided by just a few percentage points.

    RealClearPolitics (October 14, 2024): Casey leads McCormick 47.8% to 44.6%​

    Emerson College Poll (October 2024): 48% support incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Casey while 46% support Republican Dave McCormick.

    Trafalgar Polling (October 2024): Casey leads McCormick 47.4% to 45.6% with 7% undecided.

    Quinnipiac Univesity (October 2024): Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey leads Republican challenger David McCormick 51% to 43%. Democrats 96% to 3% back Casey, while Republicans 88 % to 10% back McCormick. Independents are evenly split, with 44% supporting McCormick and 44% supporting Casey.

    Both candidates will need to appeal to Pennsylvania’s diverse electorate, which includes rural, suburban, and urban voters. Rural parts of the state have trended Republican in recent elections, while urban areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh remain Democratic strongholds. The key battleground will likely be the suburbs, particularly in counties like Bucks and Montgomery, where moderate and independent voters could swing the outcome.

    It’s Time To DRAIN THE SWAMP! Stop Supporting Career Politicians – Elect Dave McCormick! WE NEED YOUR SUPPORT! Help us win back the Senate.

    Battle Royale In Wisconsin: Can Republicans Prevail?

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
    -
    0

    Voter turnout is likely to be the key factor…

    The Wisconsin Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive and expensive races in the 2024 election cycle. Let’s take a deeper dive into this contentious race.

    Tammy Baldwin: Meet The Incumbent

    Senate Democrats, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

    Senator Tammy Baldwin has represented Wisconsin in the U.S. Senate since 2012, making history as the first openly gay member of the chamber. She has built a reputation as a progressive champion, focusing on key issues like health care, LGBTQ+ rights and so-called economic fairness—advocating for reducing income inequality, expanding access to social safety nets and promoting the redistribution of wealth and resources. Over the course of her two terms, she has built a strong base of support in urban areas like Milwaukee and Madison but has alienated voters elsewhere over her support of far-left policies.

    Baldwin faces a tough reelection battle in 2024 as Wisconsin’s political landscape has become increasingly competitive. However, with her incumbent status and a robust war chest, Baldwin remains a formidable candidate with deep connections to Wisconsin voters.

    The Republican Challenger: Eric Hovde

    Eric Hovde 2012 Senate campaign. WisPolitics.com, via Wikimedia Commons

    Eric Hovde, a prominent businessman, philanthropist and Madison native, is making his second bid for the U.S. Senate in Wisconsin. As a successful entrepreneur, Hovde built a career in real estate investment and banking, having served as CEO of Hovde Properties and Hovde Capital Advisors. His business acumen has fueled his platform of fiscal conservatism, emphasizing reduced government spending and tax reform. Hovde is also known for his philanthropic work, particularly through his foundation, which focuses on supporting veterans, health care initiatives and combating homelessness. His campaign has receive significant support from conservative PACs, including the Fix Washington Political Action Committee, which received $1 million from Hovde’s brother days after its creation.

    Key Policy Issues:

    Fiscal Conservatism: Hovde emphasizes reducing government spending, cutting taxes and addressing the national debt through economic policies aimed at shrinking government intervention.

    Health care Reform: He advocates for market-based solutions in health care, promoting competition and reducing the influence of government in the U.S. health care system.

    Economic Growth: Hovde supports deregulation to help businesses thrive, focusing on reducing what he sees as overregulation that hinders job creation and economic expansion.

    Critical Issues in the Race

    The 2024 Senate race in Wisconsin will likely hinge on a few key issues that have shaped recent elections in the state. These include the economy, health care and the rural-urban divide that has become increasingly pronounced in Wisconsin politics.

    1. The Economy: Wisconsin’s economy, like much of the Midwest, is heavily reliant on manufacturing and agriculture. Job creation, wage growth and trade policies will be at the forefront of voter concerns. Baldwin has championed policies aimed at revitalizing Wisconsin’s industrial base, such as her efforts to protect manufacturing jobs from outsourcing. However, Republicans argue that her policies have not gone far enough to stimulate economic growth, particularly in rural, GOP-leaning areas.
    2. Health care: Health care continues to be a top issue for Wisconsin voters, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Baldwin has been an advocate for expanding health care access, including supporting Obamacare.
    3. The Rural-Urban Divide: Like many other swing states, Wisconsin has a stark political divide between its urban and rural areas. Baldwin’s challenge will be to maintain her strong support in liberal strongholds like Madison and Milwaukee, while making inroads in rural areas that have increasingly turned to Republicans in recent elections. Hovde is working to bridge the gap between the party’s base in rural Wisconsin and more moderate, suburban voters. Waukesha, a historically suburban Republican stronghold west of Milwaukee that has shifted leftward in recent cycles, may play a decisive role depending on the margin of victory for Trump and Hovde there.

    Campaign Spending and Fundraising

    With control of the Senate at stake, both parties view Wisconsin as a true toss-up, guaranteeing that fundraising and spending will continue at unprecedented levels.

    When all said and done, the 2024 Senate race is expected to be one of the most expensive in Wisconsin’s history, with both candidates benefiting from significant outside spending by national political action committees (PACs). According to Federal Election Commission (FEC) data, Baldwin has raised over $30 million, positioning her campaign to compete on a national level. Her campaign has benefitted from support from Democrat-leaning groups such as the Senate Majority PAC and organizations focused on health care and LGBTQ+ rights, according to Open Secrets.

    On the Republican side, Hovde has brought considerable personal wealth to his campaign, as he did during his 2012 run according to FEC data. Prominent conservative PACs, Americans for Prosperity and Club For Growth have also been strong supporters of the Hovde campaign. Fix Washington PAC endorsed Hovde for his pro-business policies.

    Voter Sentiment and Polling

    Senator Baldwin’s approval ratings remain relatively strong, but Republicans see an opportunity to exploit national dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden’s administration, particularly on issues like inflation and immigration and uncertainty surrounding a potential Harris presidency.

    Recent polling data highlights the competitiveness of the 2024 Wisconsin Senate race between the incumbent Senator and Republican businessman. Several sources point to a tightening contest:

    • RealClearPolitics polling average shows Baldwin with a slim lead of around 3 percentage points over Hovde, with Baldwin polling at 49% and Hovde at 46%​.
    • Wisconsin Watch reported Baldwin leading Hovde by 52% to 44%, but this lead appears to be outside the poll’s margin of error. Other polls, such as those from Emerson College and Marist College, also reflect a smaller gap, with Baldwin holding leads within 3-5 points​.
    • A Cook Political Report poll marked the race as a “toss-up,” with a significant swing among independent voters toward Hovde, further tightening the race to a 49% to 47% split.
    • A Quinnipiac University poll released October 9th, reported incumbent Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin has a slight lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde 50% to 46%.

    The Wisconsin Senate race is crucial for both parties as they fight for control of the upper chamber. With Democrats holding a narrow 51-49 majority in the Senate, every competitive seat counts, and Wisconsin’s swing-state status means the race could play a decisive role in determining which party controls the Senate after 2024.

    For Republicans, flipping Baldwin’s seat would not only bolster their chances of retaking the Senate but also signal a continued shift in the Midwest toward the GOP.

    The 2024 Wisconsin Senate race will be one of the most closely watched contests in the nation, with both parties pouring significant resources into the state. Senator Tammy Baldwin’s bid for a third term will test her ability to maintain support in a politically divided state, while Republicans look to capitalize on national trends and local concerns to flip the seat.

    Support job creation and economic recovery over woke political pandering? DONATE to Eric Hovde’s campaign today!

    Trump Secures Key Border Patrol Endorsement At Arizona Rally

    By
    Patrick Houck
    -
    1

    Former President Donald Trump received a significant endorsement from the Border Patrol union during a campaign rally in Arizona, a crucial swing state. The endorsement could prove pivotal as immigration remains a top concern for voters.

    The rally, held on Sunday, was marked by Trump’s promise to increase border security. He announced plans to hire 10,000 additional border agents, provide a 10% pay raise and introduce a $10,000 signing and retention bonus. “They deserve it,” Trump said, highlighting what he described as unfair treatment of agents.

    The Washington Times further reports on border security personnel throwing their support behind the only candidate they believe will secure the border:

    Paul Perez, president of the union representing 16,000 Border Patrol agents, said the former president has been a true ally.

    “America, I have a message for you: If we allow ‘Border Czar’ Harris to win this election, every city, every community in this great country is going to go to hell,” Mr. Perez said, lamenting that millions of unvetted migrants who have entered the country illegally under the Biden-Harris administration.

    “Only one man can fix that. That is Donald J. Trump,” he said.

    “He has always stood with the men and women who protect this border, who put their lives on the line for the country,” he said.

    Illegal immigration has consistently ranked as a key issue, with a study in June revealing that half of the jobs created under President Biden’s economic policies went to undocumented workers rather than American citizens.

    Trump’s endorsement by the Border Patrol union comes as Democrats face increasing pressure over their handling of the border crisis. Matt Corridoni, spokesperson for the Harris campaign, criticized the endorsement, pointing to what he called Trump’s broken promises. “Trump told us Mexico would pay for his failed border wall. That was a lie,” Corridoni stated, adding that Trump killed a bipartisan border bill that could have strengthened border security.

    Corridoni also defended Vice President Kamala Harris’s record, stating, “There’s only one candidate focused on tackling issues for the American people, has taken on transnational gangs, and is focused on keeping our communities safe—Vice President Kamala Harris.”

    Despite these efforts, Democrats have faced challenges in managing immigration. Harris, in her role as “border czar,” has been criticized for the influx of nearly 10 million undocumented migrants during her tenure. The situation worsened when Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas confirmed on Oct. 2 that DHS may not have sufficient funds to provide assistance through the end of the hurricane season, after spending $1 billion on immigration-related costs.

    As Election Day rapidly approaches, immigration is likely to remain a central issue, with both parties vying for voters concerned about border security.

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    Harris Campaign’s Endorsement By Fake Police Group Raises Astroturf Concerns

    By
    Patrick Houck
    -
    3

    As Vice President Kamala Harris continues her campaign, avoiding direct interviews and carefully selecting debate settings, questions about the authenticity of her support base are growing. The latest example is the endorsement from a group called “Police Leaders for Community Safety,” which Harris’s campaign and media outlets touted as a “stunning endorsement” from a group that typically backs Trump.

    However, scrutiny reveals that the group is far from a major law enforcement organization. USA Today notes that “Police Leaders for Community Safety” was only formed in 2024, describes itself as representing “dozens of police officials,” and is led by Sue Riseling, a former chief of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Police Department. The group is primarily composed of former law enforcement members, many of whom lean left politically.

    The newspaper explained that “as the group has only been around since June, this marks the first endorsement for Police Leaders for Community Safety, with the group throwing their support for Harris.”

    The group’s announcement to Fox News, however, failed to share that information:

    The organization – which says it is led by a diverse group of prominent police professionals who have been at the helm of numerous major national law enforcement leadership groups – highlights that its mission is to champion “policies to make communities and the people in them safer, improve and evolve policing, and safeguard the rule of law.”

    Photo via Gage Skidmore Flickr

    “This endorsement reflects Vice President Harris’ track record and unwavering commitment to public safety and the rule of law,” Sue Riseling, chair of Police Leaders for Community Safety, said.

    Police Leaders for Community Safety board member David Mahoney, a former Dane County, Wisconsin, sheriff and past president of the National Sheriffs’ Association, said that Harris “spent her prosecutorial career protecting people, supporting victims and holding accountable those who have harmed others and betrayed the public trust. As a lawmaker, she has fought hard for the critical law enforcement-backed policies needed to fight crime and protect the public.”

    Critics have accused the Harris campaign of astroturfing, creating a façade of grassroots support by highlighting endorsements from groups with little influence in the law enforcement community. This comes in stark contrast to Donald Trump’s endorsement from the National Fraternal Order of Police (FOP), the nation’s oldest and most influential law enforcement organization, which has supported Trump in the last three elections.

    FOP President Patrick Yoes emphasized the importance of public safety and border security, stating that Trump’s policies align with the values of law enforcement officers across the country.

    READ NEXT: Top MAGA Republican Burned At Campaign Event, Returns To The Trail

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    Nate Silver’s Forecast: Harris Now Favored Over Trump In 2024 Election

    By
    Patrick Houck
    -
    3
    Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

    In a significant shift, Vice President Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump in the latest 2024 election forecast from data expert Nate Silver. According to Silver’s “Silver Bulletin” election model, Harris currently holds a 58% likelihood of winning the presidency, compared to Trump’s 42%.

    This marks a reversal from early September, when Trump had over a 60% chance of victory. Silver attributes the shift to changes in polling data. He noted that Harris has gained a 3-point lead nationally and has been performing well in key battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina.

    The exception is Arizona, where Harris has struggled in recent polling, but Silver noted it has only a 5% chance of being the tipping-point state.

    While Silver still categorizes the race as a toss-up, he suggested that Harris’s hand appears stronger. He also pointed to positive economic revisions, which he said have bolstered Harris’s chances.

    Silver explained that Harris has two viable paths to securing the Electoral College, whereas Trump’s options appear more limited. Harris could win the presidency even if she loses all the toss-up states, provided she secures Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

    Mediaite has further details on Harris’ “Plan A” and “Plan B” pathways to victory:

    Silver’s latest write-up of his forecast notes that Harris, unlike Trump, has two solid routes to winning the Electoral College. Harris can lose all the toss-up states while winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and still become president.

    Silver calls this “Plan A” – the long talked about “blue wall” that crumbled in 2016 for Hillary Clinton. Silver explains that Harris also has a “Plan B” if one of those states falls – despite her polling up in all three. Harris can win “North Carolin, Georgia, or both” in order to still get to 270 – especially as she’s in striking position in Nevada and ahead in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

    Trump, on the other hand, must win all of the toss-up states and at least one of the three “blue wall’ states.

    As recently as a few weeks ago, Silver’s model had Trump leading Harris in betting odds. However, recent developments have reshaped the landscape as the 2024 election approaches.

    Silver’s full analysis is available by clicking here.

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    RFK Jr. Blocked From New York Ballot As Supreme Court Declines Appeal

    By
    Patrick Houck
    -
    0
    Duncan Lock, Dflock, CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons

    Residence Questioned by Courts

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will not be listed as a presidential candidate on the New York state ballot after the U.S. Supreme Court declined to reinstate his name. Lower courts determined that Kennedy’s address in Katonah, New York, did not qualify as his fixed and permanent residence, leading to his exclusion from the ballot.

    Kennedy’s legal team argued that removing him from the ballot would deprive his New York supporters of their right to vote for him. They emphasized that no evidence suggested voters had been misled about his candidacy. Despite these arguments, the Supreme Court declined to issue an emergency injunction.

    Opposition from New York Attorney General

    The emergency request to reinstate Kennedy’s name faced strong opposition from New York Attorney General Letitia James’ office. Her team argued that the state had already mailed absentee ballots and the certification deadline had passed, making it too late to add his name back to the ballot. The court’s refusal marks a significant setback for Kennedy’s campaign efforts in New York.

    Kennedy suspended his presidential campaign last month and endorsed former President Donald Trump’s bid for the White House. Since then, he has worked to remove his name from ballots in critical swing states while keeping it on in others, triggering a series of legal battles.

    This Supreme Court appeal marked Kennedy’s first attempt to remain on the New York ballot, but he isn’t the first candidate to face such a challenge. Earlier this month, the Green Party’s candidate, Jill Stein, also failed to secure a spot on Nevada’s ballot after the Supreme Court denied a similar emergency request.

    New York Polls: Kamala Harris Leads Trump

    Despite Kennedy’s exclusion from the ballot, the latest Siena College poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 13 points in a direct matchup in New York. Pollster Steven Greenberg noted that although New York remains solidly blue, the margin isn’t as wide as in recent presidential cycles.

    “Despite the Democratic convention, the debate and numerous other events during the six weeks between Siena College polls, there has been little movement in the horse race or in either candidate’s favorability rating. While the race appears largely static, Harris did pick up support among Latino voters, leading Trump 56-39%, up from 48-47% in August,” Greenberg noted. “Independents moved further in Trump’s direction, supporting him over Harris 58-34%, up from 47-40% last month. Interestingly, New York’s independent voters moved significantly in the Republican direction across several questions that will be on the ballot.”

    “New Yorkers trust Harris more than Trump on abortion, democracy and the economy, and trust them equally on immigration. But there are huge partisan divides. Democrats trust Harris on all four issues by between 76 and 89 percent, and Republicans trust Trump by between 76 and 89 percent,” the Siena College pollster continued. “While independents trust Harris more on abortion by 50-42%, they trust Trump more on the other three by between 15 and 34 points.”

    In previous elections, Democrats have won New York by at least 18 points. President Biden carried the state by 23 points in 2020. In a multi-candidate race, Harris’ lead drops slightly to 12 points.

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    Bret Baier Suggests Trump Is The ‘Holdup’ In Potential Fox News Presidential Debate

    By
    Patrick Houck
    -
    9
    The White House from Washington, DC, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

    Fox News anchor Bret Baier suggested this week that former President Donald Trump may be the “holdup” preventing a potential Fox News debate between him and Vice President Kamala Harris. During an interview with radio host Hugh Hewitt, Baier expressed his belief that the Harris campaign would likely agree to a debate on Fox News.

    “I actually believe – this is me talking – that the Harris campaign would do a Fox debate,” Baier said, adding that Trump seems hesitant to move forward with the idea.

    Others feel differently, as The Daily Caller reports:

    CNN’s Chris Wallace said on Sept. 13 that there is no chance that Harris will debate Trump on Fox News.

    “I would say that there is an absolutely 0%, what’s lower than 0, chance that she would agree to debate on Fox,” Wallace said. “Let me tell you a quick story. Back in 2019 when she was running, the president of Fox News and I, who was seen as being pretty even handed, went to meet with a bunch of the Democrats to try and get them to do town halls or do an interview. [Democratic Massachusetts Sen.] Elizabeth Warren met with us, [independent Vermont Sen.] Bernie Sanders met with us, the only Democrat who refused to meet with us off-the-record just to consider the possibility of going on Fox was Kamala Harris. There is a 0% chance that she will agree to an interview on Fox.”

    Harris accepted an Oct. 23 debate with CNN, but Trump said it is “too late” because of how close it would be to the November election.

    “As President Trump has said, only losers request a rematch. Kamala Harris lost the debate, and she knows it,” Karoline Leavitt, Trump campaign national press secretary, told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

    Following the Sept. 10 debate on ABC News, Trump has declared there will be no further debates. Meanwhile, Harris has agreed to a CNN debate on Oct. 23. A prior Fox News debate proposal, which Trump had agreed to, never materialized.

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    Democratic-Leaning Pollster Shows Trump Leading Harris Nationally

    By
    Patrick Houck
    -
    2
    Gage Skidmore Flickr

    A new national poll by Quinnipiac reveals a close and highly competitive race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. According to the poll, conducted between Sept. 19-22, Trump leads Harris by 1%, securing 48% of likely voters’ support compared to Harris’ 47%. (The previous August poll showed a different story, with Harris leading by 2%.)

    Quinnipiac is a well-known polling institution that gained attention during the 2020 election cycle when it predicted an 11-point victory for President Biden – though the final margin was just 4.5 percentage points.

    Polling Details at a Glance:

    • Sample Size: 1,728 likely voters
    • Dates: Sept. 19-22
    • Previous Poll Results: Harris up by 2% in August
    • Current Poll Results: Trump 48%, Harris 47%

    Voter Demographics: A Deeper Look

    Both Trump and Harris show strong support within their own parties, but Trump edges out Harris slightly among independent voters, with 47% compared to Harris’ 44%. Notably, Trump also holds a 14-point advantage with male voters, while Harris leads by 12 points among women.

    When looking at age demographics, Harris performs best among older voters (65+), where she has an 8-point lead. She also wins the youngest voters (18-34), but only by 3%. Trump, on the other hand, captures the majority of voters in the 35-64 age group.

    Key Findings on Racial and Ethnic Voters

    A crucial factor in this tight race is the support from racial and ethnic groups:

    • Black Americans overwhelmingly support Harris, with 83% expressing their preference for the Democratic candidate.
    • Hispanic voters, however, tilt toward Trump, with 52% supporting him compared to 44% for Harris.

    As The Hill reports:

    Nearly two-thirds of likely voters, 64 percent, said they would like a second debate between the White House contenders. Around 31 percent of respondents thought otherwise. Last week, Harris accepted an invitation for a second showdown from CNN. Trump said during his campaign event in North Carolina that it’s “too late to do another” debate. 

    Another new poll, conducted by CNN and SSRS, found a similar split among likely voters. In the national poll, also released Tuesday, Harris received 48 percent support, while Trump got 47 percent. 

    Harris currently has a near-4 percent lead over Trump in the latest The Hill/Decision Desk HQ aggregate of polls. The vice president stands at 50.4 percent. The ex-president is at 46.5 percent.

    The bottom line? The race is still too close to call with 41 days left until Election Day.

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    Nebraska Democrat-Turned-Republican Senator Blocks Trump’s Electoral Vote Plan

    By
    Patrick Houck
    -
    2
    Photo via Gage Skidmore Flickr

    In a surprising political move, Nebraska State Sen. Mike McDonnell, a former Democrat-turned-Republican, has effectively derailed efforts by former President Donald Trump and his allies to alter the state’s method of distributing electoral votes just ahead of the 2024 election. The proposal, if passed, could have shifted Nebraska to a winner-take-all system, favoring the GOP in a heavily conservative state.

    McDonnell’s Decision: A Game-Changer

    On Monday, McDonnell announced that he would not support the push to change the way Nebraska awards its electoral votes. “I understand the motivations of some of my colleagues,” McDonnell told The Washington Post. “However, after considerable reflection, it’s clear that with just over a month left before Election Day, now is not the right time to make this change.” (McDonnell has long been seen as a swing vote in the legislature, making his decision particularly impactful.)

    How Nebraska’s System Works

    Nebraska and Maine are unique in how they allocate their electoral votes. Unlike the typical winner-take-all system, these states distribute votes by congressional district. This allowed President Joe Biden to secure one electoral vote from Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, covering the Omaha area, in the 2020 election. Trump allies aimed to shift Nebraska to a winner-take-all model to bolster Republican chances.

    Pushback From Trump Allies

    Trump supporters have lobbied for months to change Nebraska’s system, viewing it as a crucial battleground. Their aim was to prevent Vice President Kamala Harris from easily winning the Omaha district, which could combine with her victories in other swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan.

    Rising Pressure

    Last week, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, a vocal Trump ally, visited Nebraska to lobby for the change. Trump also personally reached out to state legislators. However, McDonnell’s decision has made it unlikely that Nebraska’s governor, Jim Pillen, will call a special session to vote on the matter.

    Trump’s Response

    Trump expressed his frustration on Truth Social, accusing McDonnell of blocking a “huge Republican victory.” Calling him a “grandstander,” Trump made it clear that he views this decision as a significant setback for his 2024 campaign.

    What’s Next?

    Although the current effort has stalled, State Sen. Loren Lippincott, who sponsored the bill, stated that he plans to reintroduce the legislation during the next session. “This fight isn’t over,” Lippincott said, signaling that Nebraska’s electoral system may be contested well beyond 2024.

    What It Means for the 2024 Election

    McDonnell’s decision could have significant implications. By keeping the congressional district-based allocation in place, the Omaha area remains competitive for both parties. This keeps Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District in play and could provide a critical edge in a tight race between Trump and Harris.

    For now, McDonnell’s refusal to back the change has ensured that Nebraska’s 2nd District will remain a swing district, at least through the 2024 election.

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    Republican Party Halts Ad Spending For Embattled Trump-Backed Candidate

    By
    Patrick Houck
    -
    5
    Gage Skidmore Flickr

    The Republican Party has confirmed it is pulling financial support for Trump-backed North Carolina gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

    Robinson’s campaign has been in steep decline since revelations surfaced that he allegedly left racist comments on a porn website’s message board. Following calls from North Carolina Republicans for him to step down and the resignation of several high-ranking staffers – including his campaign manager and deputy campaign manager – Robinson has now lost the financial backing of the Republican Governors Association (RGA).

    RGA spokesperson Courtney Alexander told National Review (NR), “We don’t comment on internal strategy or investment decisions, but we can confirm what’s public – our current media buy in North Carolina expires tomorrow, and no further placements have been made.”

    The RGA’s spending update follows a CNN report Thursday afternoon connecting Robinsons’s email to comments on a porn-site messaging board, where he allegedly called himself a “black Nazi” and made other unsavory sexual and race-related comments years before he was elected to statewide office. Robinson has denied the allegations, as NR first reported last Thursday.

    …

    The news comes as the Robinson campaign continues to bleed staff. On Sunday, Robinson’s campaign sent out a press release announcing that four employees resigned from his campaign: general consultant Conrad Pogorzelski III, campaign manager Christopher Rodriguez, finance director Heather Whillier, and deputy campaign manager Jason Rizk.

    “I appreciate the efforts of these team members who have made the difficult choice to step away from the campaign, and I wish them well in their future endeavors,” Robinson said in a press release. “An announcement of new incoming staff members will be forthcoming from the campaign soon.”

    Four additional staffers not listed in that press release have also resigned, according to Pogorzelski, Robinson’s former general consultant. “The reports are true that I, along with others from the campaign have left of our own accord,” he said in a text message to National Review that listed several other staff departures, including deputy finance director Caroline Winchester, political director John Kontoulas, political director Jackson Lohrer, and director of operations Patrick Riley.

    Even though North Carolina was seen as one of the RGA’s top pickup opportunities this election cycle, public polling had shown that Robinson was trailing Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein.

    A Cook Political Report and BSG survey released on Aug. 15 revealed that Stein held a seven-point lead over Robinson. When undecided voters were included, Stein’s lead increased by another point. This marked a significant shift from May when polling showed the race tied.

    As of Friday, Trump had no plans to withdraw his endorsement of Robinson, but he did not mention him once at a rally in North Carolina over the weekend.

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    I Am Donald J. Trump. FEAR NOT! There are those who will do whatever it takes to stop us, but I will never stop fighting for you. I will never surrender! Your support means everything to me. Together, through our UNITY, we will Make America Great Again!
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