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Polling Expert Gives Candidate 66% Chance Of Winning Election

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Bad news for Biden…

Polling expert Nate Silver is predicting Donald Trump finds himself back in the White House.

Silver was acclaimed in 2012 for correctly picking the winner of every state between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney and confidently forecasting an Obama victory. He was bullish on Hillary Clinton in 2016 but cautioned Trump had a reasonable chance.

“The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden),” Silver, who formerly ran polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight, wrote in his “Silver Bulletin” substack

Silver’s forecast model, based on 40,000 simulations, found Trump had a 65.7% of winning the electoral college, compared to Biden, who had a 33.7% chance. However, Biden is slightly favored to win the popular vote. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the presidency with a slew of narrow swing state wins.

“If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 1 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied,” Silver wrote.

The data expert wrote that there was still time for Biden to turn things around and suggested the president give the nomination to Vice President Harris or someone else at the Democratic convention. However, he wrote, “Disclaimer: that also might be a terrible idea.”`

MAGA Congresswoman Topples GOP Challenger, ‘Squad’ Democrat Defeated

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Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons

A sign of a Republican wave?

Popular MAGA firebrand Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) cruised into her congressional re-election primary campaign to victory Tuesday night.

Boebert’s win comes after switching districts to a more Republican-heavy area after a narrow win in 2022.

Boebert advanced past a six-way Republican primary in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District in a race to replace outgoing Republican Rep. Ken Buck.

Fox News shares more:

The Colorado Republican said she made the switch to CO-04 to ensure another Republican could win her old district, which she nearly lost in 2022 and had blamed outside groups for targeting her. But Boebert left the district having already become a fundraising magnet for the likely Democrat candidate, who has pulled in millions that may help him flip a district that has leaned Republican in recent years.

Boebert is expected to also win the November general election in the district. Its voters overwhelmingly backed former President Trump in 2020.

Republicans on the opposite side of the country are also celebrating a significant Tuesday win when progressive Democrat Jamaal Bowman (N.Y.) suffered a double-digit loss. New York’s Republican Party celebrated the first ouster of a “Squad” member since the progressive coalition’s inception in 2018 to Westchester County Executive George Latimer, a pro-Israel moderate Democrat. 

“Good riddance, Jamaal. Every socialist in Congress and the State Legislature should likewise be rooted out of public office,” New York GOP Chair Ed Cox said in a statement Wednesday. “Jamaal Bowman just faced the consequences of his disgraceful actions. From his childish fire alarm stunt to his blatant anti-Semitic remarks and his latest public meltdown, Bowman has repeatedly shown he is unfit for office.” 

Latimer welcomed his victory with a message of unity. 

“Tonight we turn a page, and we say that we believe in inclusion of everybody in our representation. That you are included, no matter what your demographic is. Doesn’t matter your age, the color of your skin, your religion, sexual identity, whether you’re a right hander or left hander, whether you’re a Met fan or a Yankee fan,” Latimer joked. 

“We go to Washington, we’re one of 435. But we’re not the only one. You know, good men and women in Washington who feel the same way we do, and we have to find each other and link with each other. We have to look at arguments of the far right and the far left and say you cannot destroy this country with your rhetoric and your arguments,” he said, garnering cheers from the crowd. “We have to have unity all across that continuum, and if you hold a strong belief, you still must work with other people don’t share that belief because America hangs in the balance.” 

Judge Partially Lifts Trump Gag Order

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Gavel via Wikimedia Commons Image

Trump is elated…

On Tuesday, a New York judge partially lifted a gag order imposed on former President Trump’s speech in his hush money criminal case.  

The updated terms allow Trump to resume speaking about trial witnesses like Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels.

The partial lift however will allow Trump to address the jury who convicted him last month on 34 criminal charges, though the former president remains under a separate protective order that prohibits him from publicly disclosing their identities. 

The gag order remains in place when it comes to prosecutors overseeing the case, except for District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) as well as Judge Juan Merchan.

Judge Juan Merchan initially granted prosecutors’ request for a gag order that precluded Trump from making public statements about any witnesses in the case, jurors, prosecutors, court staff, or members of their family. Trump was not restricted from commenting on the judge or Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

The Hill reports:

Merchan reluctantly lifted those restrictions, saying it would be his “strong preference” to extend the jurors’ protection. 

“However, circumstances have now changed. The trial portion of these proceedings ended when the verdict was rendered, and the jury discharged,” Merchan wrote in his ruling. 

The partial lifting of the order comes just days before the first 2024 presidential debate on Thursday where Trump is expected to address his conviction in the case.

This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

Campaign Manager Bluntly Throws in the Towel in Florida

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Ron DeSantis via Gage Skidmore Flickr

A pointless pursuit…

Despite Democrats’ attempts to make a dent in Florida, President Joe Biden’s campaign manager knows when it is time to call it quits.

In an interview that Puck’s John Heilemann described as a “rare and candid conversation,” Jen O’Malley Dillon was asked about the Biden team’s strategy for 2024, including what states the campaign viewed as true battlegrounds they could win.

Mediaite has more:

Heilemann: If you boil it down, what you’re saying is that 2020 was a national election; there were battleground states, but you ran the campaign like a national referendum on Trump. But in 2024, you’re running a half-dozen targeted state campaigns—which gets us to the topic of your paths to victory. I named six states [Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia]. You’d agree those are battlegrounds, yes?

O’Malley Dillon: Yes.

And you’re saying you see North Carolina also as a battleground state?

Yes.

Florida?

No.

Thank you. I was afraid you were going to lie.

“The job of the campaign is to keep as many battleground states in play for as long as possible so we can navigate any flexibility in the race,” O’Malley Dillon explained, pointing out how Biden had won Georgia and Arizona in 2020 despite those states not being “in play at all at this point” in the election cycle, “and certainly were not traditional battleground states.”

O’Malley Dillon’s comments come just days after Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison visited Tallahassee for a Florida Democratic Party (FDP) rally and told reporters there he viewed the state to be “in play.”

In 2020, Biden successfully won 270 Electoral College votes without Florida and it seems his campaign may be forced into a similar approach.

Trump Scores Support From Another Billionaire

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Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

Trump is scoring big…

Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood said she would vote for former President Trump over President Biden in the November presidential election.

Wood took part in an interview with ‘Meet Kevin’ financial analyst and YouTuber Kevin Paffrath, during which she was asked the popular question, “Trump or Biden?”

Wood told the host she has three children with whom she has discussed the upcoming election and its consequences.

“As I’ve said to them, ‘Look, I am going to vote for the person who’s going to do the best job for our economy,’” Wood told Paffrath. “I am a voter when it comes to economics, and on that basis, Trump.”

She further explained that Laffer Associates founder and chairman Art Laffer “describes the first three years of the Trump presidency as the best in U.S. economic history, not the last one because of COVID, and I would agree.”

Watch:

The informal endorsement comes on the heels of several billionaires sending money and support toward Trump’s presidential campaign. (RELATED: Billionaire Makes Massive Political Contribution To Trump)

Timothy Mellon, heir to the Mellon banking fortune, made a $50 million contribution to the pro-Trump super PAC, Make America Great Again Inc.

In a memo following Mellon’s donation, the PAC announced it had reserved $100 million in advertising through Labor Day.

The New York Times continues:

Mr. Mellon is now the first donor to give $100 million in disclosed federal contributions in this year’s election. He was already the single largest contributor to super PACs supporting both Mr. Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent. Mr. Mellon has previously given $25 million to both.

Billionaire Stephen Schwarzman, the CEO and co-founder of Blackstone, announced last month he will back Trump in the 2024 race after he previously called for the Republican Party to turn to a “new generation of leaders.”

Trump To Deliver Remarks In Chesapeake, Virginia

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Gage Skidmore Flickr

Donald J. Trump plans to deliver remarks in Chesapeake, Virginia on Friday, June 28th at 3 pm.

Trump released a statement:

Joe Biden’s America is expensive. Bidenflation has spiked the cost of goods by more than 20% under Biden, costing Virginia households more than $27,000. 

It costs more to eat, drive, and live under Joe Biden. Virginians have spent $9,173 more on transportation, $4,210 more on energy, $3,115 more on food, and $5,547 more on shelter on average since January 2021. 

It’s not only more expensive to live in Virginia thanks to Joe Biden, but also more deadly. Biden’s pro-criminal and open border policies have caused a 22.8% increase in fentanyl overdoses from 2020-2021 and another 1,951 Virginians killed by fentanyl poisoning in 2022. 

Virginia, a place that President Trump loves, has been decimated by weak Joe Biden. 

President Trump will ease the financial pressures placed on households and re-establish law and order in this country! We can Make America Great Again by tackling lawlessness head-on, ceasing the endless flow of illegal immigrants across our southern border, and reversing the detrimental effects of inflation by restoring people’s wealth. 

Want to register for tickets? Click HERE!

Doors open at 11 am and Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks at 3 pm at Historic Greenbrier Farms.

Check back for a live stream of the event below:

Trump Makes VP Decision, Drops Big Hint

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Trump has chosen his running mate…

Over the weekend, Trump told NBC News ahead of a rally in Philadelphia that he’s settled on a vice presidential choice.

“In my mind, yeah,” Trump said when asked if he’s decided.

Asked if his pick knows it’s them, Trump responded, “No, nobody knows.”

Trump also noted that “most likely” this person will be at his debate next week.

“They’ll be there,” he added. “I think we have a lot of people coming.”

Trump was also interviewed at the retail stop by Fox News’ Alexis McAdams and discussed the timing of his running mate announcement.

“I’ll be announcing it right around the time of the convention,” Trump reiterated to Fox News, as he pointed to the Republican National Convention, which kicks off on Monday, July 15 in Milwuakee.

Sources familiar with the process have told The Hill the front-runners for the position are North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Sen. JD Vance (Ohio) and Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.).

Others who received vetting materials and are under consideration include Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson.

Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin (R) is also rumored to be among those considered for the position. Trump reportedly plans to join the Virginia Republican for a rally following the first debate.

CBS News reported the Trump event would likely take place Friday near Virginia Beach, a second source said, though the final location had not been finalized.

Polling has shown Virginia could be a much closer race than it was in 2020, when Biden carried it by 10 percentage points over Trump.

Fox News poll of Virginia registered voters conducted June 1-4 showed Biden and Trump tied with 48 percent each. A Roanoke College poll conducted in mid-May showed the two candidates tied in a head-to-head match-up, and it found Biden leading Trump by 2 percentage points when third-party candidates were added.

Youngkin also faced speculation he may mount his own presidential bid against Trump before saying he was committed to completing his term as governor/

Steve Bannon Asks Supreme Court to Intervene in Effort to Avoid Prison

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Duncan Lock, Dflock, CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons

He’s pulling out all the stops…

Steve Bannon filed an Emergency Application with the Supreme Court asking for intervention in his four-month prison term for defying a Congressional subpoena from the House Select Committee investigation of the events of January 6th.

The application comes just hours after an appeals court denied his request for a bid to delay his prison sentence.

Bannon’s legal team argued the sentence would impede his role as a top adviser to Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign. Prosecutors dismissed this claim and said Bannon’s “role in political discourse” is irrelevant to the case, stressing the principle of “equal justice under the law.”

“There is no dispute that Mr. Bannon ‘is not likely to flee or pose a danger to the safety of any other person or the community if released’—indeed, he has been out on release for years now without incident.” reported CBS’s Scott McFarlane who read the application.

American Liberty News has more:

“There is also no denying the fact that the government seeks to imprison Mr. Bannon for the four-month period immediately preceding the November presidential election,” McCotter added. “There is no reason for that outcome in a case that presents substantial legal issues.”

Late Thursday, a federal appeals panel denied Bannon’s efforts to stay out of jail in a 2-1 decision. The majority opined that Bannon “knew what the subpoena required yet intentionally refused to appear or to produce any of the requested documents.”

In a dissenting opinion, Judge Justin Walker — an appointee of former President Trump — wrote that Bannon should not be incarcerated before the Supreme Court considers the appeal of his conviction.

“Applicant Mr. Bannon seeks the narrow relief of continued bail pending completion of his further appeals—relief that Judge Walker would have granted below, as explained in his dissent,” McCotter wrote. 

This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

Illinois Republican Party Leader Resigns

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The chairman of the Illinois Republican Party has called it quits.

On Wednesday, state GOP chair Don Tracy said in his resignation notice that party infighting is largely to blame for his decision.

“When I took on this full-time volunteer job in February, 2021, I thought I would be spending most of my time fighting Democrats, helping elect Republicans, raising money to pay for more Party infrastructure, and advocating for Party unity,” state GOP chair Don Tracy wrote in his resignation notice.  

“Unfortunately, however, I have had to spend far too much time dealing with intra party power struggles, and local intra party animosities that continued after primaries and County Chair elections,” he continued.  

Tracy also noted the recent controversy involving former vice chair Mark Shaw at the Republican National Committee (RNC) election which resulted in his ouster.

“Recent events including the RNC Committeeman election, immediately followed by the retribution sacking of the losing candidate Vice-Chair Mark Shaw, a long time State Party leader and worker, without due process and without taking any step to disciplining others for alleged or admitted Convention misconduct, portends a direction of the State Party I am not comfortable with,” Tracy wrote.  

Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Tracy’s resignation comes less than a month before the Republican National Convention will be held in Milwaukee

In his letter, Tracy refuted claims that his resignation had already been reported by a Chicago Tribune story published the day before, where anonymous sources suggested to the news outlet that Tracy could soon see himself removed as well.  

“My resignation has nothing to do with today’s anonymously sourced Chicago Tribue article. I made my decision to resign early yesterday morning, communicated it to Matt Janes before our 10am staff call yesterday, and began drafting this notice yesterday shortly before or after the staff call,” Tracy wrote. 

Article Published With The Permission of American Liberty News.

Supreme Court Upholds Trump-Era Tax

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Duncan Lock, Dflock, CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons

The Supreme Court upheld a Trump-era tax on overseas investments Thursday morning, marking what CNN is calling a win for the Biden administration.

In a 7-2 decision, the court rejected arguments from a Washington state couple that threatened existing tax provisions and hindered Democratic ambitions of instituting a wealth tax:

At issue in the closely watched tax case was whether the government could levy a tax on investment proceeds that had not yet been received. Charles and Kathleen Moore, a Washington state couple, challenged a $15,000 tax bill they received because of their investment in an India-based company. The profit at issue, the Moores claimed, were reinvested and never distributed to them.

The tax involved was enacted by Congress in 2017 as part of a larger package signed by former President Donald Trump. The one-time mandatory repatriation tax was levied on shareholders on undistributed profits accrued between 1986 and the end of 2017 by certain foreign corporations that are majority owned by Americans. The provision was expected to raise $340 billion over a decade.

Some conservative groups warned that a win for the government could open the door to a federal tax on wealth, which President Joe Biden and several congressional Democrats have eyed in recent years. But during oral arguments in December both conservative and liberal justices appeared to be looking for a narrow outcome that wouldn’t undermine current taxes or dip into the debate over a wealth tax. And Kavanaugh repeatedly said the ruling shouldn’t impact the debate.

Kavanaugh authored the majority opinion, emphasizing that the ruling was “narrow” and did not address the broader debate. “Those are potential issues for another day, and we do not address or resolve any of those issues here,” the justice explained.

Justice Clarence Thomas wrote the dissent.

Aside from the legal issues involved, Moore v. US drew attention to the Supreme Court for other reasons. Democrats on Capitol Hill had called for Justice Samuel Alito to recuse himself because one of the lawyers representing the Moores co-authored two favorable opinion pieces about the justice in the Wall Street Journal last year.

Here is a general outline of what a wealth tax in the United States might look like, based on past proposals from lawmakers:

  • Tax Rate: Often proposed rates range from 1% to 3% annually on wealth exceeding certain thresholds.
  • Threshold: The tax typically targets ultra-wealthy individuals, with thresholds starting at $50 million in net worth.
  • Assets Included: The tax would apply to a wide range of assets, including stocks, bonds, real estate, and personal property.
  • Exemptions: Primary residences and certain retirement accounts may be exempt or subject to different rates.
  • Administration: Proposals often include measures to ensure proper valuation and reporting of assets to prevent evasion.
  • Revenue Use: Revenue generated would be intended for social programs, infrastructure, and reducing economic inequality.

Surveys conducted in recent years generally show majority support for higher taxes on the wealthy, with specific support for a wealth tax varying by poll but often in the range of 50-60%.

Article Published With The Permission of American Liberty News.