Random

    Opinion

    Home Opinion

    Pollsters Missed the Target – Overreacted to Favoring Dems by Favoring GOP in Midterms

    By
    Madeleine Jackson
    -
    0
    Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

    ANALYSIS – ‘Red ripple.’ For at least the last several elections, pollsters have consistently oversampled Democrats and undercounted Republicans, wrongly skewing the polls in the Dems’ favor.

    This is something I have written about before, and the pollster errors include the ‘shy Trump supporter’ effect where conservatives simply shun pollsters or avoid giving their true views out of fear of retribution or being ‘canceled.’

    Frank Luntz, a political strategist said to The Hill: “We knew from 2016, 2018 and even 2020 that Trump voters tended not to respond to pollsters because they thought that the results would be used against them.” 

    This time around the pollsters seem to have screwed up in the opposite direction, overcompensating by overweighting Republican supporters and predicting a ‘Red Wave’ in the midterm elections that never materialized.

    I must admit, I too assumed that the pollsters would continue to err in favor of Dems and hence believed the polling was still undercounting Republicans.

    But as they say – you should never assume because then you make an ‘ass out of u and me.’

    And as Luntz added, “past errors caused pollsters to over-index Republicans.”

    The Daily Caller News Foundation just did a solid analysis on this latest pollster screw-up.

    As the Daily Caller reports:

    Weighting Republican respondents more heavily than Democratic respondents in polls led to an overestimation of GOP support, which created the mirage of a “red wave” this midterm season, polling experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

    In the House of Representatives, FiveThirtyEight, based on an aggregation of major polls, predicted a 228-seat GOP majority as the most likely outcome, while RealClearPolitics had projected at least 227 seats, with additions from 34 tossup races. In the Senate, FiveThirtyEight forecast 51 seats for the GOP, with 52 and 53 seats being as likely, while RealClearPolitics forecast 53 seats for Senate Republicans.

    The results were significantly different from these projections. Though some races are yet to be called, Democrats retained control of the Senate, having won 50 seats as of writing, while Republicans, though projected to win the House, will have a narrow majority close to the 218 seats necessary for one.

    The Daily Caller continues:

    In the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, former President Donald Trump significantly overperformed polling in several states that pegged him to lose, with his unexpected 2016 wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and North Carolina giving him an Electoral College majority to win. Though Trump lost the 2020 election, he still won states like Florida and Ohio and came close to winning races in Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania, which polling firms had estimated would be easily won by Joe Biden.

    In all, in 2020, polls underestimated the presidential popular vote, swing-state vote, Democratic House majority and the Democratic Senate majority. The American Academy of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) called it the “worst performance for polls since 1980.”

    And this appears to have caused the severe pollster overcompensation we saw leading up to the midterms.

    In artillery, you often fire beyond (long) and before (short of) a target to close in on it and ‘fire for effect.’ This is called ‘bracketing.’

    The idea is that on the third salvo you should hit the target close to spot on.

    Let’s see if these varied pollster results that undercounted GOP voters and then overcounted them were the ‘bracketing’ needed prior to their getting the 2024 polls right.

    I’m not optimistic. GAND

    Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

    Amanda Head: Trump Does More for Ohio Town Victims Than Biden

    By
    Amanda Head
    -
    4

    They say actions speak louder than words…

    Former President Trump is stepping up as Joe Biden continues to let Americans down. Less than three weeks ago, a train carrying hazardous chemicals derailed in East Palestine, Ohio in an event that could have a devastating impact on the environment and community.

    Despite the ongoing chaos, the Biden administration has been slow to act…no surprise there.

    Watch Amanda break down the situation below:

    Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

    Amanda Head: Debunking Leftists’ Lies About Thanksgiving

    By
    Amanda Head
    -
    3

    Every year as families and friends gather to give Thanks a coalition of left-wing woke harpies descend on the holiday to remind you to make sure to politicize every aspect of your life. In recent years liberals have targeted the controversial story of Thanksgiving as a way to attack White colonizers and sing a song of sympathy for Native Americans.

    Watch Amanda de-dunk the biggest lies peddled by the left about Thanksgiving.

    Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

    Trump’s Voter Citizenship Requirement Blocked By Federal Judge

    By
    Seijah Drake
    -
    5

    In a controversial decision that critics say undermines basic electoral integrity, U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly issued a preliminary injunction Thursday blocking the Trump administration from implementing key provisions of its election reform order — including a requirement that individuals provide proof of citizenship when registering to vote in federal elections.

    The Trump administration’s order, signed in March, sought to address the widespread public concern over election security by aligning U.S. registration standards with those used by many developed nations — where proof of citizenship is a basic requirement to cast a vote. Yet, in her ruling, Judge Kollar-Kotelly sided with Democratic operatives and partisan groups, granting their request to halt implementation of what should be a commonsense safeguard.

    It’s already a felony for noncitizens to vote in federal elections. So why oppose a mechanism to verify that voters are, in fact, eligible citizens? The administration’s proposed policy simply sought to enforce existing law, not change it. But for activists and partisan lawyers, that’s apparently too much.

    Critics of the ruling argue that it demonstrates a disturbing disconnect between legal theory and electoral reality. While the plaintiffs claimed the executive order infringes on the “Elections Clause” of the Constitution — which delegates much of the authority over elections to the states — the Trump order targeted the federal voter registration form, which is a product of federal law and administered by a federal agency.

    Among the more absurd arguments presented during the case was the suggestion that requiring proof of citizenship would complicate voter registration drives at grocery stores and public venues. In other words, ensuring that only citizens vote is too inconvenient for activists looking to register voters en masse.

    But this framing reveals the central issue: voter registration is being treated like a political campaign tactic, not a civic responsibility. If accuracy and integrity are seen as barriers to convenience, something is deeply wrong with the system.

    If the courts won’t even allow the federal form to be updated to reflect current law, critics argue, how can Americans have confidence that elections are fair and secure?

    Ironically, while liberal groups celebrate the decision as a “victory for voters,” many Americans see it as a victory for loopholes and ambiguity. The same people who insist elections are sacred and democracy is under threat are now openly opposing the most basic eligibility checks used around the world.

    Meanwhile, Trump’s other proposed reforms — including tighter mail ballot deadlines and review of voter rolls against immigration databases — were allowed to stand. But with the citizenship requirement blocked, many worry that the core vulnerability in the system remains unaddressed.

    When noncitizens can easily register to vote — intentionally or accidentally — and the federal government is barred from checking, who exactly benefits?

    This article originally appeared on American Liberty News. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of Great America News Desk. It is republished with permission.

    READ NEXT: President Trump Signs Executive Order Requiring Proof Of Citizenship To Vote In Federal Elections

    Amanda Head: Will Trump Be Arrested?

    By
    Amanda Head
    -
    1
    Arrest image via Pixabay

    Will authorities arrest former President Donald Trump this week?

    Watch Amanda explain the controversy below:

    Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

    Woke Disney Executives Back Out of Meeting with Victims of Communist Chinese Genocide

    By
    Donny Ferguson
    -
    5
    Jrobertiko, CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons

    Executives from the liberal Disney corporation are now under fire from Congress for backing out of a meeting with victims of Communist China’s brutal dictatorship, with whom Disney has partnered and is increasingly changing corporate policies to please.

    Disney had initially agreed to meet with and listen to members of the ethnic and religious Uyghur community, who are targets of a brutal campaign of genocide by Beijing leaders.  The meeting came after Disney was loudly criticized for ignoring and glossing over Chinese human rights abuses while promoting the film “Mulan,”

    U.S. House Select Committee on China Member Jim Banks (R-IN) is now hammering Disney CEO Bob Iger after Disney representatives for cut-off communications with Uyghur advocates and genocide victims and backed out of a promised on-the-record meeting.

    “Disney executives pulled out of an off-the-record meeting with Uyghur genocide victims. It couldn’t have been to protect Disney’s public image or bottom line, so maybe the executives were just worried about a good night’s sleep,” said Banks.

    “Whatever the reason, Disney publicly praised Chinese Communist Party agencies committing genocide and then privately scorned their victims. It’s time for Disney to own up to its mistakes and make amends,” said Banks.

    “In September 2020, U.S. lawmakers and human rights groups from around the world condemned Disney for its decision to film a live-action remake of Mulan in the Xinjiang Uyghur

    Autonomous Region (XUAR), the center of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) ongoing

    genocide against Uyghurs and other Turkic Muslim groups,” a letter from Banks to Iger begins.

    “While filming, Disney cooperated with Chinese security and propaganda authorities active in the XUAR, including ones complicit in Beijing’s human rights atrocities,” Banks reveals.

    “(I)n Mulan’s credits, your company thanked several Chinese government agencies

    participating in the genocide, including the Public Security Bureau of Turpan, which then President Trump placed on the Commerce Department’s Entity List in 2019 for ‘human rights

    violations and abuses’ against Uyghurs and other ethnic groups,” Banks continues.

    “Disney’s credits also expressed gratitude to the ‘Publicity Department of CPC Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region Committee,’ the CCP propaganda arm charged with covering up the abuses,” Banks writes.

    “Disney never apologized for partnering with and praising Chinese Communist Party agencies

    actively engaged in genocide,” Banks adds. 

    In response to the initial 2020 criticism, Disney agreed to meet with advocates for Uyghur victims.

    Communist China opposes such a meeting, and Disney has now backed out.

    “We are writing to request a meeting between you, other Disney executives, and a representative from the Uyghur American Association and the Uyghur Human Rights Project,” Banks writes.

    “We have no doubt that such a meeting would prove educational for your company and would be

    a simple first step in clarifying to millions of Americans that Disney does, in fact, care about the

    Chinese Communist Party’s systematic extermination of minority ethnic groups,” Banks concludes.

    Representatives Mike Gallagher, John Moolenaar, Neal Dunn, and Ashley Hinson cosigned Rep. Banks’ letter.

    Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

    Democrats Want To Legally Protect Pedophiles In Minnesota

    By
    Paul Crespo
    -
    5
    Arrest image via Pixabay

    ALERT – Could your state be next? In yet another insane proposal in the left’s radical ‘gender bending’ agenda, a bill in the Minnesota Legislature is changing the definition of “sexual orientation” to include pedophilia.

    This is an extreme and radical move that would make pedophiles a legally protected class of people in the state. And it isn’t getting the attention it deserves.

    This sickening bill, promoted by 17 of the state’s Democrats, is working its way through the legislature.

    It has a growing list of sponsors and has already had its “second reading,” which means it can appear on the floor for a vote at any time.

    Does this make the state’s Democrats “sexual groomers” of children?

    It seems so.

    It’s also a natural, if perverse, continuation of the extreme ideology which makes gender identity and transgenderism a priority for the left.

    The bill shows how their slippery slope works at the state level, which eventually moves to other states, and then to the federal government.

    First, you create a law that makes sexual orientation a protected class by prohibiting discrimination of any kind based on sexual orientation. In Minnesota, as in many other places, that law has been around for a while.

    Laws like that are used to support countless far-left lawsuits, discriminatory quotas and all the Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives that are wreaking havoc across America.

    Then you quietly amend that law to remove a provision that excludes pedophilia as a legitimate sexual orientation.

    In this case, they have deliberately stricken the provisions of the current law that specifically carved out pedophilia from the definition of sexual orientation.

    The current law says: “Sexual orientation does not include a physical or sexual attachment to children.” [emphasis added]

    But in the new Democrat proposal, that line will be removed, essentially making pedophiles a protected class along with transgender people and every other sexual orientation the left can invent.

    Pedophiles will also get the same legal protections against discrimination as gays and lesbians, who legitimately deserve it, and be lumped together with them in the same legal category.

    While this amendment to current law won’t make pedophilia “legal” (yet) in Minnesota, discrimination against pedophiles will be prohibited if this bill becomes law.

    What does this actually mean?

    David Strom explains in Hot Air that:

    You will be subject to lawsuits if you discriminate against pedophiles. You have to hire them, house them, and serve them in your restaurant regardless of your objection to their evil desires. They will have more rights than you. Because they are pedophiles.

    Strom adds: “anybody who wants to opt out of affirming crazy people will be turned into targets of lawsuits and harassment.”

    And legalization will come soon after. He continues: “…the next stop is going to be explicitly legalizing pedophilia.”

    Strom notes how this part of the left’s slippery slope works, too:

    Once the Rubicon of declaring children mature enough to make lifetime medical decisions at ages as young as 8 it makes no sense to assert that they aren’t mature enough to engage in “consensual” relationships. If you can get permission from a child to sterilize and mutilate them, why stop there? They have been essentially declared adults in sexual matters.

    He concludes, not wrongly: “The Democrat Party is becoming the party of sexual groomers. It really is that simple.”

    Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

    Amanda Head: Biden Admin in Cahoots with Big Media to Hide the Truth!

    By
    Amanda Head
    -
    1

    The truth is finally coming out!

    Watch Amanda explain the controversy below:

    Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

    FBI Now Going After Its Critics as ‘Conspiracy Theorists’ Spreading ‘Misinformation’

    By
    Paul Crespo
    -
    14
    Arrest image via Pixabay

    ANALYSIS – Be very afraid. It just keeps getting worse. Under Joe Biden, the FBI is daily being further weaponized against its critics and critics of the administration’s chosen narratives.

    Following the disclosures that the FBI was in regular contact with Twitter employees to ensure they censored speech they designated ‘misinformation,’ the Bureau attacked anyone who criticizes them by, you guessed it – calling it ‘misinformation.’

    It also called these FBI critics – ‘conspiracy theorists.’

    This is a favorite leftwing buzz phrase often used to smear conservatives. 

    The most recent outrage came when the FBI made a statement to FOX News this week after journalists posted screenshots of messages showing how FBI agents communicated with top Twitter officials relating to reports and potential posts about Hunter Biden.

    In its response statement, rather than addressing the valid concerns, the Bureau slammed its critics as ‘conspiracy theorists’ spreading misinformation.’

    And one legal expert, constitutional law professor Jonathan Turley, is sounding the alarm.

    He told FOX News that it is a “menacing thing” for the nation’s largest law enforcement agency to declare that “combatting disinformation” is one of its top priorities, and then attack free speech advocates for criticizing them.

    The Epoch Times reports:

    A spokesperson for the FBI told Fox News, in response to several “Twitter Files” installments, that “conspiracy theorists” are “feeding the American public misinformation” and said they are trying to discredit the bureau and its agents.

    That statement, Turley told Fox News, is “disturbing” because the FBI has allegedly “attacked many of us who were raising free speech concerns and called all of us collectively ‘conspiracy theorists spreading disinformation.’

    “It was highly inappropriate, because the FBI has said that combatting disinformation is one of its priorities. So, it is a very menacing thing when you have the largest law enforcement agency attacking free speech advocates,” Turley, a professor of law at George Washington University who served as an expert witness during former President Donald Trump’s first impeachment inquiry, told the outlet.

    The FBI’s outrageous response comes after journalist Michael Shellenberger wrote about the outrageous FBI-Twitter collusion:

    “What I quickly put together is a pattern where it appears that FBI agents, along with former FBI agents within the company [Twitter], were engaged in a disinformation campaign aimed at top Twitter and Facebook executives, as well as at top news organization executives to basically prepare them, prime them, get them set up to dismiss Hunter Biden information when it would be released.”

    Turley noted that Twitter’s new owner Elon Musk “has confirmed that the FBI paid social media companies to help them deal with what they called disinformation, which most of us call censorship.”

    Turley added to FOX that the FBI “were in continuous communication [with Twitter], as were other agencies, targeting specific citizens and specific posters to be banned or suspended.”

    “That really does smack of an agency relationship and that could violate the first amendment,” he warned.

    But be very afraid, because things are now getting worse.

    Now the FBI may also be coming after anyone who points out this clear and demonstrated FBI-Big Tech collusion for being a “conspiracy theorist” spreading “misinformation.”

    Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

    Amanda Head: Fiction Becomes Fact

    By
    Amanda Head
    -
    0

    Sometimes reality is even stranger than fiction…

    Is conservative satire site Babylon Bee psychic?

    Let Amanda explain the controversy below:

    Opinions expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of Great America News Desk.

    123...40Page 1 of 40
    © Great America News Desk 2022