Why GOP Red Wave Failed in 2020 But is More Likely in 2024
ANALYSIS – After the disappointing ‘Red Ripple’ last week the Republican questioning and blame game quickly began.
I wrote that the GOP failed to win more seats because it did not forcefully address the abortion issue by countering the left’s hysteria over the Dobbs decision.
I also argued that former President Trump didn’t help Republicans by continuing to obsess over the 2020 election and making the 2022 election all about loyalty to him.
And I still believe those were major factors.
However, conservative commentator Mark Levine provides an added perspective as to why (mathematically) 2022 could never have been a ‘Red Wave’ midterm election.
And also explains why a congressional ‘Red Wave’ is far more likely in 2024.
His point is that the electoral map simply favored Democrats over Republicans this year as far as how many seats were up for grabs in Congress.
And how many were Democrats vs Republicans?
As Fox News reported:
“I noticed that many of the same people who were wrong about a red wave are now telling us what to think about a non-red wave. The experts, the consultants, the ruling class, the media, the politicians. We need to think for ourselves, enough of the static,” the host said over the weekend. “I said before the election, and I said repeatedly here and on radio: Forget about the red wave. Forget about a red tsunami. Forget about Armageddon and vote.”
In the Senate, Republicans had to defend 20 of the 34 seats up for re-election. To win the majority, Republicans would have had to “tap into” the 14 Democrat incumbent seats, the host explained.
“That was a tall hill to climb. And this is one of the reasons I wasn’t on this red-wave bandwagon so fast,” he said. “I needed to think about it. 2024. This is the key. The next election cycle, 33 seats are up. Now, listen to this. Two-thirds of them are Democrat seats. So the Democrats have to defend 23 Senate seats. The Republicans have to defend only ten.”“So,” he continued, “the math in 2022 never really led to a red wave possibility and the math in 2024, it does lead to a red wave possibility. Does that mean there will be one? Of course not. But I’m just explaining the math, the simple math. We had about 60% of the seats up. They have almost 70% of the seats up in the next round. So what does that mean? Democrats needed to have some serious gains in the Senate last week to stave off a disaster in 2024. They failed miserably.”
So, while the congressional ‘Red Wave’ never materialized in November, because it likely never could, the GOP and conservatives are now very well positioned to make big gains in 2024.
And that includes retaking the Senate. Fox News continued:
Looking ahead to 2024, Levin said Republicans have a much higher chance of pulling off a true “red wave” than they did in last week’s midterms.
“In 2024, [Democrats are] in a horrendous situation when two-thirds of the Senate seats that are up are Democrat seats, and they’re [now] celebrating that they only lost the House by a relatively few votes, but they lost the House. And the GOP can now block these radical kook programs that Biden’s pushing. They can conduct investigations. They can do what they need to do, and they damn well better.
But this will only happen if the GOP picks the right candidate at the top of the ticket in 2024, and also makes its case in a far better way than it did just now.
Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.
