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Judge Judy Labels Trump Hush Money Case ‘Nonsense’

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Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

A waste of time and taxpayer dollars…

“Judge Judy” Sheindlin called Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s (D) hush money case against former President Trump “nonsense” in a recent interview.

“You gotta twist yourself into a pretzel to figure out what the crime was. [Bragg] doesn’t like him — New York City didn’t like him for a while,” Sheindlin said of Trump in a “Who’s Talking to Chris Wallace?” interview streaming Friday on Max.

“I would be happier, as someone who owns property in Manhattan, if the district attorney of New York County would take care of criminals who were making it impossible for citizens to walk in the streets and use the subway, to use his efforts to keep those people off the street, than to spend $5 million or $10 million of taxpayers’ money trying Donald Trump on this nonsense,” the longtime TV judge told Wallace.

Watch:

“I, as a taxpayer in this country, resent using the system for your own personal self-aggrandizement,” the “Judy Justice” personality said of Bragg.

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Asked by the CNN anchor what she thought of Trump, the 81-year-old former Manhattan Family Court judge replied, “I think he was a good businessman, a real estate guy. And he was certainly terrific on ‘The Apprentice.’”

The celebrity judge’s comments come as the Manhattan DA seeks an extension of the restraining order against former President Donald Trump. (RELATED: Manhattan DA Seeks Extended Gag Order Against Trump Amid Death Threats To Bragg)

They argue that Trump’s public statements have increased tensions and led to threats against Bragg and his team before Trump’s July 11 sentencing.

The Manhattan District Attorney’s Office charged Trump with 34 counts of falsifying business records as part of a hush-money scheme to prevent porn star Stormy Daniels from speaking out about her alleged extramarital affair before the 2016 presidential election.

Before Trump, no sitting or former president ever faced criminal charges. This is the lowest level felony in New York, any potential sentence will more than likely be served after the 2024 election.

As The New York Times reports:

The order, issued before Mr. Trump’s Manhattan criminal trial began in mid-April, bars him from attacking witnesses, jurors, court staff and relatives of the judge who presided over the trial, Juan M. Merchan.

Mr. Trump’s lawyers have sought to have the order lifted since Mr. Trump’s conviction in late May. But in a 19-page filing on Friday, prosecutors argued that while Justice Merchan no longer needed to enforce the portion of the gag order relating to trial witnesses, he should keep in place the provisions protecting jurors, prosecutors, court staff and their families.

Article Published With The Permission of American Liberty News

Amanda Head: Is Bud Light Feeling Enough Pain?

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Mike Mozart, CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons

Bud Light’s latest partnership with transgender activist and influencer Dylan Mulvaney has proved to be a public relations nightmare for the brand. Will Bud Light recover?

Watch Amanda explain the situation below:

Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

Amanda Head: Supreme Court Smacks Down All The Dems’ Favorite Issues!

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Duncan Lock, Dflock, CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons

The Supreme Court just dealt a crippling blow to Democrats’ radical agenda for America. It’s about time.

Watch Amanda explain the situation below:

Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

‘Deranged’ Leftist NY Judge Declares Trump Guilty of Fraud Before Trial Begins

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Gavel via Wikimedia Commons Image

ANALYSIS – In what is only the latest weaponized, partisan legal action against former President Donald Trump, the far-left Democrat New York state attorney Letitia James and her leftist cohort Justice Arthur Engoron have just found Trump guilty of civil fraud before his trial even began.

Never mind that the case is obscene to begin with and should not even exist. And the law it is based on is obscene as well and should not exist either. Andrew McCarthy explains in National Review:

James, an ambitious progressive authoritarian who campaigned for office on a vow to weaponize the Empire State’s legal processes against Trump, decided to package the scraps [of leftover fraud charges no one else could prosecute] into a lengthy civil complaint. After all, she had a secret weapon: New York’s Executive Law 65(12), which empowers an abusive prosecutor to put partisan enemies out of business without having to prove anything. Although this provision purports to outlaw “repeated” and “persistent” “fraud” and/or “illegality,” in reality, as I explained last week in a column for The Messenger:

“The law doesn’t require a showing of harm. The state need not prove the defendant even intended to defraud anyone, much less actually defrauded someone. It need not be established that any creditor or financial institution even relied on the defendant’s misrepresentations, that those misrepresentations were material, or that anyone was actually fooled by them. The state just has to show that a defendant made false claims with enough “persistence” and “repetition” that at least two persons were “affected” — which, whatever it means, is not a synonym for ‘harmed.’”


Claiming Trump significantly overvalued his properties and assets when presenting his company’s financials to banks and lenders and that this somehow “affected” someone, James is seeking at least $250 million in penalties, a ban against Trump and his sons Donald Jr. and Eric from running businesses in New York, and a five-year commercial real estate ban against Trump and the Trump Organization.

The accusations are that Trump inflated the value of assets by $1.9 billion to $3.6 billion annually between 2011 and 2021 to save hundreds of millions on loans and insurance.

This, even though no one has been claimed to have been harmed, and all financial institutions take self-declared valuations like those made by Trump, with a grain of salt when making loans and other major financial decisions.

Bankers and insurance executives have a fiduciary obligation to conduct their own due diligence to determine what they believe are fair market valuations of assets. And they always do.

And as McCarthy further explains, everyone involved knew Trump exaggerated just about everything:

…this was for political consumption and the burnishing of celebrity. In the league of sophisticated financial actors in which Trump plays, where corporate departments are dedicated to valuation analysis because that’s the bread-and-butter of finance, nobody took this nonsense seriously. Indeed, Trump even included a “worthless clause” in his SFCs which, in so many words, warned that they were apt to be, you know, somewhat less than perfectly accurate. Many of the financial institutions that did business with Trump did so for years, and knew exactly the cat they were dealing with. They made loans and indemnified Trump because they knew, based on their own expertise and experience with him, that he was quite wealthy (even if not as wealthy as he claimed) and that he would pay up.

But that didn’t stop Justice Engoron, who ruled preemptively on September 26 that James had proven Trump and his co-defendants fraudulently inflated his assets. 

Engoron, in his ruling, ordered the cancellation of certificates that 10 of Trump’s business entities need to operate some of his marquee properties — including Trump Tower and his golf clubs in New York — and said he would appoint independent receivers to oversee their “dissolution.”

The judge thus essentially imposed the corporate death penalty on Trump’s businesses BEFORE the trial even began.

Trump responded in a post on his Truth Social platform the day of the ruling, calling accusations that he committed fraud “ridiculous and untrue,” and hit back, calling Engoron a “DERANGED” judge.

In this case, I must agree with Trump’s wording. The judge is deranged, but he is also a partisan hack and embarrassment in what is already a highly partisan and embarrassing New York judicial system.

Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

Christianity is Dying in the West, and Islam May Be Taking Over the Rest

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Photo via Pixabay free images

ANALYSIS – While many of us recently celebrated the birth of Jesus Christ, also known as the ‘Prince of Peace,’ 2023 brings a year of danger and turmoil, with multiple regional flash points that could lead to a major war.

But longer term, another global danger is brewing, more slowly, but inexorably.

This danger is mostly political, ideological, and religious.

And while it may take a couple of more decades to come to pass, this steady shift will have profound historic repercussions and will change the world mostly for the worse.

I am talking about the steady death of Christianity in the U.S. and Europe, and the global growth and potential dominance of Islam in large parts of the world. 

And this future looks bleak.

Symbolically, as we just celebrated Christmas, let’s begin with the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem. It is built above the site where Jesus was reportedly born on the West Bank of the Palestinian territories.

It still broadcasts beautiful Christmas Eve services worldwide on TV.

However, most who watched the service on TV aren’t aware that the Christian population of Bethlehem, the birthplace of Christianity, has been decimated under Muslim rule.

It has plummeted from 85% in 1947 to 15% today.

Christians worldwide aren’t faring too much better.

There are now 2.2 billion Christians in the world, at least nominally. But Islam has 1.97 billion followers, and rising. 

And Islam is growing in two ways – it is advancing by the sword and the cradle. 

Islamist extremist violence, terrorism, insurgency, and war, which in a major victory just recaptured Afghanistan, is spreading extremist Islam from the Middle East to Africa at a rapid pace.

Meanwhile, combined with the militant spread, a higher global Muslim fertility rate (2.9 children per woman, versus 2.6 for the rest of the world), means that by 2075, Islam will be the world’s dominant religion.

And where Islam is dominant as a religion it is also dominant politically and legally, as the Prophet Mohammed prescribed.

Of course, Islamist apologists, and Christian-hating leftists, will immediately denounce any criticism of Islam as racist or ‘Islamophobic.’ 

So let me quickly note that hundreds of thousands of Christian American soldiers have fought, and died, on multiple battlefields to defend Muslims, everywhere from Bosnia to Iraq and Syria to Afghanistan, and even Africa.

I personally served as a Marine Corps officer and military attache’ in Arab Muslim countries as well as in Bosnia where we were protecting Muslims.

I also spent many long days and nights during several months last year, remotely from Washington, DC trying to save hundreds, if not thousands of our Muslim brothers and sisters abandoned in Afghanistan by Joe Biden.

I also did what I could to help these worthy allies come and relocate to the U.S. when possible.

I did this due to my Christian values, my family’s experience being abandoned by another Democratic administration in another previously allied country (JFK and Cuba), as much as my sense of patriotic duty.

Sadly, we likely will never see the actions on a similar scale in reverse.

But the issue is far beyond whether individual Muslims are good, Christians are bad, or vice versa. The issue is what a world dominated by Muslim values, politics, and law – versus one which has been dominated by Christianity – will look like.

And based on what we see in too many Islamic-led countries today, that future will be far worse than what we have now.

Most, if not all, of our western liberal values the left hold so dear, and so do many conservatives, originate directly from Christianity, and indirectly from Judaism. 

Yes, Christianity, when wrongly wedded to the state during the Middle Ages, was often used by ruthless monarchs to justify war and intolerance.

But that history is long gone, along with the politically powerful royal families of Europe.

Since at least the reformation, Christianity, including my own Catholic Church, has been free of the state and has been (even if imperfectly) a bulwark of tolerance, peace, and positive social change.

Sadly, the same cannot be said of Islam.

Though many call Islam a religion of peace, Islam literally means submission, and bloody jihad has been integral to its core since Mohammed. 

And except when it has been effectively contained by the West, Islam has been an aggressive militant force.

And while Christianity during the past few centuries has firmly returned to its peaceful, almost pacifist, roots of Christ, its founder, Islam struggles with the fact that at its core and founding, Islam is violent and intolerant.

As was Mohammed – Islam’s founder – the warrior prophet.

And whereas in the West we have the separation of church and state, based in part on Jesus’ teaching of ‘give unto Caesar what is Caesar’s, and unto God what is God’s,’ in Islam it’s the opposite.

There is no similar separation in Islamic tradition. Islam is as much a political ideology and legal structure as it is a religion. 

And though the vast majority of individual Muslims are good, peaceful, tolerant, and loving people, Islam itself allows for officially sanctioned violence and intolerance. 

It all too often even rewards it.

And this is why to this day, a small but significant minority of Muslims openly support violence.

As Boston Herald columnist Don Feder writes in the Washington Times:

…worldwide, 8% of Muslims say suicide bombings are “sometimes” or “often” justified in the name of Islam. That 8% may not seem like much, but it means more than 100 million condone coldblooded murder to defend perceived attacks on Islam.

Feder adds: “Even in the West, many Muslims want to live under Islamic law (Sharia), where adulterers are stoned to death and converts to other faiths are murdered.”

To be more precise he notes: “In Russia, where Islam is expected to be the largest religion by 2050, 42% of Muslims support Sharia, as do 71% in Nigeria, 46% in France and 40% in the United Kingdom.”

Feder continues:

While Muslims in the West demand tolerance, Christians rarely get it under Islam. In Egypt, Coptic churches are bombed, congregants shot, and girls kidnapped and forced to convert. All over the Middle East, ancient communities have been uprooted.

Meanwhile, half the population growth worldwide between now and 2050 will be concentrated in Africa, including Congo, Nigeria, and Tanzania. 

The growth there is much more by the sword than the cradle, as all these countries have active violent Islamist insurgencies.

In Europe it is the opposite. Europeans are simply dying off by choice, and being replaced, often by Muslims.

Feder explains:

…the European fertility rate is 1.49, well below the replacement level of 2.1. Europe lost 1.1 million people last year. That’s the first rumbling of a coming earthquake. The fertility rate for European Muslims is 2.54. You don’t need to be a statistician to see which way the demographic winds are blowing.

It’s estimated that by 2085, 13 European countries will have Muslim majorities — this in a continent once known as Christendom. Christians are writing their own obituary by failing to heed the commandment to be fruitful and multiply.

And while in the United States, Islam has not yet become big enough to endanger our liberal western culture and legal system, there have been rumblings and testing of our resolve. 

This usually occurs at the local level where Muslims may dominate, and opportunistic ‘civic’ leaders may use that as leverage to try to force change in their favor.

However, the bigger threat in America is simply the loss of Christianity. And the moral and spiritual vacuum that this is creating. 

Christianity, the former bedrock of American society and the system it was built on, has rapidly declined in the U.S. from 91% as recently as 1976 to 73.7% in 2016, to 64% in 2022.

A third of the clueless Generation Z (or ‘Zoomers’) say they are unaffiliated with any religion or denomination.

According to a recent Pew Research study, Christians will be a minority of 47% in this country by 2050.

So, a belated Merry Christmas to all. We won’t be celebrating it as much in the not-too-distant future.

Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

Army Special Ops Command Proudly Flies ‘Pride’ Flag

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Marcha del orgullo en Paraná, Entre Ríos, Argentina. Noviembre de 2021 via Wikimedia commons

ANALYSIS – Please just stop! – Even as the U.S. armed services toned down their politically driven, identity and sexual politics pandering for Pride Month this year, it seems the commanding general of U.S. Army Special Operations Command (also known as ARSOC) didn’t get the memo.

Please note that ARSOC (or USASOC) includes some of our finest warriors, including the 75th Ranger Regiment, Army Special Forces (Green Berets) and 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment-Delta (or Delta Force – the Army’s equivalent of the Navy SEALs).

In what I consider an obscene post across multiple social media accounts, including Twitter, Instagram and Facebook, the commander of ARSOC, Lt. Gen. Jonathan P. Braga, either knowingly, or unknowingly, allowed his public affairs peons to celebrate Pride Month with the most bizarre leftist flag there is – as of now.

It’s the “intersex-inclusive Pride Progress” flag.

I say “as of now” because we have come a long way from a simple rainbow flag to represent gays. As I wrote earlier, the latest Pride flag, along with the leftist ideology that it’s based on, is constantly morphing.

It first added black and brown stripes to represent the Black Lives Matter (BLM) racial agenda. Then it added pink and baby blue for transgenderism, only to add purple and yellow for those who call themselves nonbinary.

And it is daily adding more elements and colors as the movement expands to include everything the left now advocates, even if it makes less sense each time.

The intersex symbol on this flag is the left’s latest add. It is a purple circle on a yellow background in the chevron on the left of the flag.

And it seems totally redundant.

Brietbart explains:

According to an article from Boston University, “intersex” is defined as “those whose bodies do not align with the gender binaries of males or females. This includes those with both genitals or other differences.” The colors yellow and purple are meant to be seen as “nonbinary colors,” the article stated.

The flag also included light blue, pink, and white, which, according to the article, represent, respectively, boys, girls, and “those who are transitioning, have no gender, or are gender neutral.”

This latest ‘intersex-inclusive Pride Progress’ flag is not only bizarre and visually hideous, but it also represents an extreme left-wing political and sexual ideology that divides us instead of uniting us.

The ARSOC post also made the oft-repeated claim that: “Throughout American history, LGBTQ+ members have not only fought for the right to serve openly, but have also fought in every major war and conflict.”

I tweeted my own reply to that, asking for the names of just a couple of specific LGBT individuals from every conflict and noted that I was especially interested in those that were T.

I doubt too many intersex transgenders fought at Yorktown or Gettysburg. Or even WWII or Korea.

Breitbart also posted some comments to the ARSOC post that pointed out we already have one all-inclusive flag:

A former Green Beret posted in response: “And you jackasses wonder why the military as a whole can’t even meet its recruiting goals? There’s only one flag you should be proud of, the one we fought under and many of our brothers and sisters died under.”

It continued:

Sara Carter, Fox News Contributor and host of the Sara Carter Show, blasted the command’s posts, tweeting:

.@USASOCNews
My husband was in Special Operations Command for more than 16 years and continued to serve beyond – but he fought for the American flag not the LGBTQ flag

See, here’s the problem – The American flag represents all Americans and the rights we cherish – we don’t need the bizarre multi-colored flag to appreciate freedom my husband and so many others (gay or not) risked their lives for or lost their lives for – your priorities are so F’ked up

Indeed, we should only fly one flag – the American flag. It’s the one we fight for, and it includes all of us.

Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

Amanda Head: Hugh Jackman Goes Insanely Woke

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Another Hollywood hero has gone woke!

“X-Men” Actor and Broadway performer Hugh Jackman says that gender-specific awards are a thing of the past!

Watch Amanda explain the newest controversy below:

European Parliament Member Warns COVID-19 Pushed Western Democracy to the Brink of Collapse

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Freedom Convoy, Ottowa, Canada 2022 via Wikimedia Commons

Christine Anderson, a member of the European Parliament and a member of Germany’s conservative Alternative for Germany (AfD) party says that freedom, Democracy, and the rule of law are on the brink of collapse in Western nations and the Covid-19 pandemic is partially to blame.

“We are now violating what we thought was the foundation our societies were built on,” Anderson said.

Anderson recently completed a tour in Canada visiting the Freedom Convoy and decided to take the opportunity to attend this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) which is known to host thousands of conservative supporters, activists, and lawmakers to draw attention to the threats currently facing Western democracy.

The Freedom Convoy is a series of ongoing protests and blockades in Canada against Covid-19 vaccine mandates and restrictions. The convoy was originally created to protest vaccine mandates for crossing the United States border but later evolved into a protest about oppressive Covid-19 restrictions in general.


Freedom Convoy 2022, Ottawa, Canada (February 12, 2022) via Wikimedia Commons

The German politician noted that her concerns are focused on Western democracy, admitting she doesn’t expect governments in China, North Korea, or even Russia to value ideals like freedom and rule of law.

“I hold the Western democracies to a higher standard, but we are now violating what we thought was the foundation our societies were built on and a really scary thing is that all these Western democracies seem to be in lock-step right now with whatever agenda they are trying to implement and push,” she explained. 

The right-leaning EU parliament member says it’s time for the people to hold countries accountable for their actions. 

“What is Democracy all about?” Anderson questioned. “Democracy is all about the people telling the government what to do, not the other way around.”

Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, Americans were forced to shutter businesses, close schools, and blindly agree to take newly released vaccinations. And if anyone dared speak against the latest narrative regarding vaccines or the virus? They could expect to be ridiculed, questioned, and ostracized by friends, family, co-workers, and even leaders in government.

“The whole narrative about ostracizing people was frustrating…the whole narrative of ‘my choice my body’ was gone. People were ridiculed and scapegoated,” the German politician reflected.

In 2021, President Joe Biden insulted Americans who had yet to receive “the jab” conveniently forgetting the fact he had cast doubt on the vaccines while Donald Trump was in the White House.

“If you’re not vaccinated, you’re not nearly as smart as I thought you were,” Biden said.

President Biden was an outspoken critic of former President Trump’s Operation Warp Speed program which is largely credited for helping create and distribute Covid-19 vaccines.

“The way [then-President Donald Trump] talks about the vaccine is not particularly rational,” 

Biden said per the Western Journal. “He’s talking about it being ready, he’s going to talk about moving it quicker than the scientists think it should be moved. … People don’t believe that he’s telling the truth, therefore they’re not at all certain they’re going to take the vaccine.”

“And one more thing,” he said. “If and when the vaccine comes, it’s not likely to go through all the tests that needs to be and the trials that are needed to be done.”

However, while Covid-19 was able to highlight some government corruption Anderson says this dangerous assault on democracy has been happening for decades.

“We’ve seen a full-blown gaslighting of the people.” Anderson said. “Now, fundamental rights are being discussed as though they are privileges that the government grants or withholds depending on the citizen’s behavior.”

But all hope is not lost. The German politician was optimistic that more people have “woken up” over the past three years and are ready to push back.

“The so-called pandemic highlighted the left’s pressure campaign to redefine certain concepts,” Anderson reckoned. “It highlighted their ridiculousness and their willingness and determination to push back against people, disenfranchise them, and take away their rights.”

Anderson noted that her home country came dangerously close to repeating history by enacting legislation that would have forced unvaccinated citizens to pay for their own medical treatments or even be turned away for treatment altogether. 

Germany’s public healthcare system ensures free healthcare for all.

“My country has been there historically,” Anderson warned. “This is exactly the stuff totalitarianism is made of. I had hoped that the Germans had learned their lesson, but I have to say they have not learned a damn thing.”

However, despite what some could call insurmountable odds Christine Anderson said she’s ready to take a stand against anti-democratic efforts whenever she sees it and refuses to let history repeat itself.

“I will always say what I believe to be true. When I see parallels between another totalitarian regime I will be there and I will point it out.”

Discredited Ex-CISA Chief Says Election Lies and Denial a ‘Risk to Democracy

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Missvain, CC BY 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons

ANALYSIS – Apparently now to flailing Democrats, everything is a ‘threat to democracy.’ So much so that Chris Krebs, the discredited former head of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) is joining the liberal chorus.

He simply replaced the term ‘threat’ with ‘risk.’

“Threat to democracy’ is the Democrats’ 2022 version of ‘Russia collusion.’

Recall that Krebs was fired by then-President Trump in 2020 after Krebs, without any way to confirm, stated that the 2020 election was the “most secure” ever. 

CISA is part of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and is tasked with“strengthening cybersecurity and infrastructure protection across all levels of government.”

However, while it plays a role in elections, and coordinates with the states, it is not the ultimate arbiter of whether election fraud occurred, or whether there were irregularities.

There is no ultimate arbiter of that, except maybe the American people.

Regardless, Krebs is now joining Team Biden in wailing about the ‘risk to democracy’ posed by Trump, his supporters, and many GOP politicians.

During a Washington Post Live event on Monday, Krebs said that election-related falsehoods and misinformation represent “a tactical and strategic risk to democracy,” citing the number of election denialists running for statewide offices that “have the ability to determine the certification of the 2024 election,” as well as the chilling effect that election-related lies can have on voter turnout. 

As Defense One reports:

Krebs said that lies about the 2020 midterm elections—as well as falsehoods about the accuracy of the midterm elections—exist, because “it’s a great fundraising mechanism” for the former president, his allies and political candidates, and also because “it’s a great clout-chasing mechanism.”

“It’s a benefit to them from an incentive perspective,” Krebs added. “And I think the real harm is that it is shifting the Overton window, it’s shifting what’s politically acceptable in American political discourse into something that’s much more dangerous and much more violent.”

To combat these claims, Krebs said it’s important for Republican lawmakers, in particular, to speak truthfully about the voting process and election security. 

Some of what he says is valid, and I do agree with Krebs’ last point; something Democrats ignore as they push for government efforts to quash free speech.

The best way to combat false claims by politicians (a constant for millennia, but now called ‘disinformation’), is by counterarguments. 

This is the essence of America’s democracy – the marketplace of ideas.

While I believe we must ensure our elections are secure, this involves far more than worrying about, or demonizing free speech as so-called ‘disinformation.’

It involves election integrity of the voting process, mail-in ballots, voter ID, and a range of other concrete issues Democrats ignore, rebuff, and refuse to address.

And yes, there are foreign threats to America’s elections, such as Russian and Chinese hacking and influence operations, which I have repeatedly noted, and these should also be a primary focus of our federal government. 

As Krebs added: “We’ve seen reports lately of Russia, China, and Iran back at their old tricks, and it is going to create a very chaotic environment.” 

Indeed, Mr. Krebs.

That too is a ‘risk to our democracy, and it is where the government can have the most impact in securing our elections without unconstitutionally targeting Americans or their freedom of speech.

Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

Pollsters Missed the Target – Overreacted to Favoring Dems by Favoring GOP in Midterms

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Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

ANALYSIS – ‘Red ripple.’ For at least the last several elections, pollsters have consistently oversampled Democrats and undercounted Republicans, wrongly skewing the polls in the Dems’ favor.

This is something I have written about before, and the pollster errors include the ‘shy Trump supporter’ effect where conservatives simply shun pollsters or avoid giving their true views out of fear of retribution or being ‘canceled.’

Frank Luntz, a political strategist said to The Hill: “We knew from 2016, 2018 and even 2020 that Trump voters tended not to respond to pollsters because they thought that the results would be used against them.” 

This time around the pollsters seem to have screwed up in the opposite direction, overcompensating by overweighting Republican supporters and predicting a ‘Red Wave’ in the midterm elections that never materialized.

I must admit, I too assumed that the pollsters would continue to err in favor of Dems and hence believed the polling was still undercounting Republicans.

But as they say – you should never assume because then you make an ‘ass out of u and me.’

And as Luntz added, “past errors caused pollsters to over-index Republicans.”

The Daily Caller News Foundation just did a solid analysis on this latest pollster screw-up.

As the Daily Caller reports:

Weighting Republican respondents more heavily than Democratic respondents in polls led to an overestimation of GOP support, which created the mirage of a “red wave” this midterm season, polling experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

In the House of Representatives, FiveThirtyEight, based on an aggregation of major polls, predicted a 228-seat GOP majority as the most likely outcome, while RealClearPolitics had projected at least 227 seats, with additions from 34 tossup races. In the Senate, FiveThirtyEight forecast 51 seats for the GOP, with 52 and 53 seats being as likely, while RealClearPolitics forecast 53 seats for Senate Republicans.

The results were significantly different from these projections. Though some races are yet to be called, Democrats retained control of the Senate, having won 50 seats as of writing, while Republicans, though projected to win the House, will have a narrow majority close to the 218 seats necessary for one.

The Daily Caller continues:

In the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, former President Donald Trump significantly overperformed polling in several states that pegged him to lose, with his unexpected 2016 wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and North Carolina giving him an Electoral College majority to win. Though Trump lost the 2020 election, he still won states like Florida and Ohio and came close to winning races in Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania, which polling firms had estimated would be easily won by Joe Biden.

In all, in 2020, polls underestimated the presidential popular vote, swing-state vote, Democratic House majority and the Democratic Senate majority. The American Academy of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) called it the “worst performance for polls since 1980.”

And this appears to have caused the severe pollster overcompensation we saw leading up to the midterms.

In artillery, you often fire beyond (long) and before (short of) a target to close in on it and ‘fire for effect.’ This is called ‘bracketing.’

The idea is that on the third salvo you should hit the target close to spot on.

Let’s see if these varied pollster results that undercounted GOP voters and then overcounted them were the ‘bracketing’ needed prior to their getting the 2024 polls right.

I’m not optimistic. GAND

Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.