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Nate Silver’s Forecast: Harris Now Favored Over Trump In 2024 Election

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Donald Trump via Gage Skidmore Flickr

In a significant shift, Vice President Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump in the latest 2024 election forecast from data expert Nate Silver. According to Silver’s “Silver Bulletin” election model, Harris currently holds a 58% likelihood of winning the presidency, compared to Trump’s 42%.

This marks a reversal from early September, when Trump had over a 60% chance of victory. Silver attributes the shift to changes in polling data. He noted that Harris has gained a 3-point lead nationally and has been performing well in key battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina.

The exception is Arizona, where Harris has struggled in recent polling, but Silver noted it has only a 5% chance of being the tipping-point state.

While Silver still categorizes the race as a toss-up, he suggested that Harris’s hand appears stronger. He also pointed to positive economic revisions, which he said have bolstered Harris’s chances.

Silver explained that Harris has two viable paths to securing the Electoral College, whereas Trump’s options appear more limited. Harris could win the presidency even if she loses all the toss-up states, provided she secures Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Mediaite has further details on Harris’ “Plan A” and “Plan B” pathways to victory:

Silver’s latest write-up of his forecast notes that Harris, unlike Trump, has two solid routes to winning the Electoral College. Harris can lose all the toss-up states while winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and still become president.

Silver calls this “Plan A” – the long talked about “blue wall” that crumbled in 2016 for Hillary Clinton. Silver explains that Harris also has a “Plan B” if one of those states falls – despite her polling up in all three. Harris can win “North Carolin, Georgia, or both” in order to still get to 270 – especially as she’s in striking position in Nevada and ahead in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

Trump, on the other hand, must win all of the toss-up states and at least one of the three “blue wall’ states.

As recently as a few weeks ago, Silver’s model had Trump leading Harris in betting odds. However, recent developments have reshaped the landscape as the 2024 election approaches.

Silver’s full analysis is available by clicking here.

Trump Calls To Impeach Democrat Leader Over Supreme Court Comments

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By The White House - https://www.flickr.com/photos/202101414@N05/54581054338/, Public Domain,

President Donald Trump is turning up the heat on House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — and floating a move that isn’t even constitutionally possible.

In a fiery Truth Social post Sunday night, Trump demanded to know why the New York Democrat isn’t being impeached after branding the U.S. Supreme Court “illegitimate” over its latest Voting Rights Act ruling.

“Hakeem Jeffries, a Low IQ individual, said our Supreme Court is ‘illegitimate.’ After saying such a thing, isn’t he subject to Impeachment?” Trump wrote. “I got impeached for A PERFECT PHONE CALL. Where are you Republicans? Why not get it started? They’ll be doing this to me! President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

The post quickly ignited backlash — and confusion — since members of Congress aren’t subject to impeachment under the Constitution. Instead, lawmakers can only be expelled by a two-thirds vote of their chamber.

Still, Trump’s message was clear: he wants Jeffries gone.

The clash comes days after the Supreme Court’s 6–3 decision striking down Louisiana’s second majority-Black congressional district, ruling it was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

Chief Justice John Roberts described the district as a “snake” drawn along racial lines, while Justice Samuel Alito called the map an “unconstitutional gerrymander” and framed the ruling as an “update” to how courts interpret the Voting Rights Act.

Trump praised the decision, calling it the “kind of ruling I like.”

Jeffries, meanwhile, unloaded on the high court.

“Today’s decision by this illegitimate Supreme Court majority strikes a blow against the Voting Rights Act and is designed to undermine the ability of communities of color all across this country to elect their candidate of choice,” he said.

“It’s an unacceptable decision, but not an unexpected decision,” Jeffries added. “Because this isn’t even really the Roberts Court. It’s the Trump Court.”

He also accused the ruling of helping Trump “scheme to suppress the vote and rig” upcoming elections.

Trump wasn’t having it — and fired back with his impeachment call, even as constitutional reality undercuts the demand.

Jeffries brushed off the attack with a short jab of his own on X: “Jeffries Derangement Syndrome,” a play on Trump’s long-used “Trump Derangement Syndrome” line.

The ruling has sparked outrage across liberal media circles, with commentators like Al Sharpton, Abby Phillip, and legal analyst Paul Butler slamming the decision and arguing it shows the court does not “respect” the rights of minority voters.

But for Trump, the focus isn’t the ruling — it’s the rhetoric.

And he’s making it clear he wants Republicans to escalate the fight.

Trump’s demand — even if constitutionally misplaced — comes at a time when expulsion threats are no longer theoretical on Capitol Hill.

Just weeks ago, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) resigned from Congress as sexual misconduct allegations mounted and colleagues began weighing an expulsion vote.

“I am aware of efforts to bring an immediate expulsion vote against me and other members,” Swalwell said at the time. “Expelling anyone in Congress without due process… is wrong. But it’s also wrong for my constituents to have me distracted from my duties. Therefore, I plan to resign my seat in Congress.”

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) stepped down the same week under similar pressure, with both lawmakers facing potential removal by their colleagues.

Most recently, Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) announced she is resigning from the House of Representatives after Republicans vowed to force a vote to expel her from the chamber for committing a bevy of violations involving financial misconduct. 

“Rather than play these political games, I choose to step away so I can devote my time to fighting for my neighbors in Florida’s 20th District,” she wrote on social media. “I hereby resign from the 119th Congress, effective immediately.”

“This fight is far from over,” Cherfilus-McCormick, who was indicted by a grand jury last year for allegedly stealing COVID-19 emergency funds, added in her statement. 

The House Ethics Committee found “clear and convincing evidence” in March that the Florida Democrat misused federal disaster relief money that was improperly paid to her family’s healthcare company, among other misconduct. 

She is facing 53 years in prison as part of a separate criminal indictment.

White House Responds To Reports Trump Plans To Fire Another Admin Official

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President Donald Trump answers questions from members of the media aboard Air Force One en route to Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania, for a rally on the economy, Tuesday, December 9, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)

The White House is forcefully denying a new report that President Trump is preparing to fire Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard—just one day after ousting Attorney General Pam Bondi in a major Cabinet shakeup.

White House Communications Director Steven Cheung dismissed the report outright, saying Trump has “total confidence” in Gabbard and that “any insinuation otherwise is totally fake news.”

“The President has assembled the most talented and impactful Cabinet ever, and they have collectively delivered historic victories on behalf of the American people,” Cheung added in a post on X.

The response came after a report from The Guardian claimed Trump had begun quietly exploring Gabbard’s potential replacement, even polling Cabinet members about the idea.

According to the report, Trump has been privately frustrated with Gabbard’s handling of internal dissent—particularly her defense of former counterterrorism official Joe Kent, who resigned in protest over the administration’s military operations in Iran.

“Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby,” Kent wrote in his resignation letter, shortly after U.S. and Israeli forces carried out joint strikes.

Gabbard, a longtime critic of U.S. intervention abroad, declined to publicly rebuke Kent—fueling tensions inside the administration. Trump has been “venting frustration that she shielded a former deputy who undercut his rationale for war with Iran, according to two people briefed on the discussions,” the report said.

Her recent congressional testimony added to the strain. When pressed by lawmakers, Gabbard refused to offer her personal view on the legality of the Iran strikes—a position consistent with her past skepticism of executive war powers, but one that reportedly irritated the president.

Despite the internal friction, it remains unclear whether Trump is prepared to act.

“It is not clear that Trump will actually fire Gabbard over the episode,” the report noted, adding that “currently, there is no standout candidate to take the job, and advisers have cautioned that creating a high-profile vacancy before a successor is ready could cause unhelpful political distractions.”

Trump himself has sent mixed signals. When asked aboard Air Force One whether he still had confidence in Gabbard, he offered only a lukewarm endorsement:

“Yeah, sure,” Trump said. “I mean, she’s a little bit different in her thought process than me, but that doesn’t make somebody not available to say it.”

The episode comes at a sensitive moment for the administration. Trump’s decision to remove Bondi marked the most significant personnel shakeup of his second term—and raised new questions about whether additional changes could follow.

For now, the White House is trying to shut down that narrative. But with tensions simmering over foreign policy—and Trump’s track record of abrupt personnel moves—the speculation is unlikely to fade anytime soon.

Special Prosecutor Assigned To Trump 2020 Election Case

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President Donald Trump participates in a welcome ceremony with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Al Saud at the Royal Court Palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Tuesday, May 13, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

A new twist has emerged in the Fulton County election interference case against President Donald Trump. On Friday, a special prosecutor was appointed to replace embattled District Attorney Fani Willis (D), who was disqualified after a court found her romantic relationship with a top prosecutor created an appearance of impropriety.

Peter Skandalakis, executive director of Georgia’s Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council (PAC), announced that after failing to find another willing candidate, he would step in personally to oversee the case.

“Several prosecutors were contacted and, while all were respectful and professional, each declined the appointment,” Skandalakis said in a statement. “Out of respect for their privacy and professional discretion, I will not identify those prosecutors or disclose their reasons for declining.”

The move came just as a judge-imposed deadline loomed for PAC to name a new prosecutor—or risk seeing the entire case dismissed.

Skandalakis explained that while “it would have been simple” to let the deadline expire, he believed “that was not the right course of action,” citing the public’s interest in ensuring the matter is resolved properly.

The Georgia court’s decision to remove Willis cast major doubt on the future of the case, which accuses Trump and several allies of racketeering and other charges related to challenging the 2020 election results. Trump and most of his co-defendants have pleaded not guilty, maintaining that they did nothing wrong in questioning the outcome of the election. Four others accepted plea deals.

With Willis out, Skandalakis now has full discretion over whether to continue pursuing the case or to drop the charges entirely.

“My only objective is to ensure that this case is handled properly, fairly, and with full transparency—discharging my duties without fear, favor, or affection,” he said.

This isn’t the first time Skandalakis has been involved in a high-profile matter stemming from Willis’s conduct. After she was previously barred from investigating Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R) due to her involvement in a political fundraiser against him, Skandalakis also took over—and ultimately declined to bring charges.

Citing that past experience, he said his familiarity with similar issues makes him the best candidate to take over the Trump case.

The original indictment accused Trump and more than a dozen associates of an “unlawful conspiracy” to challenge President Biden’s 2020 victory in Georgia. The case is one of several politically charged prosecutions targeting Trump during his campaign to return to the White House—the first criminal cases ever brought against a then-former U.S. president.

Trump was previously convicted in New York on business record charges tied to a 2016 hush money payment. Meanwhile, his two federal prosecutions—for alleged election interference and mishandling classified documents—were dismissed following his reelection to a second term.

PAC officials had confirmed as late as Thursday that no replacement had been found, suggesting the decision came together quickly.

On Monday, Skandalakis addressed Trump’s recent presidential pardons for several allies charged in the Georgia case, saying his office had “diligently” worked on the matter since Willis’s removal and would continue to do so “without being influenced by matters outside the scope of our assigned task.”

He also clarified that Trump’s pardons apply only to federal charges, not state cases.

“Therefore, the task before my office remains unchanged,” Skandalakis said.

Appeals Court Tosses Contempt Order Against Trump Officials

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    Gavel via Wikimedia Commons Image

    A federal appeals court panel voted 2-1 Friday to scrap a judge’s probable cause finding to hold Trump administration officials in criminal contempt for disobeying his order to turn around deportation flights ultimately destined for El Salvador.

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled the administration was entitled to an intervention because U.S. District Judge James Boasberg’s efforts to punish administration officials raised immediate concerns.

    “The order forces a coequal branch to choose between capitulating to an unlawful judicial order and subjecting its officials to a dubious prosecution,” wrote U.S. Circuit Judge Neomi Rao, who was in the majority.

    U.S. Circuit Judge Cornelia Pillard, an appointee of former President Obama, dissented. 

    “Even when faced with what reasonably appeared to him to be foot dragging, evasion, and outright disregard for his jurisdiction and his orders, he responded with unfailing composure,” Pillard wrote.

    “The majority does an exemplary judge a grave disservice by overstepping its bounds to upend his effort to vindicate the judicial authority that is our shared trust,” she continued.

    Boasberg entered the national limelight for being assigned the first lawsuit when Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act in March to swiftly deport alleged Venezuelan gang members to a notorious Salvadoran megaprison.

    At a hastily convened Saturday hearing that weekend, Boasberg ordered the administration turn around any airborne planes deporting migrants under the rarely invoked statute. The order was later wiped by the Supreme Court.

    Homeland Security May Be Forced To Give Up These Hidden Records On The Attempt On Trump’s Life

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      Americans may soon know more on the inexplicable failure of seemingly every security measure in the July 13, 2024 attempt on President Donald Trump’s life, after an ethics watchdog filed a sweeping lawsuit.

      The non-profit public interest law firm Judicial Watch reports it has “filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for records related to security provided for the July 13, 2024, rally in Butler, PA, during which there was an assassination attempt on President Trump (Judicial Watch Inc. v. U.S. Department of Homeland Security (No. 1:25-cv-00704)).”

      “Federal agencies need to come clean on the events that led up to the assassination attempts on President Trump,” said Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton. “It is now eight months since the first attempt, and the American people have yet to receive any answers under FOIA on the failures of the Biden administration to protect President Trump.”

      Judicial Watch reports the lawsuit was filed “after the agency failed to comply with a July 15, 2024, FOIA request to for:”

      All records, including emails, email chains, email attachments, text messages, video or audio recordings, photographs, outlook calendars, meeting minutes, correspondence, statements, letters, memoranda, reports, briefings, presentations, notes, summaries, requests for assistance, agreements, travel records, receipts, or other form of record, regarding providing support or manpower to President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign rally that was held in Butler, PA, on July 13, 2024.

      Judicial Watch notes the request “specifically sought records from the agency’s Homeland Security Investigations, which is believed to have helped provide security at the Butler event.”

      “On July 13, 2024, at a campaign rally in Butler, PA, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks attempted to assassinate President Donald Trump. After the attempt on President Trump’s life, former Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas named a bipartisan panel to conduct a 45-day independent review of the planning for and actions before, during, and after the rally,” Judicial Watch reports.

      Judicial Watch notes it has “an ongoing, independent investigation into the assassination attempts on President Trump,” writing:

      In August 2024, Judicial Watch received Secret Service records that showed the Secret Service has made it a top priority that “diversity and inclusion is not just ‘talked about’ – but demonstrated by all employees through ‘Every Action, Every Day.’” [Emphasis in original]

      Judicial Watch also uncovered records from the district attorney’s office in Butler County, PA, detailing the extensive preparation of local police for the rally at which former President Trump was shot, including sniper teams, counter assault teams and a quick response force.

      In response to a separate open records request, Judicial Watch obtained bodycam footage of the July 13 assassination events from the Butler Township Police Department.

      Judicial Watch reported that the FBI withheld information on a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for information about its coordination with the U.S. Secret Service regarding the July 13 Butler, PA, rally.

      On July 31, Judicial Watch reported that the United States Secret Service completely denied multiple Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for documents about the assassination attempt on former President Trump.

      CBS Parent Company In Talks To Settle Trump’s Lawsuit: Report

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        CBS parent company Paramount has entered discussions with President Donald Trump to settle a $10 billion lawsuit brought by the president

        Trump sued after CBS  aired an edited interview with former Vice President Kamala Harris, who at the time was Trump’s opponent in the presidential race.

        The Times reported that Shari Redstone, who is Paramount’s controlling shareholder, stands to make billions on a pending sale of the company to Skydance:

        Settlement discussions between representatives of Paramount and Mr. Trump are now underway, according to three people with knowledge of the talks. There is no assurance, though, that they will result in a deal, and it is unclear what the terms of any such deal might include.

        Shari Redstone, Paramount’s controlling shareholder, strongly supports the effort to settle, according to two people with knowledge of her thinking. Ms. Redstone stands to clear billions of dollars on the sale of Paramount, the media empire founded by her father Sumner Redstone, in a deal with Skydance, an entertainment company backed by the billionaire Larry Ellison and run by his son David.

        A settlement would be an extraordinary concession by a major U.S. media company to a sitting president, especially in a case in which there is no evidence that the network got facts wrong or damaged the plaintiff’s reputation.

        The heart of Trump’s lawsuit centers on a question directed at Harris about the Middle East from Bill Whitaker. A preview of her response aired during Face the Nation was different from the response viewers of 60 Minutes saw. Trump’s lawyers argued CBS made Harris look better in primetime by airing a crisper response.

        “CBS News said that Ms. Harris had given one lengthy answer to Mr. Whitaker’s question, and that the network followed standard journalistic practice by airing a different portion of her answer in prime-time because of time constraints,” the Times said.

        Obama Presidential Center Breaks Silence Over Controversial Building Plan

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          The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

          The Obama Presidential Center is responding publicly after years of criticism over its controversial design and rising costs, with a senior Obama Foundation official now attempting to justify the project to skeptics.

          Construction on the center began in 2021, but many Chicago residents have remained openly critical of the 225-foot-tall structure rising on the city’s South Side. The gray, largely windowless tower will house President Barack Obama’s presidential library and museum, departing sharply from the traditional design of most presidential libraries.

          Obama Foundation Deputy Director Kim Patterson said the building’s appearance — including its lack of windows — was intentional.

          “There are not a lot of windows on the building, but that’s intentional, because sunlight is just not a friend to the artwork and the artifacts that are going inside of the building,” Patterson told CBS News during a tour of the site.

          Patterson also defended the building’s symbolism, which critics have widely questioned.

          “The shape of the building was actually meant to mimic four hands coming together to show the importance of our collective action,” she said.

          Despite those explanations, the project has faced sustained backlash from local residents, architects, and fiscal watchdogs. Critics argue the design clashes with Chicago’s architectural heritage and resembles brutalist government structures. Some locals, quoted by the New York Post, have nicknamed the building “The Obamalisk,” a jab at its stark, monolithic appearance.

          The controversy has gone beyond aesthetics. In 2018, a lawsuit accused the City of Chicago of illegally transferring public parkland to the Obama Foundation, raising concerns about favoritism and misuse of public assets. That legal challenge was not resolved until 2022, fueling broader concerns about transparency and governance.

          Protests have also occurred at the construction site, with residents objecting to both the project’s footprint and its impact on surrounding neighborhoods. Patterson acknowledged that community resistance forced at least one major design change — the relocation of a parking garage.

          “If the parking garage was here, it could possibly block sunlight coming to their area, their gardens,” Patterson said.

          She noted that the foundation ultimately decided to place the garage underground.

          Fiscal concerns remain a major point of contention. When announced in 2017, the Obama Presidential Center was projected to cost $500 million. As of 2025, that figure has ballooned to approximately $850 million — an increase critics say reflects a pattern of cost overruns associated with Obama-era initiatives. While the foundation insists private donations are covering expenses, skeptics question whether additional public infrastructure and security costs will ultimately fall on taxpayers.

          The center is currently scheduled to open in June 2026.

          The criticism surrounding the Obama library stands in contrast to proposals discussed by President Donald Trump regarding his own future presidential library. Trump has floated plans to locate his library in Florida, potentially near Mar-a-Lago, emphasizing accessibility, private funding, and minimal disruption to public land. Supporters argue such an approach reflects Trump’s broader philosophy of limiting government entanglement and avoiding taxpayer burden.

          As debates over presidential legacies increasingly play out through massive construction projects, the Obama Presidential Center has become a flashpoint

          Special Counsel Obtains Warrant for Trump’s Twitter Account

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            Gavel via Wikimedia Commons Image

            Recently unsealed court filings show Special Counsel Jack Smith subpoenaed and obtained a search warrant related to former President Trump’s account on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.

            The case, which was decided in July, ordered X to turn over the documents sought by Smith and also fined the company $350,000 for a three-day delay in complying with a court order of the records.

            According to reports from The Hill, The Justice Department (DOJ) first sought the records in January.

            The filing details a months-long battle between X and the special counsel’s office over the efforts to get information tied to Trump’s account, with an appeals court backing a lower court ruling “in all respects.”

            “The district court found that there were ‘reasonable grounds to believe’ that disclosing the warrant to former President Trump ‘would seriously jeopardize the ongoing investigation’ by giving him ‘an opportunity to destroy evidence, change patterns of behavior, [or] notify confederates,’” the U.S. Court of Appeals for D.C. noted in its ruling.

            The lower court’s March ruling also found probable cause to search Trump’s Twitter account “for evidence of criminal offenses.”

            Congressional Investigators Issue Subpoena To Pam Bondi Over Epstein Files

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            The House Committee on Oversight and Accountability has issued a subpoena to Attorney General Pam Bondi, demanding she testify before lawmakers regarding the investigation of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

            The subpoena intensifies the growing conflict between Congress and the Justice Department over transparency and accountability.

            Lawmakers say Bondi’s testimony is necessary to comprehensively review files related to the deceased sex trafficker. The resolution to subpoena Bondi was introduced by Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) and passed in a bipartisan 24-19 vote.

            The Hill continues:

            All Democrats present for the committee hearing voted in favor, with Mace and GOP Reps. Lauren Boebert (Colo.), Tim Burchett (Tenn.), Michael Cloud (Texas) and Scott Perry (Pa.) joining their colleagues from across the aisle. 

            The subpoena of Bondi would bring the highest-level sitting official before the House panel as it pushes ahead with its review of the files related to deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. 

            Bondi has faced steady criticism over her handling of the files throughout her tenure as attorney general, cries that have only grown louder as the Justice Department has been accused of failing to release all the files and faced questions about how it has handled redactions.

            The Justice Department did not immediately respond to request for comment.

            Questions Over Missing Records

            The demand comes after a CBS News report on Tuesday stating that the Justice Department had started removing documents:

            After removing tens of thousands of files, the Department of Justice currently makes public about 2.7 million pages of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, a CBS News analysis found, a number below the Department’s initial claim of 3 million, and a total that continues to fluctuate.

            The Justice Department initially said that its release, made in response to a law passed by Congress compelling the agency to disclose nearly all files related to Epstein, comprised more than 3 million pages. Combined with previously released materials, the Department put the total at 3.5 million pages.

            And now, in part in response to widespread criticism and concern from survivors and their attorneys that the files contain nearly 100 survivors’ personal information and photos, the DOJ has scrambled to remove documents. A CBS News analysis found that as of late February, the Justice Department has taken down more than 47,000 files comprising about 65,500 pages. Links to those files now return a “page not found” error on the department’s website.

            Some of those removed documents contained explicit images or survivor information — including one document with unredacted photos of 21 survivors along with most of their birthdates. But the reasons for other files’ removal is unclear, such as a call log with all names redacted and images of Epstein’s jail bunk where investigators say he hanged himself. The Justice Department appears to be putting some removed files back up.

            Bondi Faces Questions

            Bondi has already faced intense questioning from lawmakers during recent oversight hearings about the department’s handling of the Epstein document releases.

            During those hearings, members of Congress pressed the attorney general about:

            • Extensive redactions
            • Missing records
            • Whether additional investigations tied to Epstein could still occur

            Epstein, a financier with connections to powerful political and business figures, was arrested in 2019 on federal sex trafficking charges involving underage girls.

            He died in federal custody later that year while awaiting trial.

            His associate Ghislaine Maxwell was later convicted of sex trafficking and is currently serving a federal prison sentence.

            This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

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