Former National Security Adviser John Bolton is sounding alarms over growing speculation that the Trump administration could take dramatic action against Cuba’s communist leadership — warning officials not to repeat what he called the “Venezuela game plan.”
Bolton, who has long advocated for hardline policies against authoritarian governments in Latin America, said Thursday he fears the administration could use newly filed criminal charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro as justification for a high-risk operation targeting the aging strongman.
“I’m a little worried that they’re going to try and run the Venezuela game plan and kidnap or snatch Raúl Castro, who’s 94 years old, under this indictment, which is perfectly justified, but it won’t change anything in Cuba, as it really hasn’t changed anything politically in Venezuela,” Bolton said during an appearance on NewsNation’s On Balance.
His comments come as tensions surrounding Cuba have intensified after the Justice Department announced murder charges against Castro and five others tied to the 1996 shootdown of two civilian humanitarian aircraft over international waters.
Federal prosecutors allege Castro authorized the Cuban military operation that destroyed the planes, killing four men — including three American citizens. The aircraft were operated by Brothers to the Rescue, a Miami-based humanitarian group that searched for Cuban migrants attempting to flee the island.
The indictment represents one of the most aggressive legal moves taken against senior Cuban officials in decades and has fueled growing speculation about whether the Trump administration is preparing a broader strategy aimed at regime change.
Bolton, despite supporting political change in Cuba, argued that removing a single figure would do little to dismantle the country’s entrenched communist system.
“In Cuba, you need the top echelon of government to depart the island, maybe for exile in Mexico or wherever they want to go, and we have to have a way to bring the government back under the control of the people,” he said, adding that such a process would “take some time.”
The administration has steadily increased pressure on Havana in recent months through legal, diplomatic, and economic measures.
A U.S. oil embargo implemented earlier this year has reportedly worsened Cuba’s already severe energy shortages. The island nation of roughly 10 million people has faced repeated rolling blackouts, while shortages of food, fuel, and medicine continue to strain daily life.
President Donald Trump has also declined to rule out military action. Asked this week about possible intervention in Cuba, Trump told reporters he would “be happy to do it.”
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said diplomatic solutions remain the administration’s preferred option but suggested hopes for peaceful negotiations are fading.
“The president’s preference is always a negotiated agreement that’s peaceful. That’s always our preference. That remains our preference with Cuba,” Rubio said in Miami before departing on an overseas trip.
“I’m just being honest with you. You know, the likelihood of that happening, given who we’re dealing with right now, is not high.”
Fueling further speculation, the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and its strike group recently arrived in the Caribbean, leading some observers to question whether Washington could be positioning military assets closer to Cuba.
Trump has dismissed suggestions that the deployment was intended as intimidation.
Bolton, however, questioned whether the administration had fully thought through what comes next.
“Is the Nimitz carrier strike group really equipped to take military action?” Bolton asked. “I mean, we have a real advantage in Cuba we didn’t have in Venezuela, we have the Guantánamo Bay Naval Base right there on the island, so that’s a, that’s a step forward, but this is something clearly we need to be talking to key figures in the opposition in Cuba, the Cuban American community, I’m sure can be extremely helpful here.”
“Let’s just think this through before we force it into something that could be very detrimental to the people of Cuba, if the army and the police stick with the regime,” he added.
The escalating rhetoric comes as questions continue to swirl over whether Washington’s pressure campaign is designed primarily to force concessions from Havana — or whether the administration is laying groundwork for something much larger.
